Pro Trader – Historical Trades

This page contains all the previously advised daily trades from Pro Trader.

Who Is Pro Trader?

ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi.  In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.

 


Trade Of The Day


Pre-Match Analysis

League:UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: BORUSSIA M’GLADBACH v SHAKHTAR DONETSK

Date:25th November 2020Time (GMT):17:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Borussia M’gladbach have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)
– Borussia M’gladbach have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)
– Borussia M’gladbach have not won in their last 2 Bundesliga matches
– Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams scoring in 4 of their last 5 away matches
– Shakhtar Donetsk have not lost in their last 5 away matches
– Shakhtar Donetsk have seen 4 of their last 5 away matches having over 2.5 goals

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– Earlier this month, Borussia M’gladbach won the reverse of this fixture 0-6 away

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Borussia M’gladbach

– Borussia M’gladbach’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Borussia M’gladbach’s latest home match record reads W1 D4 L0

– In Borussia M’gladbach’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored in 4

– In Borussia M’gladbach’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

 

Shakhtar Donetsk

– Shakhtar Donetsk’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Shakhtar Donetsk’s latest away match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 4 times once

– In Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Borussia M’gladbach go in to this match as big favourites, priced at just 1.53. However, this price doesn’t hold appeal, since it is anticipated that Shakhtar Donetsk will want to make amends for the 6 goal demolition suffered previously. Therefore, given both teams record of both teams scoring, this market holds better value. 

 

BTTS

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer relatively good value from a trading perspective at around 1.67.

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.7 – 1.75, which should be available less than 10 minutes in to the match, for 2 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a small loss, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the small loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If Borussia M’gladbach score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Shakhtar Donetsk scoring

– However, if Shakhtar Donetsk don’t appear to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If Shakhtar score in the first-half, this will be showing a decent profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave to run further if the home side have been creating chances on the expectation of them also scoring

 

BONUS TRADE:

With Shakhtar’s impressive away record (they also beat Real Madrid 2-3), combined with a less strong Borussia M’gladbach from their last meeting (including Plea, who scored a hatrick last time out), it is fancied opposing a home win holds value.

Predictology are also showing that backing Shakhtar at over 6 holds value.

However, a more conservative trade can be made laying Borussia M’gladbach at the start for 1.53 for 0.5 point.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: RENNES v CHELSEA

Date:24th November 2020Time (GMT):17:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Rennes have lost 5 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Rennes have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 14 matches (all competitions)

– Rennes have not scored in their previous three matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have won their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have not conceded in their last 4 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have conceded just one goal in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– Earlier this month, Chelsea won the fixture 3-0 at home

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Rennes

– Rennes latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Rennes latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Rennes last 5 matches, both teams have scored just once

– In Rennes last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored just once (1-1, against Spurs)

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred four times

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match clear favourites, priced at 1.56. However, this price doesn’t hold enough appeal, and so other markets are looked at for better value.

BTTS

With Chelsea’s impressive record of clean sheets, combined with Rennes lack of goals in their most recent matches, looking at this market, backing ‘No’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 2.14.

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 2.14 (the bottom price range at 2.06 would also be acceptable) at the start for 1 point.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Rennes not scoring (it is expected Chelsea will score)

(b) If Chelsea score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing a small loss, leading to:

– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Rennes not scoring

– This position could also be increased by 0.5 point at a favourable price if Rennes are lacking good chances

– However, if Rennes appear to be creating chances, then this should be closed

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL v LEICESTER CITY

Date: 22nd November 2020    Time (GMT):19:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 matches

– Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 63 home matches

– Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 6 matches against Leicester

– Leicester have won their last 6 matches

– Leicester have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these two teams played resulted in 0-4 away win for Liverpool in December last year

– Prior to that, Liverpool have won four with one draw

– In the last five matches played, goals over 2.5 with both teams scoring has occurred 4 times

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Leicester City

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W5 D1 L0

– Leicester’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Leicester’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool unsurprisingly go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.91. However, with their injury list including their top-scorer Salah being quarantined, it is more difficult to raise a case for a home win. Instead, other markets look to offer better trading value.

 

Over / Under 2.5

 

Laying ‘overs’ appears to be the market that offers most value, which is currently available at 1.61.


Over / Under 2.5 – Market Entry Point:

 

It is advised to take a lay position on overs at 1.6 – 1.65 before kick-off. A 2 point stake is advised for this trade.

 

Over / Under 2.5 – Market Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there have been zero goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

(b) If there has been 1 goal scored in the first-half, this will be showing as flat or a slight negative (depending on the goal time), leading to:

– Close the trade for around scratch

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

(c) If there’s more than 1 goal in the first-half, this trade should be closed to minimize losses

 

Hedge Trades

In the correct score market, the following should be backed at the start:

2-1 @ 9.8 for 0.2 points

1-2 @ 16 for 0.1 points

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED v CHELSEA

Date: 21ST November 2020  Time (GMT):12:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Newcastle have won 3 of their last 14 Premier League matches

– Newcastle have won 2 of their last 10 matches against Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea have won 7 of the last 10 matches against Newcastle (all competitions)

– Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 8 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these two teams played resulted in 1-0 win for Newcastle in January this year

– Prior to that, Chelsea won at home 1-0 in October 2019

– Due to the massive team changes since these matches, head-to-head comparisons are not so useful in this context

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Newcastle United

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Newcastle’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Newcastle’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.53. Although it would be tempting to lay them at this price, the fact is that Newcastle in their last three home games have scored against Everton, Manchester United and Burnley.  It is expected for them to score in this match also.

 

BTTS

 

Backing ‘Yes’ appears to be the market that offers most value, which is currently available at 1.88.

A 2 point stake is advised for this trade.


BTTS – Market Entry Point:

 

I expect this price to fall as kick-off time approaches, and so an acceptable price would be 1.8.  If the start price is below this, then it would be better to wait 10 minutes into the match and 1.88+ may be available again.

 

BTTS Market Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Newcastle score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take decent profit

– Left to run slightly further, on the expectation of Chelsea scoring

(b) If Chelsea score first in the first-half, then the position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a profit

– If Newcastle appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If both teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be:

– Left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half.

– If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP Match: COVENTRY CITY v BIRMINGHAM CITY

Date:20th November 2020   Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Coventry have lost 4 of their last 5 matches

– Coventry have seen both teams scoring (BTTS) in 4 of their 5 home matches

– Birmingham have seen BTTS in each of their last 4 matches

– Birmingham have lost their last 2 matches

– Birmingham have won once in their last 5 away matches (against Preston North End)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these two teams played was in the FA Cup in February this year, where a 1-1 draw occurred, with Birmingham eventually winning on penalties after extra-time

– The above match followed a 0-0 tie where Coventry were at ‘home’ (although it should be noted that both teams share the same match ground)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Coventry City

– Coventry’s latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Coventry’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Coventry’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Coventry’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Birmingham City

– Birmingham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Birmingham’s latest away match record reads W1 D3 L1

– In Birmingham’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Birmingham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

 

BTTS

With both teams showing a trend of both scoring and conceding goals, ‘Yes’ appears to be the market that offers most value, which is currently available at 1.88.

A 2 point stake is advised for this trade.


BTTS – Market Entry Point:

 

I expect this price to fall as kick-off time approaches, and so an acceptable price would be 1.74.  If the start price is below this, then it would be better to wait 10 minutes in to the game and 1.88+ may be available again.

 

BTTS Market Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Coventry score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take decent profit

– Left to run slightly further on the expectation of Birmingham scoring

(b) If Birmingham score first in the first-half, then the position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a profit

– If Coventry appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be:

– left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half.

– If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE   Match:POLAND v NETHERLANDS 

Date: 18th November 2020  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Poland are currently third in their group on 7 points, with Netherlands in second with just one point more. The outcome of this tie will decide the final standing, and even top spot is up for grabs should Italy lose their remaining game

– Poland have not lost their previous 4 home matches, recording 3 wins and a draw (0-0 against Italy)

– The Netherlands have not lost their previous 4 away matches, recording 3 draws and a win

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last meeting between these sides ended in a 1-0 home Netherlands win (UEFA Nations League in September this year)

– Prior to this, the last meeting was a friendly in 2016 where Netherlands defeated Poland 1-2

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Poland

– Poland’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– Poland’s last 4 home matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L0

– In Poland’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match, with 1 match resulting in over 2.5 goals

– Poland’s last match was a 0-2 away loss against Italy (UEFA Nations League)

 

Netherlands

– Netherlands last 5 matches in all competitions reads W1 D3 L1

– Netherlands last 4 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L0

– Netherlands last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– Netherlands last match was a 3-1 home win against Bosnia-Herzegovina (UEFA Nations League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Both teams should be looking for a win here in order to guarantee at least the second spot in the group. Netherlands go in to this match as favourites (2.02). However, with Poland’s strong home form and Netherlands drawing their last 3 away matches, two trades on separate markets are considered.

1. Match Odds

Netherlands have not won away in their last 3 matches. Combined with the losses of their main goal-keeper (Sillessen), main pair of central defenders (Van Dijk and De Ligt) and centre-halve (De Roon), they will be troubled by a counter-attacking Poland side with arguably the best forward in the world (Lewandowski).

Looking at this market, opposing a ‘Netherlands’ win would seem a decent position to take.

2. BTTS

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ would offer value at around 1.8.

 


Match Odds Entry Point:

It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Netherlands’ at around 2.02 – 2.08 at the start for 1 point. The lower the price taken at, the improved value gained.

 

Match Odds Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Poland score first, then the position can be:

– Closed for a decent profit

– Left to run further, with the expectation that Netherlands will not go on to win

(b) If Netherlands score first, then the position can be:

– Closed immediately to take a loss

– Left open with the expectation that Poland will get at least an equalizer

 

BTTS Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.76 – 1.84 at the start for 1 point. The higher the entry price point, the more value gained. It may be beneficial to wait for the match to begin and take a higher position 10 minutes in. However, if an early goal is scored before placement, an entry opportunity will be missed.

 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Poland score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Netherlands scoring

 

(b) If Netherlands score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit

– If Poland appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

 

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half. If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

 

 

– The Switzerland v Ukraine match has now been called off due to coronavirus

– A new trade recommendation has been given on the Spain v Germany match

 

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE  Match: SPAIN v GERMANY

Date: 17th November 2020            Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Spain have conceded the first goal in six of their previous nine UEFA Nations League matches

– In Spain’s last 5 matches, there have been under 2.5 goals

– Spain need to win this match to win the group, whereas Germany only need one point to retain the top spot

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last two meetings between these sides ended in a 1-1 draw (UEFA Nations League in September this year, and a friendly in 2018)

– Prior to this the previous 3 meetings all resulted in a 0-1 away win (Spain winning two)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Spain

– Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W1 D3 L1

– Spain’s last 4 home matches in all competitions reads W4 D0 L0

– In Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 2 matches, with all matches resulting in under 2.5 goals

– Spain’s last match was a 1-1 away draw against Switzerland (UEFA Nations League)

 

Germany

– Germany’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D2 L0

– Germany’s last 4 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L0

– Germany’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 4 matches

– Germany’s last match was a 3-1 home win against Ukraine (UEFA Nations League)

Trading Markets Considered

Spain go in to this match as favourites (2.46). However, with Spain managing just a single goal in their last home game against Switzerland, and with Germany expected to keep things tight to grind out the point they need, other markets are considered.

 


Goals Over / Under 2.5

Looking at this market, laying ‘Overs’ would offer value at around 1.73.

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Overs’ at 1.73 at the start for 1 point.

 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there have been zero goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

(b) If there has been 1 goal scored in the first-half, this will be showing as flat or a slight negative (depending on the goal time), leading to:

– Close the trade for around scratch

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

(c) If there’s more than 1 goal in the first-half, this trade should be closed to minimize losses and look for the hedge trades below to recover this

 

Hedge Trades

In the correct score market, the following should be backed at the start:

2-1 @ 10.5 for 0.1 point

1-2 @ 12.5 for 0.1 point

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLAND LEAGUE 1

Match: PLYMOUTH v PORTSMOUTH

Date: 16th November 2020 Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Plymouth are unbeaten in their last 7 home matches

– Plymouth have not beaten Portsmouth in their last 6 meetings

– These two sides have drawn in 4 of their last 6 previous meetings

– Portsmouth are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 away matches

– Portsmouth have not drawn their last 3 away matches at Plymouth

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last meeting between these sides was in February, 2020, where a 1-1 occurred

– Prior to this in 2018 Portsmouth won 3-0 and a 0-0 result was in 2018

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Plymouth

– Plymouth’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W4 D1 L0

– Plymouth’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W5 D0 L0

– In Plymouth’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 4 matches

– Plymouth’s last match was a 3-1 home win against Newport County (EFL Trophy)

 

Portsmouth

– Portsmouth’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D0 L2

– Portsmouth’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W5 D0 L0

– Portsmouth’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– Portsmouth’s last match was a 0-1 away loss against West Ham United (EFL Trophy)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Portsmouth go in to this match as favourites (2.14). However, they look evenly matched and both have goals in them, so looking at Both Teams To Score looks a better trade to take.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ would be the stand-out market at around 1.75.

 


Entry Point: With both teams having high percentages for scoring in the first 15 minutes, it is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.75 at the start for 2 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

1. If Portsmouth score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately

(b) If Plymouth look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

2. If Plymouth score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall substantially and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Portsmouth scoring

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased by 0.5 point at a bigger price.

 

4. If neither teams have scored by 70 minutes and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize losses.

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: BELGIUM v ENGLAND

Date:15th November 2020Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Belgium have scored in their last 23 matches in a row

– Belgium have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 matches

– England have won 7 of their last 9 matches

– England have won 3 of their last 7 away matches

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The meeting between the less than a month ago ended in a 2-1 England

– Prior to this in 2018 in World Cup games, Belgium won both meetings 2-0 and 0-1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Belgium

– Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– Belgium’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W4 D1 L0

– In Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in all matches

– Belgium’s last match was a 2-1 home win against Switzerland (friendly)

 

 

England

– England’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– England’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– England’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match

– England’s last match was a 3-0 home win against Ireland (friendly)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Belgium go in to this match as favourites (2.38). However, with a score-draw quite probable, the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) should be considered.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.82.

 


Entry Point: With Belgium scoring 30% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, it is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.82 at the start for 1 point.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

1. If Belgium score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately

(b) If England look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

2. If England score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall substantially and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Belgium scoring

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased by 0.5 point at a bigger price.

4. If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize losses.

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: PORTUGAL v FRANCE

Date: 14th November 2020

Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Portugal have won their last 7 competitive home matches

– Portugal have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches including friendlies

– France have lost 1 of their last 13 matches

– France have won 5 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Nations League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – In their last meeting just over a month ago, the clash ended in a 0-0 draw

– Prior to this, the last time these sides met was in 2016 (Euros), where Portugal won 1-0

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Portugal

– Portugal’s last 5 matches reads W1 D2 L2

– Portugal’s last 4 home matches reads W3 D1 L0

– Portugal’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring 0 times (including 0-0 results with both France and Spain)

– Portugal’s last match was a 7-0 home win against Andorra (friendly)

 

France

– France’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– France’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W5 D0 L0

– In France’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– In the last 5 away matches, France have scored at least 1 goal in all matches

– France’s last match was a 0-2 home loss against Finland

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Portugal go in to this match as favourites. Ronaldo should be starting for Portugal, however Mbappe (France’s key striker) remains doubtful for France with a hamstring injury.

 


Match Odds

Looking at this market, backing ‘Portugal’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at 2.36 (with the price coming down from a high of 2.96).

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘Portugal’ at around 2.36 at the start for 1 pt.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Portugal score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade should be:

– Closed to take the profit

(b) If France score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade for a loss

– If Portugal appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will likely show a small negative (depending on the chances being created). However, with Portugal scoring 67% of their goals in the second-half, it should be left open.

 

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: SWITZERLAND v SPAIN

Date: 14th November 2020 Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

  • Switzerland have conceded in their last 7 matches
  • Switzerland have won 0 of their last 5 matches
  • Switzerland have seen under 2.5 in 2 of their last 3 matches (UEFA Nations League)
  • Spain have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)
  • Spain have drawn 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – The last time these sides met less than a month ago, Spain won 1-0

– Prior to that was in 2018 in a friendly, which ended in a 1-1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Switzerland

– Switzerland’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D2 L3

– Switzerland’s last 3 home matches in all competitions reads W1 D1 L1

– 4 of Switzerland’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– Switzerland’s last match was a 2-1 away loss against Belgium

 

Spain

– Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W2 D2 L1

– Spain’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W0 D4 L1

– In Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match

– In the last 5 away matches, Spain have conceded a goal 4 times and scored at least 1 goal in 3 matches

– Spain’s last match was a 1-1 away draw against Netherlands in a friendly

 

Trading Markets Considered

Spain go in to this match as favourites, but have failed to win in their last 5 away matches. All of these matches also resulted in under 2.5 goals.


Over / Under 2.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘unders’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.92.


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.92 at the start for 1 pt.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there have been zero goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

(b) If there has been 1 goal scored in the first-half, this will be showing as flat or a slight negative (depending on the goal time), leading to:

– Close the trade for around scratch

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

(c) If there’s more than 1 goal in the first-half, this trade should be closed to minimize losses

Hedge Trades

In the correct score market, the following should be backed at the start:

2-1 @ 17 for 0.1 point

1-2 @ 10 for 0.25 point

______________________________________________________________

 

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO Match: BOLTON v SALFORD CITY
Date: 13th November 2020 Time (GMT): 19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Bolton have drawn 4 of their last 7 matches (League Two)

– Bolton’s Nathan Delfouneso has scored 4 goals in his last 4 home matches (all competitions)

– Salford have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – These teams have not played each other previously

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Bolton

– Bolton’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W1 D2 L2

– Bolton’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W1 D2 L2

– 3 of Bolton’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– Bolton’s last match was a 2-3 home loss against Crewe Alexandra (FA Cup)

 

 

Salford

– Salford’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D3 L2

– Salford’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D0 L2

– In Salford’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– 3 of Salford’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– In the last 5 away matches, Salford have scored at least 1 goal in 4 matches

– Salford’s last match was a 1-2 away win against Rochdale in the EFL Trophy

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Salford go in to this match as favourites. However, Salford have conceded in 3 of their last away fixtures. With certain key players returning for Bolton, their record of scoring at home looks to continue.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.9.

 


Entry Point: Both teams having fairly high percentages for goals scored in the first 15 minutes of a match (22.2% and 18.8% respectively). It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.9 at the start for 1 pt.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Bolton score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Salford scoring

(b) If Salford score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit

– If Bolton appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half. If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

 

 

Pro Trader – Historical Trades

This page contains all the previously advised daily trades from Pro Trader.

Who Is Pro Trader?

ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi.  In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.

 


 


Date:15th November 2020Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Belgium have scored in their last 23 matches in a row

– Belgium have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 matches

– England have won 7 of their last 9 matches

– England have won 3 of their last 7 away matches

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The meeting between the less than a month ago ended in a 2-1 England

– Prior to this in 2018 in World Cup games, Belgium won both meetings 2-0 and 0-1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Belgium

– Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– Belgium’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W4 D1 L0

– In Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in all matches

– Belgium’s last match was a 2-1 home win against Switzerland (friendly)

 

 

England

– England’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– England’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– England’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match

– England’s last match was a 3-0 home win against Ireland (friendly)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Belgium go in to this match as favourites (2.38). However, with a score-draw quite probable, the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) should be considered.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.82.

 


Entry Point: With Belgium scoring 30% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, it is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.82 at the start for 1 point.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

1. If Belgium score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately

(b) If England look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

2. If England score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall substantially and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Belgium scoring

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased by 0.5 point at a bigger price.

4. If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize losses.

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: PORTUGAL v FRANCE

Date: 14th November 2020

Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Portugal have won their last 7 competitive home matches

– Portugal have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches including friendlies

– France have lost 1 of their last 13 matches

– France have won 5 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Nations League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – In their last meeting just over a month ago, the clash ended in a 0-0 draw

– Prior to this, the last time these sides met was in 2016 (Euros), where Portugal won 1-0

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Portugal

– Portugal’s last 5 matches reads W1 D2 L2

– Portugal’s last 4 home matches reads W3 D1 L0

– Portugal’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring 0 times (including 0-0 results with both France and Spain)

– Portugal’s last match was a 7-0 home win against Andorra (friendly)

 

France

– France’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– France’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W5 D0 L0

– In France’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– In the last 5 away matches, France have scored at least 1 goal in all matches

– France’s last match was a 0-2 home loss against Finland

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Portugal go in to this match as favourites. Ronaldo should be starting for Portugal, however Mbappe (France’s key striker) remains doubtful for France with a hamstring injury.

 


Match Odds

Looking at this market, backing ‘Portugal’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at 2.36 (with the price coming down from a high of 2.96).

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘Portugal’ at around 2.36 at the start for 1 pt.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Portugal score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade should be:

– Closed to take the profit

(b) If France score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade for a loss

– If Portugal appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will likely show a small negative (depending on the chances being created). However, with Portugal scoring 67% of their goals in the second-half, it should be left open.

 

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: SWITZERLAND v SPAIN

Date: 14th November 2020 Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

  • Switzerland have conceded in their last 7 matches
  • Switzerland have won 0 of their last 5 matches
  • Switzerland have seen under 2.5 in 2 of their last 3 matches (UEFA Nations League)
  • Spain have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)
  • Spain have drawn 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – The last time these sides met less than a month ago, Spain won 1-0

– Prior to that was in 2018 in a friendly, which ended in a 1-1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Switzerland

– Switzerland’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D2 L3

– Switzerland’s last 3 home matches in all competitions reads W1 D1 L1

– 4 of Switzerland’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– Switzerland’s last match was a 2-1 away loss against Belgium

 

Spain

– Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W2 D2 L1

– Spain’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W0 D4 L1

– In Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match

– In the last 5 away matches, Spain have conceded a goal 4 times and scored at least 1 goal in 3 matches

– Spain’s last match was a 1-1 away draw against Netherlands in a friendly

 

Trading Markets Considered

Spain go in to this match as favourites, but have failed to win in their last 5 away matches. All of these matches also resulted in under 2.5 goals.


Over / Under 2.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘unders’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.92.


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.92 at the start for 1 pt.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there have been zero goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

(b) If there has been 1 goal scored in the first-half, this will be showing as flat or a slight negative (depending on the goal time), leading to:

– Close the trade for around scratch

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

(c) If there’s more than 1 goal in the first-half, this trade should be closed to minimize losses

Hedge Trades

In the correct score market, the following should be backed at the start:

2-1 @ 17 for 0.1 point

1-2 @ 10 for 0.25 point

______________________________________________________________

 

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO Match: BOLTON v SALFORD CITY
Date: 13th November 2020 Time (GMT): 19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Bolton have drawn 4 of their last 7 matches (League Two)

– Bolton’s Nathan Delfouneso has scored 4 goals in his last 4 home matches (all competitions)

– Salford have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – These teams have not played each other previously

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Bolton

– Bolton’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W1 D2 L2

– Bolton’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W1 D2 L2

– 3 of Bolton’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– Bolton’s last match was a 2-3 home loss against Crewe Alexandra (FA Cup)

 

 

Salford

– Salford’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D3 L2

– Salford’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D0 L2

– In Salford’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– 3 of Salford’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– In the last 5 away matches, Salford have scored at least 1 goal in 4 matches

– Salford’s last match was a 1-2 away win against Rochdale in the EFL Trophy

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Salford go in to this match as favourites. However, Salford have conceded in 3 of their last away fixtures. With certain key players returning for Bolton, their record of scoring at home looks to continue.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.9.

 


Entry Point: Both teams having fairly high percentages for goals scored in the first 15 minutes of a match (22.2% and 18.8% respectively). It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.9 at the start for 1 pt.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Bolton score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Salford scoring

(b) If Salford score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit

– If Bolton appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half. If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

 

 

Pro Trader – Historical Trades

This page contains all the previously advised daily trades from Pro Trader.

Who Is Pro Trader?

ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi.  In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.

 


 


Date:15th November 2020Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Belgium have scored in their last 23 matches in a row

– Belgium have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 matches

– England have won 7 of their last 9 matches

– England have won 3 of their last 7 away matches

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The meeting between the less than a month ago ended in a 2-1 England

– Prior to this in 2018 in World Cup games, Belgium won both meetings 2-0 and 0-1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Belgium

– Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– Belgium’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W4 D1 L0

– In Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in all matches

– Belgium’s last match was a 2-1 home win against Switzerland (friendly)

 

 

England

– England’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– England’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– England’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match

– England’s last match was a 3-0 home win against Ireland (friendly)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Belgium go in to this match as favourites (2.38). However, with a score-draw quite probable, the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) should be considered.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.82.

 


Entry Point: With Belgium scoring 30% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, it is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.82 at the start for 1 point.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

1. If Belgium score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately

(b) If England look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

2. If England score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall substantially and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Belgium scoring

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased by 0.5 point at a bigger price.

4. If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize losses.

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: PORTUGAL v FRANCE

Date: 14th November 2020

Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Portugal have won their last 7 competitive home matches

– Portugal have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches including friendlies

– France have lost 1 of their last 13 matches

– France have won 5 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Nations League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – In their last meeting just over a month ago, the clash ended in a 0-0 draw

– Prior to this, the last time these sides met was in 2016 (Euros), where Portugal won 1-0

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Portugal

– Portugal’s last 5 matches reads W1 D2 L2

– Portugal’s last 4 home matches reads W3 D1 L0

– Portugal’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring 0 times (including 0-0 results with both France and Spain)

– Portugal’s last match was a 7-0 home win against Andorra (friendly)

 

France

– France’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– France’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W5 D0 L0

– In France’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– In the last 5 away matches, France have scored at least 1 goal in all matches

– France’s last match was a 0-2 home loss against Finland

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Portugal go in to this match as favourites. Ronaldo should be starting for Portugal, however Mbappe (France’s key striker) remains doubtful for France with a hamstring injury.

 


Match Odds

Looking at this market, backing ‘Portugal’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at 2.36 (with the price coming down from a high of 2.96).

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘Portugal’ at around 2.36 at the start for 1 pt.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Portugal score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade should be:

– Closed to take the profit

(b) If France score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade for a loss

– If Portugal appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will likely show a small negative (depending on the chances being created). However, with Portugal scoring 67% of their goals in the second-half, it should be left open.

 

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: SWITZERLAND v SPAIN

Date: 14th November 2020 Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

  • Switzerland have conceded in their last 7 matches
  • Switzerland have won 0 of their last 5 matches
  • Switzerland have seen under 2.5 in 2 of their last 3 matches (UEFA Nations League)
  • Spain have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)
  • Spain have drawn 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – The last time these sides met less than a month ago, Spain won 1-0

– Prior to that was in 2018 in a friendly, which ended in a 1-1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Switzerland

– Switzerland’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D2 L3

– Switzerland’s last 3 home matches in all competitions reads W1 D1 L1

– 4 of Switzerland’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– Switzerland’s last match was a 2-1 away loss against Belgium

 

Spain

– Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W2 D2 L1

– Spain’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W0 D4 L1

– In Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match

– In the last 5 away matches, Spain have conceded a goal 4 times and scored at least 1 goal in 3 matches

– Spain’s last match was a 1-1 away draw against Netherlands in a friendly

 

Trading Markets Considered

Spain go in to this match as favourites, but have failed to win in their last 5 away matches. All of these matches also resulted in under 2.5 goals.


Over / Under 2.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘unders’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.92.


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.92 at the start for 1 pt.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there have been zero goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

(b) If there has been 1 goal scored in the first-half, this will be showing as flat or a slight negative (depending on the goal time), leading to:

– Close the trade for around scratch

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

(c) If there’s more than 1 goal in the first-half, this trade should be closed to minimize losses

Hedge Trades

In the correct score market, the following should be backed at the start:

2-1 @ 17 for 0.1 point

1-2 @ 10 for 0.25 point

______________________________________________________________

 

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO Match: BOLTON v SALFORD CITY
Date: 13th November 2020 Time (GMT): 19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Bolton have drawn 4 of their last 7 matches (League Two)

– Bolton’s Nathan Delfouneso has scored 4 goals in his last 4 home matches (all competitions)

– Salford have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – These teams have not played each other previously

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Bolton

– Bolton’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W1 D2 L2

– Bolton’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W1 D2 L2

– 3 of Bolton’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– Bolton’s last match was a 2-3 home loss against Crewe Alexandra (FA Cup)

 

 

Salford

– Salford’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D3 L2

– Salford’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D0 L2

– In Salford’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– 3 of Salford’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– In the last 5 away matches, Salford have scored at least 1 goal in 4 matches

– Salford’s last match was a 1-2 away win against Rochdale in the EFL Trophy

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Salford go in to this match as favourites. However, Salford have conceded in 3 of their last away fixtures. With certain key players returning for Bolton, their record of scoring at home looks to continue.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.9.

 


Entry Point: Both teams having fairly high percentages for goals scored in the first 15 minutes of a match (22.2% and 18.8% respectively). It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.9 at the start for 1 pt.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Bolton score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Salford scoring

(b) If Salford score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit

– If Bolton appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half. If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

 

 

Pro Trader – Daily Trades

Members Only Content – Access Pro Trader below.

Who Is Pro Trader?

ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi.  In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.

Pro Trader – Daily Trades

Quick Summary:

Pro Trader (PT) will post on this page each day before 12:00pm the match he will be looking to trade that day, including his initial analysis and expected trades.

He will provide a further update between 1 and 2 hours before kick-off to take into account any team news or major market changes as appropriate.

We do advise checking  here each day to know when the trade will be and you can then either trade as advised or check back here, if you are able to, just before kick-off to get any updates.

We will keep all historical trades and advice on this page.

Staking – Points will be given for a 50 point starting bank.


Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY Match: BELGUIM v SWITZERLAND
Date: 11th November 2020 Time (GMT): 19:45

Key Match Stats:

 – In 4 out of 5 of Belgium’s previous matches, both teams have scored

– In 4 out of 5 of Switzerland’s previous matches, both teams have scored

– Belgium have scored 11 goals and conceded 5 in their last 5 matches

– Switzerland have scored 7 goals and conceded 9 in the last 5 matches

– Belgium have scored two or more goals in their previous four fixtures against Switzerland

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – The last 5 meetings between the sides have seem Belgium win 3, Switzerland 1 and 2 draws

– 4 of these have resulted in goals over 2.5

– 4 of these have also seen both teams scoring

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Belgium

– Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– Belgium’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W4 D1 L0

– In Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 4 matches

– Belgium’s last match was a 1-2 away win against Iceland

 

 

SWITZERLAND

– Switzerland’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D1 L4

– Switzerland’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W0 D1 L4

– Switzerland’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 4 matches

– Switzerland’s last match was a 3-3 away draw against Germany

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

A Belgium win look likely here, although not guaranteed since their starting line-up may be compromised by the lack of E. Hazard and Lukaku. Also, being a friendly this could lead to experimental line-ups, with inexperience and looking to impress. This could lead to both goals and mistakes.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.8. However, 10 minutes into the game could offer 1.9.

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.9-2.0 shortly after the start. Due to this being an International friendly, a more conservative stake of 1 point is recommended.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

1. If Belgium score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately

(b) If Switzerland look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

2. If Switzerland score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall substantially and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Belgium scoring

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased by 0.5 point at a bigger price.

 

4. If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed.

 

5. If 0-0 at half-time, it would be considered a good trade to now back Belgium at around 2.5 (1 point).