Pro Trader – Daily Trades

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Who Is Pro Trader?

ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter and enjoys travelling (when permitted).  In his spare time, he is writing a series of books, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.

Pro Trader – Daily Trades

Quick Summary:

Pro Trader (PT) will post on this page each day around 12:00pm the match he will be looking to trade that day, including his initial analysis and expected trades.

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Pro Trader may provide a further update 1 hour before kick-off to take into account any team news or major market changes as appropriate.

We have moved all past and historical trades to their own page, which you can access here.

Staking – Points will be given for a 50 point starting bank.

 

 


 

Pre-Match Analysis

League: PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL) Match: WEST HAM UNITED v TOTTENHAM
Date: 24th OCTOBER 2021 Time (GMT): 14:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in February this year, where West Ham won 2-1 (PRL)

– West Ham have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.38, Tottenham at 3.25, with the draw at 3.6.

West Ham currently sit 7th in the league with 14 points, with Tottenham with just 1 point more in 5th.

In terms of xG, West Ham are ranked 4th in the league, with 1.77 expected goals per game. Tottenham are 16th with just 1.06.  When looking at the xGA numbers, West Ham have an impressive 1.23, which is 5th best in the league, with Tottenham recording 1.57.

Tottenham have recently played 3 of their London rivals (Arsenal, Chelsea, Crystal Palace) and lost all of them, whilst conceding 3 goals in each match.

Both sides played in UEFA European competitions mid-week, with West Ham beating Genk 3-0 and Tottenham losing to Vitesse 1-0. Both sides made changes to their usual starting 11, with Tottenham fielding more changes with this match in mind.

This match will be determined by the midfield, and West Ham have a better defensive duo in Rice and Soucek. Overall, the team also has more cohesion than Tottenham with their main striker and captain seeking to move elsewhere.

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘West Ham’ at a decent price of 2.38.

 

Match Odds – West Ham

 

Backing ‘West Ham’ offers decent value for this match at 2.38
 

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at around 2.3+ before the start for 3 points.

 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Tottenham score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

(bii) If  Tottenham score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

 

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back with two goals

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after



 

 


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