Pro Trader – Historical Trades

This page contains all the previously advised daily trades from Pro Trader.

Who Is Pro Trader?

ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter and enjoys travelling (when permitted).  In his spare time, he is writing a series of books, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, and of course, trading football markets.

 


 

>>> You can access the full historical trading performance summary here


Snap-shot of the trading week (and year… so far)

 

 

Historical Trades

 

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: ARSENAL v VILLARREAL

Date: 6th  May 2021  Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Arsenal have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal are undefeated in 14 of their last 16 matches (Europa League)

– Villarreal have allowed just 1.09 xGA (expected goals against) per match (La Liga)

– Villarreal are undefeated in their last 13 matches (Europa League)

– Villarreal have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away matches (Europa League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in the first leg of this tie in late April this year, where Villarreal won 2-1 (UEL)

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W0 D2 L3

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.12 home goals, whilst conceding 1.18 (Premier League)

 

Villarreal (all competitions)

– Villarreal’s  latest match record reads W2 D0 L1

– Villarreal’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Villarreal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Villarreal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Villarreal have scored an average of 1.65 away goals, whilst conceding 1.12 (La Liga)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.91, Villarreal at 4.4, with the draw at 3.95.

This second-leg of the tie will no doubt be a close, cagey match. Arsenal have also struggled to create high-quality chances on the domestic front, averaging just 1.41 xG per match. Villarreal also boasts one of the best defensive records in La Liga, allowing only 1.09 xG per match, so it is likely Villarreal will try to nullify Arsenal defensively in this encounter.

Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang looks set to return after being out with Malaria, although he claims to be only 90% fit following the disease.

Therefore under 2.5 goals looks likely and high-value at a decent price of 2.16.

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers high value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.16. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.07.

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.12+ for 3 points before the start.

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA V REAL MADRID

Date: 5th  May 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

 

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 20 of their last 23 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid are undefeated in their last 19 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in the first leg of this tie in April this year, where a 1-1 draw played out (UCL)

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred zero times

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.2 home goals, whilst conceding 0.4 (UCL )

 

Real Madrid (all competitions)

– Real Madrid’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L0

– Real Madrid’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Real Madrid’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Real Madrid’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Real Madrid have scored an average of 1 away goals, whilst conceding 0.8 (UCL)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.26, Real Madrid at 3.6, with the draw at 3.5.

This second-leg of the tie will no doubt be a close, cagey match. Further to that, the fact that both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in their recent games, makes this the main play here, at a decent price of 1.88.

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers high value for this match from a trading perspective at 188. Predictology and Infogol are also highlighting this selection a high-value.

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.84+ for 3 points before the start.

 

 

 

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER CITY V PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN (PSG)

Date: 4th  May 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Manchester City have won 32 of their last 35 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City are undefeated in 20 of their last 21 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Manchester City have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– PSG have drawn 2 of their last 4 matches against Man City (all competitions)

– PSG are undefeated in 6 of their last 8 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– PSG have seen under 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4 matches (UEFA Champions League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in the first leg of this tie in April this year, where Manchester City won 1-2 (UCL)

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Manchester City’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Manchester City have scored an average of 2.6 home goals, whilst conceding 0.4 (UCL )

 

PSG (all competitions)

– PSG’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– PSG’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In PSG’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In PSG’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times

– PSG have scored an average of 2.6 away goals, whilst conceding 1.2 (UCL)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.68, PSG at 5.3, with the draw at 4.5.

If you watched the first match between these sides, you will know that PSG bossed the first-half, whilt Manchester City scored two very, very lucky goals. Manchester City will now sit on this advantage, and being the best defensive team in the Premier league (possibly Europe), they will look to shut-out PSG more than they will look at scoring.

 

Therefore, under 2.5 goals looks high-value at 2.6.

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers high value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.6.

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.5+ for 3 points before the start.

 

 

 

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BURNLEY V WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 3rd  May 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Burnley have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Burnley are winless in 8 of their last 10 matches (Premier League)

– Burnley have drawn 5 of their last 7 home matches (Premier League)

– Burnley have drawn 1-1 in 3 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham are winless in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January this year, where West Ham United won 1-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to that, the last 4 meetings have seen Burnley win 3, and West Ham 1 (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Burnley (all competitions)

– Burnley’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Burnley’s latest home match record reads W0 D4 L1

– In Burnley’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Burnley’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times

– Burnley have scored an average of 0.81 home goals, whilst conceding 1.12 (Premier League)

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.5 away goals, whilst conceding 1.38 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.42, Burnley at 3.2, with the draw at 3.6.

Burnley are safe in the league, and have nothing to play for here, whereas West Ham are still hopeful of a European place. With the emphasis on motivational factors, West Ham should be able to see off 16th place Burnley.

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘West Ham’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.42.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at 2.4+ for 3 points.

 

 

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Burnley score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

 

 

(bii) If  Burnley score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back

 

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

Date: 2nd  May 2021

Manchester United v Liverpool – Match Post-Poned 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA V FULHAM

Date: 1st  May 2021Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Chelsea have won 14 of their last 21 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have won their last 6 matches against Fulham (Premier League).

– Fulham have failed to score in their last 3 away matches against Chelsea (Premier League)

– Fulham have lost 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Fulham have failed to score in 4 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January this year, where Chelsea won 1-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to that, the last 4 meetings have seen Chelsea win all 4 (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 0 times

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.69 home goals, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

Fulham (all competitions)

– Fulham’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– Fulham’s latest away match record reads W1 D3 L1

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Fulham have scored an average of 1 away goals, whilst conceding 1.19 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.55, Fulham at 7.8, with the draw at 4.3.

Fulham aren’t great at scoring goals, and a full-strength Chelsea team is not expected due to the second-leg CL semi-final against Real Madrid on Wednesday. Chelsea are also at present more interested in not conceding goals than scoring, so it is anticipated that goals will not be forth-coming. Chelsea have also seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 6 home matches.

Therefore, the best trade looks to be backing under 2.5 goals at a decent price of 1.85.

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at around 1.85.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.8+ for 3.5 points.

 

 

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: SOUTHAMPTON V LEICESTER CITY

Date: 30th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– The last 2 matches played between these sides this year, Leicester have won to nil (all competitions)

– Southampton have lost 12 of their last 15 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Southampton have lost 3 of their last 4 matches against Leicester (all competitions)

– Leicester have won their last 3 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have won 6 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was just 12 days ago, where Leicester won 1-0 (FA Cup Semi-Final)

– Prior to that, the last 4 meetings have seen Southampton win 2 and Leicester win 2

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Southampton (all competitions)

– Southampton’s  latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Southampton’s  latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Southampton’s  last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Southampton’s  last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.4 home goals, whilst conceding 1.3 (Premier League)

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Leicester’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Leicester have scored an average of 1.88 away goals, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leicester go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.02, Southampton at 3.9, with the draw at 3.95.

Leicester have scored the 3rd highest number of goals in the Premier League so far (60). The recent high scoring consistent exploits of Iheanacho will just add to this tally, now that he is being played alongside Jamie Vardy. For Southampton, they will be without their top goal-scorer (Danny Ings), since he is out injured (presumably for the rest of the season).

With Leicester looking to secure a place in the top 4, this is a must win match with Chelsea, West Ham and Liverpool close behind.

Therefore with both teams to score at 1.8, over 2.5 goals at 1.93, the standout trade would be the straight back of a Leicester win at a very decent 2.02.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Leicester’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at around 2.02.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Leicester’ at 2+ for 3.5 points.

 

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Leicester score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Leicester maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Southampton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Leicester equalizing and coming back

 

 

(bii) If  Southampton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Leicester coming back

 

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Leicester scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

 

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: VILLARREAL V ARSENAL

Date: 29th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Villarreal have won 8 of their last 11 matches (all competitions)

– Villarreal have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Villarreal have seen both teams to score in all of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal haven’t lost in their last 5 away matches, whilst scoring 3 or more goals in 4 of them (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in 2009, where Arsenal won 3-0 (UEFA Champions League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Villarreal (all competitions)

– Villarreal’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Villarreal’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Villarreal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 5 times

– In Villarreal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times

– Villarreal have scored an average of 3 home goals, whilst conceding 0.83 (UEFA Europa League)

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Arsenal’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Arsenal have scored an average of 0.83 away goals, whilst conceding 0.83 (UEFA Europa League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Villarreal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.68, Arsenal at 2.96, with the draw at 3.4.

Villarreal are currently 20th in the Euro Club Index rating, with Arsenal 16th.  This match has the makings of a tactical possession based battle, and so may not contain as many goals as would be expected. This is already showing in the market consensus, with 1-1 being the most favoured score line at 7.

However, with Villarreal both scoring and conceding goals in all of their last 5 matches, which is something that Arsenal are also prone to do, both teams to score looks be a decent value trade.

It’s also interesting to note, that Villarreal score the majority of their goals in the first-half (21 min average first goal in Europa), whilst Arsenal score the majority of theirs in the second-half.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at around 1.87. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as value at 1.75.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.85+ before (or shortly after the start) for 3.5 points.

 

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Villarreal score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or
(ii) If Arsenal look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

(b) If Arsenal score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

 

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Villarreal scoring in the second-half, or
(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

 

(i) the position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances, close the trade to minimize loss

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN (PSG) V MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 28th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– PSG have lost 2 of their last 3 home matches (Ligue 1)

– PSG have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– PSG have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have won 30 of their last 33 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have scored 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City are undefeated in 19 of their last 20 matches (UEFA Champions League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in April 2016, where Manchester City won a 1-0 (UEFA Champions League)

– Being nearly 5 years ago, these historic numbers are not useful for analysis of this match

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

PSG (all competitions)

– PSG’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– PSG’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In PSG’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In PSG’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– PSG have scored an average of 2.24 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 0.76 (Ligue 1)

 

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just 3 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.56 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.14, whereas PSG are 3.5, with the draw 3.9.

The back price on Manchester City is very tempting, considering what it normally would be in a Premier League match. For PSG, there are doubts over the fitness of their top goal-scorer, Mbappe who has scored 25 goals in Ligue 1, and 8 so far in the Champions League. Considering this with the fact Manchester City have the current best defence in the Premier League (conceded the fewest goals), then for PSG to score will be a challenge.

Manchester City have recently had tight cagey games, including their 1-0 win over Tottenham in the EPL Cup Final at the weekend, and their 1-0 loss in the FA Cup Final with Chelsea.

With this first leg of the semi-final, it is expected that another similar scenario will materialize, and therefore under 2.5 goals is favoured for a high-value trade.

 

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Unders’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.24.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.24 before the start for 3 points.

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: REAL MADRID V CHELSEA

Date: 27th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Real Madrid haven’t lost in their last 17 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid haven’t conceded in their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid have drawn 0-0 in 3 of their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea are undefeated in their last 10 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 18 of their last 21 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have seen under 1.5 goals in their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have conceded 1 goal (total) in their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in July 2016, where Real Madird won a 3-2 (International Champions Cup)

– Being nearly 5 years ago, these historic numbers are not useful for analysis of this match

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Real Madrid (all competitions)

– Real Madrid’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L0

– Real Madrid’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Real Madrid’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Real Madrid’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Real Madrid have scored an average of 1.69 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 0.62 (La Liga)

 

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.41 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.88 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Real Madrid go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.44, whereas Chelsea are 3.5, with the draw 3.25.

 

This does have the makings of a defensive showdown, and it wouldn’t surprise if the first leg was a 1-0 result either way, or even a 0-0.

Real Madrid have conceded just one goal in their last 5 matches. But Chelsea have conceded the same in their last 6 away matches. Considering the draw price is lower than the Chelsea back price is an indicator as to how this match could play-out. Looking at the scorelines, 1-1 is most favoured at 7. Next is 1-0 Madrid at 7.8, followed by 0-0 at 8.4.

Therefore, a low-scoring and cagey match is anticipated by the markets due to previous team performances and the expectations on this match.

This points to the under 2.5 goals market – but the price is just 1.64, which isn’t good enough for a trade recommendation.

However, both teams to score (BTTS) – ‘No’ is more favourable at 1.9.

BTTS – NO

Backing ‘No’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 1.9. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as value at 1.85. However, a small hedge will be used on the score-line, as detailed below.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– BTTS: It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.9 before the start for 3 points.

– CORRECT SCORE: It is advised to take a back position on ‘1-1’ at 7  before the start for 0.5 points.

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Left to run further on the expectation of one or both teams not scoring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If Real Madrid score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Chelsea not scoring

 

(c) If Chelsea score first in the first or second-half, then:

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Real Madrid not scoring against Chelsea, or with the hedge trade covering the risk of a 1-1

(e) If Chelsea score first in the second-half, then:

– Leave open on the anticipation of Real Madrid not scoring, with the hedge trade more than covering the main trade

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LEICESTER CITY V CRYSTAL PALACE

Date: 26th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Leicester have won 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Leicester have scored the 3rd highest amount of goals so far in the Premier League this season (58)

– Crystal Palace have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 5 of their last 9 away matches (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace have conceded the 5th highest number of goals so far in the Premier League (52)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in December last year, where a 1-1 draw resulted (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Leicester City win 2, and Crystal Palace 2 (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester City’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Leicester City’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Leicester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Leicester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Leicester City have scored an average of 1.75 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.31 (Premier League)

 

 

Crystal Palace (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Crystal Palace’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.13 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.8 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leicester City go in to this match as favourites, priced at just 1.45, whereas Crystal Palace are 9.4, with the draw 4.8.

It’s difficult to see past a Leicester City win here, but the back price is too low to consider (for a trade recommendation). Also, Leicester’s home form is far worse than their away form, where they’ve won 8 and lost 7 at home, whilst recording 10 wins and just 2 losses away.

Crystal Palace can also be unpredictable, but it should be also noted that their top goal-scorer (Wilfried Zaha) has scored 5 goals against Leicester, his most against any single team.

Looking at other markets of interest, over 2.5 goals is currently 1.93, with both teams to score ‘Yes’ trading at 2.18.

Considering that Crystal Palace have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, the higher priced BTTS ‘Yes’ market is favoured.

 

 

Both Teams To Score

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.18. Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 2.16.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2.18 before the start (or shortly after) for 3 points.

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Leicester City score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:
(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or
(ii) If Crystal Palace look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

(b) If Crystal Palace score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Leicester City scoring in the second-half, or
(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open on the expectation of goals.

 

(d) If neither teams have scored by approx. 60 mins, and neither seem to be searching for a goal, with few shots taken, then the position should be closed to minimize loss.

 

League: EFL Cup Final

Match: MANCHESTER CITY V TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Date: 25th  April 2021  Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Manchester City have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have won 29 of their last 32 matches (all competitions)

– Man City have won 6 of their last 10 matches against Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenham have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Tottenham have lost 3 of their last 7 matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have scored 2 goals or more in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in February this year, where Manchester City won 3-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Manchester City win 1, Tottenham 2, with 1 draw (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Manchester City’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 2.18 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 0.88 (Premier League)

 

 

Tottenham Hotspur (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Tottenham’s latest away match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.65 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.18 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, priced at just 1.53, whereas Tottenham are 7, with the draw 4.8.

It’s difficult to argue against a Manchester City win here, looking to win this cup for the 8th time at Wembley in front of 8,000 fans.

Of course, they have next week’s first leg Champions League semi-final against Paris Saint-Germain, but they unlikely to field anything but a strong side here.

Tottenham have had their issues to deal with recently, including the removal of manager Jose Mourinho, replaced by young ex-player Ryan Mason. Spurs still possess plenty of attacking intent, especially if a front 3 of Bale, Son and Kane are involved (although there are doubts on Kane due to a recent ankle injury). However, I expect him to feature at some point in this final.

Looking at other markets of interest, over 2.5 goals is currently 1.81, with both teams to score ‘Yes’ trading at 1.96.

Considering that both teams have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches, the higher priced BTTS ‘Yes’ market is favoured.

 

 

Both Teams To Score

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 1.96.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.96 before the start (or shortly after) for 3 points.

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Manchester City score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:
(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or
(ii) If Tottenham look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

(b) If Tottenham score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Manchester City scoring in the second-half, or
(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open on the expectation of goals.

 

(d) If neither teams have scored by approx. 60 mins, and neither seem to be searching for a goal, with few shots taken, then the position should be closed to minimize loss.

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED V CHELSEA

Date: 24th  April 2021  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– West Ham are undefeated in 16 of their last 18 home matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have won 7 of their last 9 home matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score & over 4.5 goals in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have scored at least 2 goals in all of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea haven’t beaten West Ham in 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea are undefeated in their last 9 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have conceded just a single goal (total) in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have drawn 2 of their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in December last year, where Chelsea won 3-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen West Ham win 2, Chelsea 1, with 1 draw (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.81 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.25 (Premier League)

 

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.44 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.94 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, priced at just 1.72, whereas West Ham are 5.5, with the draw 4.

These two teams are sitting in 4th and 5th in the table, but on equal points (55). In terms of finding good value for a trade, we need to assess what is in front of us. On one-hand, we have a team that is free-flowing and has scored 8 goals in their last 3 matches, whilst also seeing over 4.5 goals in each.  On the other we have a team that has scored just 1 goal in their last 3, and seen under 2.5 goals in each.

Chelsea are likely to be more fatigued, as their 0-0 against 16th placed Brighton 4 days ago shows. 3 days before that they played a 1-0 win against Man City in the FA Cup semi-final. Chelsea also have the first-leg of their Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid on Tuesday, which surely will be a consideration in their approach to this match against West Ham.

West Ham’s last match was exactly a week ago, where they lost to Newcastle 3-2 (although they did this with 10 men for most of the match).

The value therefore, looks to be in backing West Ham at 5.5, but with a hedge on the draw for more safety.

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘West Ham’ offers high value for this match from a trading perspective at 5.5. However, a hedge trade will also be made on the draw, as detailed below. Predictology are also highlighting backing West Ham as high-value at 4.72.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at 5.4+ before the start for 2 points.

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Draw’ at 3.8+ before the start for 1 point.



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Chelsea score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

 

(bii) If Chelsea score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing to use the hedge trade

 

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly positive (due to the hedge), leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close both the trades soon after

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: ARSENAL V EVERTON

Date: 23rd  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Arsenal have failed to win in their last 4 home matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have drawn their last 2 home matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Everton have drawn their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Everton have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Everton are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in December last year, where Everton won 2-1 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Arsenal win 2, Everton 1, with 1 draw (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L1

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.19 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.19 (Premier League)

 

 

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Everton’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Everton have scored an average of 1.4 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.14, whereas Everton are 3.95, with the draw 3.55.

These two teams are sitting in 8th and 9th in the table.  A win for Arsenal would see these positions reversed.  Everton haven’t been scoring many goals of late (just 4 in their last 5 matches). But also they haven’t been conceding many either (just 2 in their last 4 away matches).

Arsenal have scored just 2 goals in their last 4 home matches.

This is likely to be a tight and cagey match, with both teams looking not to lose as their priority.

Therefore, this shouldn’t be a high-scoring match and under 2.5 goals looks a good value call at 1.9.

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 1.9.

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.86+ before the start for 3 points.



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 21st  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Aston Villa have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 home matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches against Man City (all competitions)

– Manchester City have scored 2+ goals in their last 6 matches against Aston Villa (all competitions)

– Manchester City have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in January this year, where Manchester City won 2-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Manchester City win all 4 (all competitions)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Aston Villa (all competitions)

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Aston Villa’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.64 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.36 (Premier League)

 

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.53 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.41, whereas Aston Villa are 9.6, with the draw 5.2.

It’s been a tumultuous week in the world of European football, with the rise (and now eventual fall) of the European Super League, which I’m sure you will know all about.

 

Liverpool played Sunday after the news broke, which they went on to draw with Leeds. Chelsea played yesterday, and also drew (0-0) with Brighton. The Chelsea players looked lethargic, or possibly distracted, or possibly embarrassed. Or perhaps all of these.

Even without Jack Grealish, I believe that Aston Villa could take something from this game, whether it be a 1-0, 0-0 or a 1-1 (potentially).

Aston Villa are 3rd in the clean-sheets league, just behind Man City and Chelsea. They are also 3rd in least goals conceded on 33, just behind Chelsea (31).

Manchester City were kept out against Chelsea at the weekend in the FA Cup semi-final. Arguably, Manchester City’s most creative player (Kevin De Bruyne) is also now out injured following that match.

Therefore, Under 2.5 goals looks a very favourable proposition for a trade recommendation at 2.24.

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.24.

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.2+ before the start for 3 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA V BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION

Date: 20th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Chelsea have won 5 of their last 7 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have kept 14 clean sheets in their last 19 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have not conceded in their last 6 home matches against Brighton (all competitions)

– Chelsea have seen both teams to score just once in their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Brighton have lost 3 of their last 4 away matches (all competitions)

– Brighton have failed to score in 2 of their last 4 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in September last year, where Chelsea won 1-3 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Chelsea win 2, and there has been 2 draws (all competitions)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.8 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.07 (Premier League)

Brighton (all competitions)

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Brighton’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Brighton have scored an average of 1.13 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.27 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.65, whereas Brighton are 6.9, with the draw 4.

Chelsea have conceded in just 1 of their last 5 home matches. Brighton although a decent playing team, have difficulty actually scoring. How they will do this against one of the most solid defences in the Premier League, or perhaps Europe, it’s not looking likely.

 

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is 1.81, whilst both teams to score ‘No’ is 1.8. Considering Chelsea recently played against Manchester City in the FA Cup, and kept a clean sheet against the league’s top scorers, it’s difficult to make a case for Brighton scoring here.

 

Therefore, BTTS ‘No’ is favoured for a trade recommendation.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) – ‘No’

 

Backing ‘No’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 1.8.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.76+ before the start for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Left to run further on the expectation of one or both teams not scoring in the second-half

(b) If Chelsea score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Brighton not scoring

(c) If Brighton score first in the first-half, then:

– Close the trade to minimize loss

 

(d) If Brighton score first in the second-half (before 70 mins), then:

– Close the trade to reduce the risk

 

(e) If Chelsea score first in the second-half, then:

– Leave open on the anticipation of Brighton not scoring

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LEEDS UNITED V LIVERPOOL

Date: 19th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Leeds have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have failed to score in 8 matches so far in the league (5 at home), with Liverpool also failing to score 8 times (just twice away)

– Liverpool have won 4 of their last 5 matches against Leeds (all competitions)

– Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score just once in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in September last year, where Liverpool won 4-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Liverpool win 3, and there has been 1 draw (all competitions)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Leeds United (all competitions)

– Leeds latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Leeds latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Leeds last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Leeds last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Leeds have scored an average of 1.4 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.2 (Premier League)

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Liverpool’s have scored an average of 1.93 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.20 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.71, whereas Leeds are 4.9, with the draw 4.6.

Liverpool are likely to approach this match with more caution then they did in the reverse fixture in September last year, which they won 4-3. A win here would see them move in to 4th position, and they’ll be very conscious of this since they were recently eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid, with the Anfield match ending 0-0. Liverpool were unable to score, and Real Madrid didn’t need to score to guarantee progression to the semi-finals.

 

To get back in to the CL qualification places, Liverpool do need to score, whilst also nullifying another Los Blancos team.

 

Whilst anticipating a Liverpool win here, the price is not compelling enough for a TOTD recommendation, being just over 1.7.

 

Looking at other markets of interest, BTTS – ‘No’ is 2.48, and under 2.5 goals is better still at 2.66.

However, with Liverpool conceding in just 1 of their last 5 away matches (against Real Madrid), the BTTS ‘No’ market holds strong appeal and is favoured. Further to this, Raphinha for Leeds looks doubtful, and he will be missed by the Leeds attack should he not start.

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) – ‘No’

Backing ‘No’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.48. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.34.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 2.42+ before the start for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Left to run further on the expectation of one or both teams not scoring in the second-half

(b) If Liverpool score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Leeds not scoring

(c) If Leeds score first in the first-half, then:

– Close the trade to minimize loss

 

(d) If Leeds score first in the second-half (before 70 mins), then:

– Close the trade to reduce the risk

 

(e) If Liverpool score first in the second-half, then:

– Leave open on the anticipation of Leeds not scoring

 

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: LEICESTER CITY V SOUTHAMPTON

Date: 18th  April 2021  Time (GMT): 18:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Leicester are currently 3rd in the Premier League, with Southampton sitting 14th

– Leicester have scored 3 goals in 3 of their 4 FA Cup ties this season (FA Cup)

– Leicester have scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have conceded 2 or more goals in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have lost 5 of their last 7 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in January this year, where Leicester won 2-0 (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Leicester’s latest home match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Leicester have scored an average of 1.67 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.4 (Premier League)

Southampton (all competitions)

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Southampton’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.12 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.25 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leicester go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.93, whereas Southampton are 4.5, with the draw 3.75.

Looking at other markets of interest, BTTS – ‘Yes’ is 1.83, and over 2.5 goals is better at 1.96. Realistically though, these prices come with caveats that also bring risk. Those being, will Southampton score against Leicester (in their last match they didn’t)? If not, will Leicester score 3 or more goals to make over 2.5 profitable? Possibly not.

Therefore, for this trade recommendation we are going for a straight back on Leicester at a decent price of 1.93. Leicester have a superior team, which in itself is evident in both teams league positions (3rd and 14th). It is also noted that Jamie Vardy has scored in all 3 of his last appearances at Wembley… so maybe this run is set to continue.

 

This recommendation is being sent out early, since it appears that the back price on Leicester is going to fall before kick-off, to around 1.86.

 

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Leicester’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 1.93.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Leicester’ at 1.9+ before the start for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Leicester score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Leicester maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Southampton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Leicester equalizing and coming back

 

 

(bii) If  Southampton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Leicester coming back

 

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Leicester scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED V WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 17th  April 2021  Time (GMT):12:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Newcastle are winless in 8 of their last 9 home matches (Premier League)

– Newcastle have seen BTTS in their last 7 home matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 7 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen over 4.5 goals in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have scored at least 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in September last year (first game of the season), where Newcastle won 0-2 (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Newcastle United (all competitions)

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Newcastle’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Newcastle have scored an average of 1.27 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.67 (Premier League)

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.47 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.27 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.2, whereas Newcastle are 3.75, with the draw 3.5.

Newcastle’s home form has improved of late, registering 4 wins and a draw. This is impressive, considering the wins include matches against Leicester, Leeds and Tottenham.

West Ham have equally been on a decent path that have taken them to 4th, with their only recent losses coming against the two Manchester clubs (sitting in 1st and 2nd in the league table).

 

My only hesitation in backing them outright, is that key players Declan Rice, Aaoron Creswell and Michel Antonio will be missing for this match. Newcastle also have a reduced defensive line, also due to injuries.

With depleted defences, this could potentially turn in to a goal fest.

Therefore, over 2.5 goals is favoured for this Saturday lunch-time fixture.

 

 

 

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Over’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 1.95.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over 2.5 goals’ at 1.94+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points. If you wait 10 mins, and there is no goal you could enter at 2.1+. The only risk to this strategy is that an early goal would make this trade not worth taking.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: EVERTON V TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Date: 16th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Everton haven’t won in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Everton haven’t won in 7 of their last 8 home matches (Premier League)

– Everton have seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have won 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have failed to win in 5 of their last 7 away matches (Premier League)

– Tottenham have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played each other was in the FA Cup in February this year, where a 5-4 Everton win played out

– Prior to that, the last 4 matches have seen Everton win 1, Tottenham win 1, and 2 draws (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Everton have scored an average of 1.33 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.53 (Premier League)

Tottenham Hotspur (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Tottenham’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.62 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.12 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.22, whereas Everton  are 3.6, with the draw also 3.6.

Neither teams looks appealing in terms of backing outright at the moment. They are also sitting in 7th and 8th in the Premier League table (on 49 and 48 points respectively), and when this scenario occurs, a draw often plays out, since neither side wants to slide further down the table. In fact all of the analysis elements show that this match will end in a draw.

The two teams recently played out a 5-4 in the FA Cup, but this is a red-herring and won’t be repeated in this instance. Instead, it is expected a tight, cagey game will occur with neither team wanting to concede or lose.

Instead of a high-scoring match, it is likely to be 0-0 or 1-1. In fact already on the exchanges, the most likely result is seen as 1-1 at 7.6, with the second favourite score line seen as 0-1 (9.2). Predictology are also highlighting 1-1 as the most likely score.

Therefore, under 2.5 goals is favoured for this Friday night feature.

 

 

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.06.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at 2+ before the start for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: SLAVIA PRAGUE V ARSENAL

Date: 15th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Slavia Prague are ranked #32 in the Euro Club Index

– Slavia Prague have won 16 of their last 23 matches (all competitions)

– Slavia Prague are undefeated in 9 of their last 10 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Slavia Prague have scored in all of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal are ranked #16 in the Euro Club Index

– Arsenal have scored 3 goals (per game) in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 15 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– In the previous leg of this Europa tie, Slavia Prague scored late to secure a 1-1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Slavia Prague (all competitions)

– Slavia Prague’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Slavia Prague’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Slavia Prague’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Slavia Prague’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Slavia Prague have scored an average of 1.6 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 0.6 (UEFA Europa League)

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Arsenal’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Arsenal have scored an average of 2.6 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (UEFA Europa League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.86, whereas Slavia Prague are 4.8, with the draw 3.9.

Initial analysis makes the back price on a straight Arsenal win quite appealing. Looking at xG for this match, Slavia Prague are on 1.08 with Arsenal on 1.49. In the previous leg, Slavia Prague created 0.73, with Arsenal 2.27. This highlights how fortunate Slavia Prague are to be going in to this match on level terms (or unfortunate for Arsenal).

In 4 of Arsenal’s last 5 away matches, they have scored 3 goals per match, against Leicester City, Olympiakos, West Ham and last weekend against Sheffield United. However, in all but 1 of these matches they have also conceded.

Other markets of interest are BTTS ‘Yes’ at 2, and over 2.5 goals at 2.12. However, with the tie evenly poised (although Prague have slight advantage with the away goal), over 2.5 goals looks to be the best value trade. It shouldn’t be such a cagey match, where a team looks to sit on a lead from the previous leg. Both teams should look to go out and attack, thus creating chances and goals – especially with Arsenal’s recent away goal exploits.

 

 

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Over’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.12.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over 2.5 goals’ at 2.1+ before the start (or shortly after) for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL V REAL MADRID

Date: 14th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In the first leg between these sides, Real Madrid won 1-3 (UEFA CL)

– Liverpool have lost 6 of their last 8 home matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have scored in 2 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid are undefeated in their last 13 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid have won their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid have scored 2 or more goals in all of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid have won 6 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Champions League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– In the first leg between these sides, Real Madrid won 1-3 (UEFA CL)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1.25 home goals, whilst conceding 0.5 (UEFA CL)

 

 

 

Real Madrid (all competitions)

– Real Madrid’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Real Madrid’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Real Madrid’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Real Madrid’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Real Madrid have scored an average of 1.25 away goals, whilst conceding 1 (UEFA CL)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.02, Real Madrid at 3.7, with the draw at 4.2.

 

Yesterday we saw Chelsea play out a 0-0 (until the 93rd minute) with a defensive display, having just 1 shot on target. It was predicted that the match would play out this way in the trade recommendation (under 2.5 goals). The PSG v Bayern match witnessed the same scenario, with Bayern winning 0-1, but with PSG going through to the semi-finals.

Will Real Madrid play the same strategy, sit deep, defend their lead and not look to score? The answer is, not likely.  Zidane’s team are on a roll at the moment, having won their last 6 matches, including last weekend’s ‘El Classico’ against Barcelona (2-1). Real Madrid have failed to score in a match just 3 times this season (from 30 matches). Liverpool have failed to score 8 times (31 matches).

 

It’s unlikely Zidane will instruct his team to just sit-back and not want to win at Anfield, against a Liverpool side that have recently lost at home to Fulham, Chelsea and Everton (without scoring). Real Madrid have the ability to absorb the Liverpool pressure, before punishing them on the counter-attack with Benzema and Vinicius Jr, against a weakened Liverpool defence.

 

Therefore, the value here is to back Real Madrid at a high-value price of 3.7, with a small hedge on the draw to cover. This has the same effect as laying Liverpool, but with greater weighting to Real Madrid than the draw.

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Real Madrid’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 3.7. The smaller staked hedge on the draw would cover any loss if Real Madrid don’t win as expected.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Real Madrid’ at 3.65+ before the start for 2.5 points.

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Draw’ at 4.1+ before the start for 0.8 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Real Madrid score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Real Madrid maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Liverpool score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Real Madrid equalizing

 

 

 

(bii) If Liverpool score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Real Madrid equalizing to use the hedge trade

 

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly positive (due to the hedge), leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Real Madrid scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close both the trades soon after

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA V PORTO

Date: 13th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In the first leg between these sides, Chelsea won 0-2 (UEFA CL)

– Chelsea have won 7 of their last 8 matches (UEFA CL)

– Chelsea have not conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches (UEFA CL)

– Chelsea have kept 13 clean sheets in their last 17 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Porto have lost their last 2 matches (UEFA CL)

– Porto have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Porto have seen both teams to score ‘No’, in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– In the first leg between these sides, Chelsea won 0-2 (UEFA CL)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.5 home goals, whilst conceding 0.25 (UEFA CL)

 

 

Porto (all competitions)

– Porto’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Porto’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Porto’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Porto’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Porto have scored an average of 1.75 away goals, whilst conceding 1.5 (UEFA CL)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.91, Porto at 4.5, with the draw at 3.85.

 

The back price on Chelsea looks appealing at initial appraisal here. However, starting with a two-goal lead, Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel has no reason to take any risk and chance his defence being exploited from the Porto counter-attack. This inevitably will lead to long spells of harmless, defensive possession for Chelsea, to run down the clock without establishing clear chances, but securing their place in the semi-finals.

 

This then points to a tight, cagey match that could quite realistically end 0-0, which would see a trade backing Chelsea come unstuck.

 

Instead, the under 2.5 goals market is favoured at a decent price of 1.98.

 

 

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 1.98.

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.96+ before the start for 3.5 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION V EVERTON

Date: 12th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where Everton won 4-2 (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have scored 5 goals in their last 3 home matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Everton have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Everton have won once in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Everton are 17th in the league for keeping clean sheets, with just 7 (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where Everton won 4-2 (Premier League)

– The previous 4 meetings have seen Brighton win 2 and Everton 2 (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Brighton & Hove Albion (all competitions)

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Brighton’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Brighton have scored an average of 1.07 home goals, whilst conceding 1.27 (Premier League)

 

 

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Everton’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Everton have scored an average of 1.5 away goals, whilst conceding 1.07 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Brighton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.42, Everton at 3.35, with the draw at 3.4.

 

Both teams are currently under-achieving in terms of their potential. Brighton appeared to be turning a corner recently with back-to-back wins over Newcastle and Southampton, before losing their last match away to Manchester United. However, they did take the lead in this fixture, before conceding 2 goals in the second-half.

 

Everton’s form has been poor of late, including drawing with Crystal Palace and losing to Burnley, both at home. These are matches Everton would have been expected to win, given that both these sides are well in the bottom half of the table.

 

Bottom line is, I don’t have enough confidence in either of them to back outright, and so other markets are looked at.

BTTS – ‘Yes’ appeals at a decent price of 1.9. Over 2.5 goals also appeals and is priced at 2.16 (down from a high of 2.32).

Given that 3 of the last 5 meetings between these sides have produced over 3.5 goals, with the last match registering over 5.5 goals, the value here looks to be backing over 2.5 at a decent price.

It should also be noted, that all Premier League matches played over the weekend just gone produced over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in all but 1 of them.

 

 

 

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Over’ offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.16. Predictology are actually even high-lighting over 3.5 goals as high-value at 4.04.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 2.14+ before the start (or shortly after) for 3 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED V LEICESTER CITY

Date: 11th  April 2021  Time (GMT): 14:05

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where West Ham won 0-3 (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have lost just once in their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches against Leicester (Premier League)

– Leicester haven’t won in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Leicester have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Leicester have seen BTTS in their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where West Ham won 0-3 (Premier League)

– The previous 4 meetings have seen Leicester win 2 and there has been 2 draws (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.73 home goals, whilst conceding 1.20 (Premier League)

 

 

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Leicester’s latest away match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Leicester have scored an average of 1.87 away goals, whilst conceding 0.87 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leicester go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.36, West Ham at 3.35, with the draw at 3.55.

West Ham go in to this match without Michail Antonio, their second-highest goal-scorer (midfielder Tomas Soucek is top, with 9). However, Leicester are without their top goal-scorer from open-play, Harvey Barnes (9 goals). Yes, Jamie Vardy is on 12 goals but 6 of those are from penalties. This actually puts Vardy on the same number of open-play goals as Jesse Lingard, who only joined West Ham at the end of January this year.

Looking at markets for a trade recommendation, BTTS – ‘Yes’ appeals, although the price is just 1.76. Over 2.5 goals also appeals and is priced at 1.98 (down from a high of 2.14).

However, the value here looks to be backing West Ham at 3.35. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as high-value.

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘West Ham’ offers high value for this match from a trading perspective at 3.35. However, a hedge trade will also be made on the draw, as detailed below.

 

 

 

Entry Point:

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at 3.3+ before the start for 2 points.

– It is advised to take a back position on ‘Draw’ at 3.5+ before the start for 1 point.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Leicester score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

 

(bii) If Leicester score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing to use the hedge trade

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly positive (due to the hedge), leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close both the trades soon after

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL V ASTON VILLA

Date: 10th  April 2021  Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Liverpool last played on Tuesday night in the Champions League, where they beaten 3-1 away by Real Madrid, with the second-leg coming up on Wednesday

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 home matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score ‘No’ in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Aston Villa have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have seen both teams to score ‘No’ in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January this year, where Liverpool won 1-4 (FA Cup)

– However, it should be noted that due to injuries and Covid-19, Aston Villa were forced to play a much weakened side

– The previous 4 meetings have seen Liverpool win 2 and Aston Villa 2

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1.47 home goals, whilst conceding 1.20 (Premier League)

 

 

Aston Villa (all competitions)

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.27 away goals, whilst conceding 0.8 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.54, Aston Villa at 6.8, with the draw at 4.7.

Considering that Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (the exception coming against Man City), and that Aston Villa have seen the same numbers in their away matches, under 2.5 goals here looks highly likely.

Also it should be noted that Liverpool have the 2nd-leg of their Champions League tie with Real Madrid on Wednesday, and key strikers could well be rested here (Salah / Mane).

Another important factor, is that Aston Villa have the 3rd tightest defence in the Premier League so far, conceding just 31 goals (Chelsea are 2nd on 30).

When the above information and stats are considered, then the price of under 2.5 goals at 2.4 looks a high-value trade position. The price is also expected to drop fairly quickly here after kick-off, and so a decent profit would be available before half-time.

 

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers excellent value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.4. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.34.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.38+ well before the start for 3 points.

It is also expected the price will drop when teams are announced 1-2 hours before kick-off.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: FULHAM V WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

Date: 9th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Fulham have conceded 8 goals in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Fulham have failed to win in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Fulham have conceded the 7th highest number of goals, with 43. Wolves have conceded the 8th highest, with 41 (Premier League)

– Wolves have drawn 2 of their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

– Wolves haven’t won in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have registered 118 shots on target this season, the exact same number as Fulham (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where Wolves won 1-0 (Premier League)

– The last time this fixture was played was in December 2018, which resulted in a 1-1 draw (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Fulham (all competitions)

– Fulham’s latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Fulham’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Fulham have scored an average of 0.56 home goals, whilst conceding 1.44 (Premier League)

 

 

Wolves (all competitions)

– Wolves latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Wolves latest away match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In Wolves last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Wolves last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Wolves have scored an average of 0.87 away goals, whilst conceding 1.53 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Fulham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.6, Wolves at 3.35, with the draw at 3.1.

Fulham lead the Premier league in the amount of draws they’ve had, and looking at the recent form of both sides, another draw here looks quite likely, with 1-1 the favourite score-line.

From this perspective, the both teams to score market looks most appealing.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers good value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.2. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as good value at 2.07.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2.18+ before the start for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Fulham score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or
(ii) If Wolves look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

(b) If Wolves score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

 

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Fulham scoring in the second-half, or
(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open on the expectation of goals.

(d) If neither teams have scored by approx. 60 mins, and neither seem to be searching for a goal, with few shots taken, then the position should be closed to minimize loss.

 

 

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: DINAMO ZAGREB V VILLARREAL

Date: 8th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 – Villarreal are ranked as the 18th best team in Europe (moving up one position), whereas Dinamo Zagreb are ranked 48th (Euroclub Index)

– Dinamo Zagreb have won their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Dinamo Zagreb have not conceded in their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– In their domestic Croatian league, Dinamo Zagreb have an (xGA – expected goals against) of 1.14

– Villarreal have won 9 and drawn 1 of their last 10 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Villarreal are the only unbeaten team in the competition (UEFA Europa League)

– Villarreal have only lost once in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December 2010, where Villarreal won 3-0 (Europa League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Dinamo Zagreb (all competitions)

– Dinamo Zagreb’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Dinamo Zagreb’s latest home match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Dinamo Zagreb’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Dinamo Zagreb’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Dinamo Zagreb have scored an average of 1.83 home goals, whilst conceding 0.33 (Europa League)

 

 

Villarreal (all competitions)

– Villarreal’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Villarreal’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Villarreal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Villarreal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Villarreal have scored an average of 1.8 away goals, whilst conceding 0.4 (Europa League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Villarreal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.94, Dinamo Zagreb at 4.8, with the draw at 3.6.

It’s difficult to see past an experienced Villarreal side here, and with the price available of 1.94, this offers good value on the superior side. Villarreal look undervalued here, given their recent form, experience in this competition and the differences between the domestic leagues of Croatia and Spain, that places Villarreal a full 30 positions above Dinamo Zagreb.

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Villarreal’ offers good value for this match from a trading perspective at 1.94. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as good value at 1.91.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Villarrea’ at 1.9+ before the start for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Villarreal score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Villarreal maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Dinamo Zagreb score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Villarreal equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Dinamo Zagreb score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Villarreal coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Villarreal scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: REAL MADRID V LIVERPOOL

Date: 6th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Real Madrid are undefeated in their last 11 matches (all competitions)

– Real Madrid are undefeated in 6 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Real Madrid have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Liverpool are undefeated in 7 of their last 8 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Liverpool are undefeated in their last 5 away matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 11 of their last 12 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in May 2018, where Real Madrid won 3-1 (Champions League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Real Madrid (all competitions)

– Real Madrid’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Real Madrid’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Real Madrid’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Real Madrid’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Real Madrid have scored an average of 1.79 home goals, whilst conceding 0.64 (La Liga)

 

 

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L0

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1.93 away goals, whilst conceding 1.2 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.54, Real Madrid at 3, with the draw at 3.6.

Now this pricing might be confusing, considering Real Madrid are at home. However, the English Premier League is a far more competitive league than the Spanish La Liga, where Real Madrid are currently 3rd. Considering that Liverpool have only conceded once in their last 5 away games, I think they will again put up a solid defensive display here.

 

With this in mind, it looks unlikely they will put as much focus on attack and will prefer to keep a clean sheet for the first leg of this tie.

 

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.1.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2+ before the start for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS V WEST HAM UNITED

Date:5th  April 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in September last year, where West Ham won 4-0 (Premier League)

– Wolves haven’t won in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Wolves have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– West Ham are undefeated in 15 of their last 18 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have scored 45 goals so far this season, with Wolves on 28 (Premier League)

– West Ham have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year in the Premier League, where West Ham United won 4-0

– Prior to that, the last 4 matches have seen Wolves win all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Wolverhampton Wanderers (all competitions)

– Wolves’ latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Wolves’ latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Wolves’ last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Wolves’  last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Wolves’ have scored an average of 1.07 home goals, whilst conceding 1.07 (Premier League)

 

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.36 away goals, whilst conceding 1.21 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham United go in to this match as slight favourites, currently priced at 2.84, Wolves at 2.92, with the draw at 3.2.

West Ham have a lot more at stake here than Wolves. A win would see them go 4th in the league table, pushing down Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool.

When comparing numbers with Wolverhampton, West Ham leads its opponent in all categories. West Ham have a respectable 40.3 xG and 33.8 xGA, resulting in a solid +6.5 xGDiff and +0.23 xGDiff/90 minutes.

 

West Ham are stronger in every area of the pitch, which is why they are currently 7th and Wolves are 14th.

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘West Ham’ offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective at 2.82.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at 2.76+ before the start for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Wolves score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

 

(bii) If Wolves score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED V BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION

Date: 4th  April 2021  Time (GMT):19:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last 5 meetings between these sides has resulted in over 2.5 goals (Premier League)

– Manchester United have won 3 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have conceded on average 1.36 goals at home (Premier League)

– Manchester United have won their last 5 matches against Brighton (all competitions)

– Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have lost 2 of their last 3 away matches (all competitions)

– Brighton have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year in the Premier League, where Manchester United won 0-3

– Prior to that, the last 4 matches have seen Manchester United win all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Manchester United have scored an average of 2.07 home goals, whilst conceding 1.36 (Premier League)

 

 

Brighton (all competitions)

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Brighton’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Brighton have scored an average of 1.14 away goals, whilst conceding 1.21 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.72 (from a low of 1.54), Brighton at 5.8, with the draw at 4.

The 1.72 on Man Utd to win at home is quite tempting, but still does not offer enough appeal for a trade recommendation, especially when upsets can so easily occur (look at Chelsea v West Brom yesterday). Instead, the both teams to score market looks decent value at 2, which has occurred in 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches.

 

BTTS – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective. Predictology are also highlighting this as a value proposition at 1.93.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.94+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester United score first in the first-half, then the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Brighton look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

 

(b) If Brighton score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Manchester United scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

 

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open and,

– The trade could be increased at a lower price, or

– If the teams don’t appear to be creating chances, then close the trade

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LEICESTER CITY V MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 3rd  April 2021 Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Leicester have scored in all of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester’s top-scorer (Vardy) has scored as many goals as Manchester City’s top-scorer Gundogan, with 12 goals (Premier League)

– Manchester City have scored 2 goals or more in all of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City are the leading scorers in the Premier League, with 64 goals (Leicester are 3rd, with 53)

– Manchester City have conceded 6 goals in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year in the Premier League, where Leicester won 2-5

– Prior to that, the last 4 matches have seen Manchester City win 3, and Leicester 1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Leicester’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Leicester have scored an average of 1.79 home goals, whilst conceding 1.36 (Premier League)

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has once

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Manchester City’s have scored an average of 2 away goals, whilst conceding 0.57 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.71 (from a low of 1.51), Leicester at 5.7, with the draw at 4.1.

With both teams having good goal-scoring form, the markets of interest are ‘both teams to score – yes’ and goals over 2.5. With BTTS Yes currently priced at 1.93 and over 2.5 at 1.96, the slightly higher priced (and more liquid) market is favoured.

 

 

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Over’ offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective. Predictology are also highlighting over 3.5 goals as a value proposition at 3.11.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 1.92+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

League: EFL CHAMPIONSHIP

Match: BARNSLEY V READING

Date: 2nd  April 2021 Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Barnsley have won 9 of their last 11 matches (Championship)

– Barnsley have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Championship)

– Barnsley have seen both teams to score in their last 3 matches (Championship)

– Reading have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Championship)

– Reading have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 3 matches (Championship)

– Reading have seen both teams to score in their last 3 matches (Championship)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year, where Reading won 2-0

– Prior to that, the last 4 matches have seen Reading win 2, and there have been 2 draws (1-1)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Barnsley (all competitions)

– Barnsley’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Barnsley’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Barnsley’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Barnsley’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Barnsley have scored an average of 1.26 home goals, whilst conceding 1 (Championship)

Reading (all competitions)

– Reading’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Reading’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Reading’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has 3 times

– In Reading’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Reading have scored an average of 1.21 away goals, whilst conceding 1.05 (Championship)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Barnsley go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.38, Reading at 3.5, with the draw at 3.3.

These teams are sitting in 5th and 6th in the table, with just 2 points between them. Both teams will want to win this in order for play-off positions, and both teams are more than capable of both scoring and conceding goals.

 

From this perspective, both teams to score looks a decent and profitable trade here at 2.06.

 

 

Both Teams To Score 

Backing ‘Yes’ at 2+ offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective. Predictology are also highlighting this as a value proposition at 1.98.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2+ before (or shortly after) the start for 4 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Barnsley score first in the first-half, then the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Reading look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

(b) If Reading score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Barnsley scoring

(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open and,

– The trade could be increased at a lower price, or

– If the teams don’t appear to be creating chances, then close the trade

 

Date: 1st  April 2021  – NO TRADE DAY

 

League: 2022 WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION

Match: ENGLAND v POLAND

Date: 31st  March 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– England have won 12 of their last 13 home matches (all competitions)

– England have not conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches (all competitions)

– England have won their last 8 home matches against Poland (all competitions)

– Poland have conceded 1 goal or more in all of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Poland have won 1 of their last 4 away matches (all competitions)

– Poland will be without their top-scorer and captain (Lewandowski) for this match

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in a WC qualified in 2013, where England won 2-0

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

England (all competitions)

– England’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– England’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In England’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In England’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– England have scored an average of 2 home goals, whilst conceding 0.67 (UEFA Nations League)

 

 

Poland (all competitions)

– Poland’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Poland’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Poland’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Poland’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Poland have scored an average of 0.67 away goals, whilst conceding 1.33 (UEFA Nations League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

England go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.36, Poland at 11, with the draw at 5.7.

Considering that England have only conceded in 1 match in their last 5, and that Poland are without Lewandowski, it’s difficult seeing Poland scoring here. BTTS – ‘No’ is considered, but the price is not appealing at just 1.67. ‘England to win to nil’ is another option at 2.06, but this market is not very established at this point (just over £600 matched).

Depending on the defensiveness of the starting line-ups, under 2.5 goals holds decent value appeal at 2 (evens).

 

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ at 2 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective.

NOTE: THIS RECOMMENDATION COULD CHANGE AS TEAM NEWS IS DIGESTED. IF SO, A FURTHER UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.96+ before, the start for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

Date: 30th  March 2021 – NO TRADE DAY

Date: 29th  March 2021 – NO TRADE DAY

 

 

League / Cup: 2022 WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION

Match: UKRAINE v FINLAND

Date: 28th  March 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Ukraine have scored in all of their last 3 home matches

– Ukraine have have scored against France, Germany and Switzerland in their last 3 home matches

– Finland have scored in all of their last 5 away matches

– Finland have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches

– Finland have conceded 1 goal or more in 3 of their last 5 away matches

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in a WC qualified in 2017, where Ukraine won 1-2

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Ukraine (all competitions)

– Ukraine’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Ukraine’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Ukraine’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Ukraine’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Ukraine have scored an average of 1.33 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (UEFA Nations League)

 

 

Finland (all competitions)

– Finland’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Finland’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L2

– In Finland’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Finland’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Finland have scored an average of 1.33 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.33 (UEFA Nations League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Ukraine go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.72, Finland at 6.2, with the draw at 3.8.

I’m quite in favour of a Ukraine win here, but the price isn’t good enough for a trade recommendation. However, given Finland’s decent record of away scoring, a both teams to score scenario looks likely.

 

 

BTTS – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ at 2.12 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2.1+ before, the start (or shortly after kick-off to get a better price) for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Ukraine score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Finland look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

(b) If Finland score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Ukraine scoring in the second-half

(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased at a bigger price.

 

Date: 26th  March 2021  – No Trade Day

 

League: 2022 WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION

Match: BELGIUM v WALES

Date: 24th  March 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Belgium have won 4 of their last 5 matches

– Belgium have have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches

– Belgium have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches

– Wales have not lost in their last 5 matches

– Wales have seen both teams to score zero times in their last 5 matches

– Wales have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in Euro 2016, where Wales won 3-1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Belgium (all competitions)

– Belgium’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Belgium’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Belgium’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Belgium’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Belgium have scored an average of 3.67 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (UEFA Nations League)

 

 

Wales (all competitions)

– Wales’ latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Wales’ latest away match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Wales’ last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Wales’ last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Wales have scored an average of 0.67 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0 (UEFA Nations League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Belgium unsurprisingly go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.38, Wales at 10.5, with the draw at 5.4.

With the likes of De Bruyne, Tielemens and Lukaku all likely to start here, it’s difficult to see past a convincing Belgium win including a fair amount of goals.

BTTS ‘Yes’, is tempting, which is currently at a decent 2.38, whereas over 2.5 goals is 1.98.

Considering that Belgium are an open attacking team, it’s difficult seeing Wales keeping them out, even though they’ve kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 away games. However, against a strong team such as Belgium (ranked #1 in the World), this won’t be a dull match and so goals are expected, possibly from both teams.

 

 

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Over’ at 1.98 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 1.98+ before, the start (or shortly after kick-off to get a better price) for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

Date: 22nd  March 2021  – No Trade Day

Date: 23rd  March 2021  – No Trade Day

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v ARSENAL

Date: 21st  March 2021  Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– West Ham have won 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have won 1 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have gone 11 games without a clean sheet (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year, where Arsenal won 2-1  (Premier League)

– Prior to that, the last 4 matches have seen West Ham win 1, and Arsenal 3

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.64 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.07 (Premier League)

 

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Arsenal’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.36 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal surprisingly go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.46, West Ham at 3.2, with the draw at 3.5.

On the face of the game, positions in the league table and form, West Ham should be favourites to win here. Not to mention that Arsenal played on Thursday night, whilst West Ham have had more recuperation and preparation time.

I am tempted to recommend the backing of West Ham for this match, but it depends on how manager David Moyes sets the team up. Last week we saw a defensive set-up against Manchester United, which ultimately failed due to an own-goal (and without Lingard being legible to play). Therefore, other markets are considered:

BTTS Yes, is currently at 1.83, whereas over 2.5 goals is 1.92.

Considering that Arsenal have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches, and that West Ham have scored in all of their last 5 home matches, both teams to score looks good value.

 

BTTS – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ at 1.83 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective.

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.8+ before, the start (or shortly after kick-off to get a better price) for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Arsenal score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If West Ham look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

(b) If West Ham score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Arsenal scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open, or closed if neither team are actively looking for chances.

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: EVERTON v MANCHESTER CITY

Date:20th March 2021  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Everton have lost their last 2 matches (Premier League)

– Everton has seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Everton have scored 1 goal or less in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Manchester City have not conceded in their last 3 away matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have won 13 of their last 14 matches (FA Cup)

– Manchester City have won their last 6 matches against Everton (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year, where a Manchester City won 1-3  (Premier League)

– Prior to that, the last 4 matches have seen Manchester City win all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Everton’s have scored an average of 1.36 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.57 (Premier League)

 

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.57 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as clear favourites, currently priced at 1.33, Everton at 11, with the draw at 6.

It’s difficult to look past a Manchester City win here, but the price does not appeal for a trade recommendation. Instead, other markets are looked at that could provide higher-value.

BTTS No, is currently at 1.81, whereas under 2.5 goals is 2.34.

Considering that Manchester City have not conceded a goal in their last 3 away matches, this should be more of the same, where Manchester City take a lead early on, and then proceed to pass the ball around in their own half. Therefore, under 2.5 goals at the price appeals.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5 goals

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.34 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.3+ before, the start for 3 points.

 

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: FULHAM v LEEDS UNITED

Date: 19th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in September last year, where a Leeds won 4-3  (Premier League)

– Fulham have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League).

– Fulham have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 home matches (all competitions)

– Fulham have seen under 1.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League).

– Leeds haven’t won in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have failed to score in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have seen under 1.5 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year, where a Leeds won 4-3  (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Fulham (all competitions)

– Fulham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Fulham’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Fulham have scored an average of 0.53 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.4 (Premier League)

 

 

Leeds United (all competitions)

– Leeds United’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– Leeds United’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Leeds United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In Leeds United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Leeds United have scored an average of 1.71 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.07 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Fulham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.64, Leeds at 2.92, with the draw at 3.5.

Interestingly, both of these teams have seen both to to score ‘No’ in their last 5 matches. Both teams are also on a goal draught, having scored just one goal combined in their last 3 matches. Yes, that’s right. Both of these teams goals combined in their last 3 matches have scored just 1 goal (Fulham against Liverpool on 7th March). Leeds have not scored a single goal in their last 3 matches.

BTTS No, is currently at a decent 2.1, whereas under 2.5 goals is 1.86.

This has the makings of a tight low-scoring affair. Therefore, the higher-value position of BTTS No at 2.1 is favoured.

 

 

BTTS – No

Backing ‘No’ at 2.1 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective. Predictology is also favouring this selection at high-value at 2.01.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 2+ before, the start for 3.5 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Left to run further on the expectation of both teams not scoring in the second-half

(b) If Fulham score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as slightly positive, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Leeds not scoring

 

(c) If Leeds score first in the first-half, then:

– Leave the trade open further on the of Fulham not scoring

 

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match:AC MILAN v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date:18th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was earlier this month in the first-leg, where a 1-1 draw played out (Europa League)

– AC Milan are undefeated in 11 of their last 12 matches (Europa League)

– AC Milan have drawn their last 3 matches (Europa League)

– AC Milan have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United are undefeated in their last 13 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have drawn 4 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 6 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was earlier this month in the first-leg, where a 1-1 draw played out (Europa League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

AC Milan (all competitions)

– Milan’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Milan’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Milan’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Milan’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Milan have scored an average of 1.79 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.43 (Serie A)

 

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L1

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred zero times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.8 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.87 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.28, AC Milan at 3.45, with the draw at 3.6.

Looking at other markets, both teams to score ‘Yes’ is currently trading at 1.77, whilst over 2.5 goals is 1.98.

The first leg of this tie saw 2 early Milan goals ruled out. However, this does show they will be keen to attack and possibly be more fortunate. With this match tightly poised, both teams to score does look very probable. However, the price on over 2.5 goals is more appealing and also seems as probable, given that key players for both teams should be available for this fixture.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Over’ at 1.98 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective.

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 1.98+ before, or shortly after the start for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER CITY v BORUSSIA M’GLADBACH

Date: 16th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was 3 weeks ago in the first-leg, where Manchester City won 0-2 (Champions League)

– Manchester City have won by 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have kept 6 consecutive clean sheets (UEFA Champions League)

– Man City have won to nil in 5 of their last 6 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Borussia M’gladbach have lost their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Borussia M’gladbach have lost 2-0 in their last 2 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Borussia M’gladbach have scored just 1 goal in their last 3 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was 3 weeks ago in the first-leg, where Manchester City won 0-2 (Champions League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Manchester City’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 2.25 home goals this season, whilst conceding 0.81 (Premier League)

 

 

Borussia M’gladbach (all competitions)

– M’gladbach’s latest match record reads W0 D0 L5

– M’gladbach’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In M’gladbach’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In M’gladbach’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– M’gladbach have scored an average of 1.75 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2 (Bundesliga)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.27, M’gladbach at 13.5, with the draw at 6.8.

M’gladbach are in a poor run of form, having lost their last 5 matches whilst also failing to score in 3 of them. Again, it must be noted that Manchester City have conceded the least goals in the Premier League, and also have a strong record of not conceding in the Champions League.

 

Looking at markets to profit from this match, the Manchester City -1.5 goals appeals. However, the price is just 1.77, and looking for more value, the both teams to score market ‘No’ is currently trading at a slightly better 1.81.

 

 

BTTS – No

Backing ‘No’ at 1.81 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.78+ before the start for 4 points.

It should also be noted that this market is not fully developed yet and has less than 5k matched, so this price is expected to fall with time.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Left to run further on the expectation of M’gladbach not scoring in the second-half (it is expected Manchester City will score)

(b) If Manchester City score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing as slightly positive, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of M’gladbach not scoring

 

(c) If M’gladbach score first in the first-half, then:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v LIVERPOOL

Date: 15th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where Liverpool won 4-0 (Premier League)

– Wolves have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 7 matches (all competitions)

– Wolves have won just 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Wolves have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have won their last 8 matches against Wolves (Premier League)

– Liverpool have won 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 6 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where Liverpool won 4-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings between these sides have seen Wolves win 1, and Liverpool 3

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Wolverhampton Wanderers (all competitions)

– Wolves latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Wolves latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Wolves last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Wolves last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Wolves have scored an average of 1.15 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.08 (Premier League)

 

 

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred zero times

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1.92 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.38 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.74, Wolves at 5.7, with the draw at 3.95.

In technical trading terms, Liverpool now look to be edging back to the mean after dipping down to the low of their bolinger band. In other words, they’ve hit the lowest they are likely to go during this period and will now start to move on up. In fact, they have won 4 of their last 5 away matches, but it has been home form that has contributed to their slump.

Mid-week in the Champions League, they had central midfielder Fabinho back in his favoured position, and a positive result ensued.

Therefore, an away win for Liverpool is anticipated.

 

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Liverpool’ at 1.74 offers decent-value for this match from a trading perspective. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high value at 1.72.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Liverpool’ at 1.7+ before the start for 5 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Liverpool score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Liverpool maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Wolves score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Liverpool equalizing and coming back

 

(bii) If Wolves score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Liverpool coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for a profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Liverpool scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 14th March 2021  Time (GMT):19:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in February this year in the FA Cup, where it finished 0-0, with Manchester United winning 1-0 in ET

– Manchester United have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have drawn 2 of their last 3 matches against West Ham (all competitions)

– West Ham are undefeated in 14 of their last 16 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham are just 6 points behind Manchester United, and have a game in-hand (Premier League)

– Tomas Soucek is currently West Ham’s top scorer with 8 goals. This is level with the 8 goals scored by Bruno Fernandes from open play, with the other 8 of Fernandes’ goals coming from penalties (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year in the FA Cup, where it finished 0-0, with Manchester United winning 1-0 in ET

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings between these sides have seen Manchester United win 2, West Ham 1, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W1 D4 L0

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United’s have scored an average of 2.15 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.46 (Premier League)

 

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L1

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.46 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.23 (Premier League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.93, West Ham at 4.7, with the draw at 3.65.

In this instance, the back price on West Ham looks very appealing at this price, because:

 – Manchester United last played on Thursday in the Europa League, where they were fortunate to come away with a 1-1 draw against AC Milan.

 – West Ham last played on Monday (where they defeated Leeds 2-0), and therefor have 3 days rest over Manchester United.

 – Looking at the expected line-ups for Manchester United, they could be without strikers Rashford, Martial and Cavani due to injury.

 – West Ham leads the league in shots taken from inside the six-yard box because Souček and Antonio are excellent at getting into these key positions.

– Unfortunately, West Ham will be illegible to play Lingard, for the reason the loanee cannot play against his parent club. However, he does seem to have settled well with his new team and will no doubt be able to share useful player information with the group.

– The same can be said for West Ham manager, David Moyes, that has also previously managed many of the Manchester United players during his spell there.

 

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘West Ham’ at 4.7 offers high-value for this match from a trading perspective. It is also advised to take the price as early as possible, since it is expected to fall closer to kick-off.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at 4.2+ before the start for 2 points.  

A hedge trade may also be advised of before the match on further review of the confirmed starting teams.

 

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Manchester United score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Manchester United score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for a profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: FULHAM v MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 13th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, with Manchester City winning 2-0 (Premier League)

– Fulham have won 1 of their last 10 home matches (Premier League)

– Fulham have seen both teams to score ‘No’ in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Fulham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 meetings with Manchester City (Premier League)

– Manchester City are currently the highest goal-scorers in the Premier League (61 goals)

– Manchester City have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches  (all competitions)

– Manchester City have won 22 of their last 23 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, with Manchester City winning 2-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings between these sides have seen Manchester City win all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Fulham (all competitions)

– Fulham’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Fulham’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just zero times

– Fulham have scored an average of 0.57 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.29 (Premier League)

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester City’s have scored an average of 1.92 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.62 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Unsurprisingly, Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.39, Fulham at 10, with the draw at 5.3.

Interestingly, Manchester City’s back price has been traded earlier at a low of 1.26, and has since climbed to a high of 1.41. Conversely, Fulham’s has traded at 14, before dropping to it’s current low.

Although Manchester City have conceded the lowest number of goals so far in the Premier League (21), they have conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches (against Southampton, Wolves and West Ham).

Although not prolific scorers, Fulham should approach this game with more confidence having beaten Liverpool in their last match, played very well and fully deserved the win. I can also see them scoring here, even though their xG for this match is just 0.69.

The both teams to score ‘Yes’ market is 2.24 to back, whilst the over 2.5 goals market is 1.89.  Predictology are also highlighting the BTTS ‘Yes’ selection as high-value at 2.13.

 

BTTS – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ at 2.24 offers decent value for this match from a trading perspective.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2.2+ before the start for 3 points. Alternatively, a better price could be attained by waiting a few minutes after kick-off, although the risk is here missing the trade if an early goal is scored.

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Manchester City score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Fulham look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

(b) If Fulham score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Manchester City scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open, or closed if neither team are creating chances.

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED v ASTON VILLA

Date: 12th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January this year, with Aston Villa winning 2-0 (Premier League)

– Newcastle have lost 8 of their last 12 matches (Premier League)

– Newcastle have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Newcastle have scored just 2 goals in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Newcastle have scored the 5th fewest goals so far in the Premier League (27)

– Aston Villa have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have seen under both teams to score ‘No’ in their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January this year, with Aston Villa winning 2-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings between these sides have seen Newcastle win 1, Aston Villa 1, and there has been 2 draws

– These last 5 matches have all seen under 2.5 goals, with both teams to score ‘Yes’ occurring twice

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Newcastle United (all competitions)

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Newcastle’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just twice

– Newcastle have scored an average of 1.23 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.69 (Premier League)

Aston Villa(all competitions)

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.29 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.79 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Aston Villa go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.18, Newcastle at 3.95, with the draw at 3.45.

With several key players still missing for Newcastle, including their top 3 goal-scorers and creative outlet, it’s difficult to see them scoring against a defensively solid Aston Villa that have conceded just a single goal in their last 4 away matches.  Aston Villa are also missing their key creator and assist provider (Grealish), and it has been noted how their form and goals have dropped off since his absence.

This would then appear that a cautious approach will be taken by both teams, with not losing a priority, setting this up for a defensive, cagey and low-scoring encounter.

In fact, 4 of Aston Villa’s last 5 matches have seen under 1.5 goals. This market has some appeal at a back price of around 3.2. However, the lower-risk market of under 2.5 goals is favoured for a trade recommendation.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ at 1.73 offers fair-value for this match from a trading perspective.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.7+ before the start for 3.5 points.

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the match

(d) If 2 goals have been scored and the time reaches 75 minutes, then:

– Close the trade for a profit

 

 

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v AC MILAN

Date: 11th March 2021  Time (GMT):17:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in the International Champions Cup in August 2019, with a 2-2 draw taking place

– Manchester United have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score ‘No’ in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– AC Milan have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– AC Milan have lost only 1 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– AC Milan have drawn their last 2 matches (UEFA Europa League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in the International Champions Cup in August 2019, with a 2-2 draw taking place

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Manchester United have scored an average of 2.15 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.46 (Premier League)

AC Milan (all competitions)

– AC Milan’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– AC Milan’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In AC Milan’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In AC Milan’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– AC Milan have scored an average of 1.92 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.85 (Serie A)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.65, AC Milan at 6.6, with the draw at 4.

With several key players missing for Milan, and with their top goal-scorer (Ibrahimovich) a major doubt, it’s difficult to see them scoring against a Manchester United that have conceded just a single goal in their last 5 matches. Key striker (Rashford) for Manchester United is also a doubt, as is Cavani (United’s 2nd and 3rd highest scorers).

This would then appear that a cautious approach will be taken by Manchester United, with keeping a clean-sheet a priority.

 

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ at 2 is high-value for this match from a trading perspective.

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.94+ before the start for 3 points.



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(d) If 2 goals have been scored and the time reaches 75 minutes, then:

– Close the trade for a profit

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL v RB LEIPZIG

Date: 10th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in the 1st-leg of this tie last month, with Liverpool winning 0-2 away (Champions League)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool are undefeated in 6 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 11 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– RB Leipzig have not conceded in their last 3 away games (Bundesliga)

– RB Leipzig have won 8 of their last 9 matches (all competitions)

– RB Leipzig have lost 4 of their last 8 matches (UEFA Champions League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in the 1st-leg of this tie last month, with Liverpool winning 0-2 away (Champions League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2  D0 L3

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred zero times

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1.47 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.2 (Premier League)

 

RB Leipzig (all competitions)

– Leipzig’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Leipzig’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Leipzig’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Leipzig’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Leipzig have scored an average of 1.83 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.92 (Bundesliga)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Both teams go in to this match currently priced at 2.7, with the draw at 3.75. There is currently nearly £600,000 matched on this market, so it is evident that the market is split.

With Liverpool’s advantage from the first-leg, and considering that Liverpool’s last 5 matches have seen under 2.5 goals, it is expected that Liverpool will look at defence as more important than offence in this encounter.

 

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ at 2.4 is high-value for this match from a trading perspective. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as good value at 2.3.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.3+ before the start for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

 

(d) If 2 goals have been scored and the time reaches 75 minutes, then:

– Close the trade for a profit

 

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: BORUSSIA DORTMUND v SEVILLA

Date: 9th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Borussia Dortmund are undefeated in their last 6 home matches (all competitions)

– Borussia Dortmund have drawn 3 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Sevilla are undefeated in their last 6 away matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Sevilla are have drawn 4 of their last 8 away matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Sevilla have lost 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year, where Dortmund won 2-3 away

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Borussia Dortmund (all competitions)

– Dortmund’s latest match record reads W4  D0 L1

– Dortmund’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Dortmund’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Dortmund’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Dortmund have scored an average of 2.27 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.27 (Bundesliga)

 

Sevilla (all competitions)

– Sevilla’s latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Sevilla’s latest away match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Sevilla’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Sevilla’s  last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Sevilla have scored an average of 1.23 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.85 (La Liga)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Dortmund go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.28, whereas Sevilla are 3.3, with the draw at 3.8.

The first leg of this tie was higher scoring because of two early goals — a deflected Suso goal for Sevilla and a 25-yard goal from Dahoud for Dortmund. That game had just 2.3 combined xG, with all three big-scoring chances being converted on top of the two low-percentage goals.

The pressure will be on Sevilla to create chances, but they are one of the slowest tempo teams in Europe. Sevilla isn’t used to chasing goals, and Dortmund will be focused on protecting its lead due to away goals.

With these points in mind, this should be a more cagey and tight, low-scoring encounter.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ at 2.36 looks decent value for this match from a trading perspective. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as good value at 2.3.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.3+ before the start for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

 

(d) If 2 goals have been scored and the time reaches 75 minutes, then:

– Close the trade for a profit

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match:WEST HAM UNITED v LEEDS UNITED

Date: 8th March 2021     Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where West Ham won 1-2 away

– West Ham have won 7 of their last 10 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have won 5 of last 6 home matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Leeds have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have lost their last 2 away matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have lost 6 of their last 9 away matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where West Ham won 1-2 away

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.62 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.15 (Premier League)

Leeds United (all competitions)

– Leeds United’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Leeds United’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Leeds United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Leeds United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Leeds United have scored an average of 1.85 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.08 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.14, whereas Leeds are 3.65, with the draw at 3.75.

West Ham are currently 7th in the table, but a win here could put them back in to 4th (depending on the result of the earlier match between Chelsea v Everton). Leeds are sitting in 11th, and are perhaps both the most unpredictable and inconsistent team in the Premier League.

West Ham in terms of fewest goals conceded, sit in 6th (31), whilst Leeds are in 15th with 44 conceded.  In terms of goals scored, there’s not a lot to separate them, with West Ham on 40 and Leeds on 43.

With the above taken in to consideration, and with West Ham’s greater consistency and improved goal-scoring capabilities (thanks to Lingard), West Ham are favoured over Leeds for this match.

Match Odds 

Backing ‘West Ham’ at 2.14 looks decent value for this match from a trading perspective. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as good value at 2.1.

 

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at 2.1+ before the start for 3 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Leeds score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Leeds score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER CITY v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date:7th March 2021  Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January this year in the League Cup, where Manchester City won 0-2 away

– Manchester City have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Manchester City have also conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League so far (17)

– Manchester City have recorded the most clean sheets in the Premier League league so far (15)

– Manchester United have conceded just 1 goal (total) in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have recorded a 0-0 scoreline in their last 3 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January this year in the League Cup, where Manchester City won 0-2 away

– Prior to this in the previous 4 meetings, City have won 1, United have won 2, and there has been 1 draw (all competitions)

– 4 of the last 5 meetings between these sides have seen under 2.5 goals and both teams to score ‘No’

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Manchester City’s latest home match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 2.21 home goals this season, whilst conceding 0.64 (Premier Legue)

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L0

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W1 D4 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.79 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.93 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as big favourites, currently priced at 1.56, whereas Manchester United are 7.2, with the draw at 4.4.

Looking at the goals scored and conceded both in their recent matches, and historically, this does not look like a high-scoring match. For instance, in Manchester United’s last 3 Premier League matches, they have recorded a 0-0. They have recently failed to score against Crystal Palace, Chelsea and Arsenal, whilst managing just a single goal against West Brom. Considering this, it is hard to imagine how they will score against the best defence in the Premier League when they are likely to have a low ball-possession %.

Manchester United however have also not been conceding many goals, which their run of 0-0 results show.

Manchester City seem to score early and then are happy to sit back and control possession, often just passing it around the back. Their last match against Wolves was another example of this, where defence was prioritised right until the end when they scored twice in added time.

Taking these factors in to account, a tight low-scoring match is expected. City actually have an xG of 1.78 for this match, with United having 0.62 – so 2.4 in total.

Under 2.5 goals is available to back at 2.08, whilst BTTS ‘No’ is 1.95. Therefore, the better value offered is the under 2.5 goals market.

 

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ at 2.08 looks decent value for this match from a trading perspective.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2+ before the start for 3 points.



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss

(d) If 2 goals have been scored and the time reaches 75 minutes, then:

– Close the trade for a profit

 

 

NGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match:BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION V  LEICESTER CITY

Date: 6th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00 

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was last month in the FA Cup, where Leicester won 1-0

– Brighton have seen under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen both teams to score ‘No’ in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Brighton have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Leicester have won 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have not lost in their last 9 away matches (Premier League)

– Leicester have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was last month in the FA Cup, where Leicester won 1-0

– Prior to this in the previous 4 meetings, Leicester have won 3, and there has been 1 draw (Premier League)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Brighton (all competitions)

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Brighton’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Brighton have scored an average of 0.92 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.31 (Premier Legue)

 

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Leicester’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Leicester have scored an average of 1.86 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.86 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Brighton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.68, whereas Leicester are 3, with the draw at 3.35.

Both teams are in a slight mini-slump, with neither having won in their last 3 matches. Brighton have put in some good performances, but struggle to score goals. Leicester are missing some key players to injury, namely Barnes and Maddison. These two players are not just the second and third highest scorers for Leicester, on 9 and 8 goals, but they are also key assist providers, on 4 and 5 respectively.

Top Leicester goal-scorer is recently back in the team following surgery, but perhaps is still not 100%.

Taking these factors in to account, a tight low-scoring match is expected.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

 

Backing ‘Under’ at 1.7 looks fair value for this match from a trading perspective.

 

Entry Point:

 

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.64+ before the start for 3 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

Match: HUDDERSFIELD TOWN V CARDIFF CITY

Date: 5th March 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where Cardiff won 3-0 (Championship)

– Huddersfield have won 1 of their last 13 matches (all competitions)

– Huddersfield have scored 1 goal or more in 16 of their last 17 home matches (all competitions)

– Cardiff have won their last 3 matches against Huddersfield (Championship)

– Cardiff have won 4 of their last 5 away matches (Championship)

– Cardiff have won 7 of the last 8 matches (Championship)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where Cardiff won 3-0 (Championship)

– Prior to this in the previous 4 meetings, Cardiff have won 2, and there has been 2 draws (all competitions)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Huddersfield Town (all competitions)

– Huddersfield’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Huddersfield’s latest home match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In Huddersfield’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Huddersfield’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Huddersfield have scored an average of 1.47 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.06 (Championship)

 

Cardiff City (all competitions)

– Cardiff’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Cardiff’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Cardiff’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Cardiff’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Cardiff have scored an average of 1.29 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.94 (Championship)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Cardiff go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.3, whereas Huddersfield are 3.7, with the draw at 3.45.

 

Cardiff are pushing for a place in the play-offs, and have been in a good run of form having won 4 of their last 5 away games.  Huddersfield however have won just 1 in their last 5 at home. With Cardiff having won the last 3 meetings between these sides, it is expected they will make it 4 with another win here.

 

 

Match Odds

 

Backing ‘Cardiff’ at 2.3 looks good value for this match from a trading perspective. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.13.

 

Entry Point:

 

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Cardiff’ at 2.24+ before the start for 2 points.

 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Cardiff score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Cardiff maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Huddersfield score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Cardiff equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Huddersfield score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Cardiff coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Cardiff scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA

Date: 4th March 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have lost their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have not conceded a goal 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year, where Liverpool won 0-2 away (Premier League)

– Prior to this in the previous 4, Liverpool have won 2, Chelsea 1, and there has been 1 draw (all competitions)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W0 D1 L4

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1.69 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.23 (Premier League)

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred zero times

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.08 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.28, whereas Chelsea are 3.4, with the draw at 3.65.

 

Just 1 point separates these teams in the league table, with Chelsea on 44 and Liverpool on 43. One of the key match selection criteria for the classic LTD (lay the draw) strategy, is that the teams should be some distance apart in the league – i.e. the closer they are, the more likely a draw is to occur. In fact, the last time these sides registered a draw in the Premier League was in 2018 – when Liverpool were 2nd and Chelsea were 3rd in the table.

It should also be remembered that both these teams drew 0-0 when they played Manchester United last, further showing that these types of marque matches are not the goal-fests often expected by fans.

 

This match does have all the makings of a draw, with both sides looking ‘not to lose’ as paramount .  However, the risk with backing the draw, especially with VAR, is that a penalty could easily decide the outcome of an otherwise closely contested match.

 

Therefore, with both sides currently displaying a lack of goals, a low-scoring, tight affair looks most likely. In fact, Predictology are calculating that the best-value and most probable score-line is 1-1.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ at 2.12 looks good value for this match from a trading perspective.

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.08+ before the start for 3 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CRYSTAL PALACE V MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 3rd March 2021 Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Crystal Palace have conceded the 5th highest amount of goals in the Premier League (43)

– Crystal Palace have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 games, including their last 2 home matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have seen both teams to score just once in their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score just once in their last 4 away matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have not conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year, where Crystal Palace won 1-3 away (Premier League)

– Prior to this in the previous 4, Manchester United have won 2, Crystal Palace 1, and there has been 1 draw (all competitions)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Crystal Palace (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Crystal Palace’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.08 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.62 (Premier League)

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L0

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.92 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.45, whereas Crystal Palace are 8.8, with the draw at 5.

Crystal Palace’s top goal-scorer Zaha has scored nine of Crystal Palace’s league goals this season. No other Palace player has scored more than four. In the past four matches without Zaha, Palace have failed to score three times. They have a total of two goals in that stretch  (on 1.4 xG).

Zaha again is again expected to miss this match due to injury, and with Manchester United conceding just 2 goals in their last 5 away games, it looks unlikely Crystal Palace are going to score here.

 

Both Teams To Score

Backing ‘No’ at 1.9 looks good value for this match. Infogol are also highlighting this selection at high-value at 1.87.

 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.85+ before the start for 3 points.

 



 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of both teams not scoring in the second-half

(b) If Manchester United score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as slightly positive, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Crystal Palace not scoring

(c) If Crystal Palace score first in the first-half, then:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(d) If Crystal Palace score first in the second-half, then:

– Leave open on the expectation that Manchester United don’t score in the second-half (risky), or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: EVERTON V SOUTHAMPTON

Date: 1st March 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Everton go in to this match off the back of their historic win against Liverpool at Anfield (Premier League)

– Everton are ranked 10th in the league on least goals conceded (33), whereas Southampton are 17th (43)

– Southampton go in to this match following a 3-0 away loss to Leeds United (Premier League)

– Southampton have failed to win any of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where Southampton won 2-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this in the previous 4, Everton have won 1, Southampton 1, and there has been 2 draws (both 1-1)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Everton have scored an average of 1.42 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.67 (Premier League)

 

Southampton (all competitions)

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Southampton’s latest away match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.17 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.25 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Everton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.12, whereas Southampton are 3.75, with the draw at 3.7.

Everton looks to have turned a corner, and they should look to follow-up on last weeks win over Liverpool. Southampton’s form has been poor away from home, and this looks set to continue with a host of fresh injury concerns that will miss this match. This includes Minamino, the goal-scorer in Southampton’s 1-1 home draw with Chelsea. Romeu, Walker-Peters and Walcott are also out.

The momentum for this match will be with Everton, and with Rodriguez, Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin all set to start, should be able to see off an injury depleted Southampton.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Everton’ at 2.12 looks good value for this match.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Everton’ at 2.08+ before the start for 3 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Everton score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Everton maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Southampton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Everton equalizing and coming back

 

(bii) If Southampton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Everton equalizing and coming back

 

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Everton scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA V MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 28th February 2021  Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where a 0-0 draw occurred (Premier League)

– Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 9 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 7 of their 8 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have seen both teams to score just once in their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 4 away matches against Chelsea (all competitions)

– Manchester United have drawn 4 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away games (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where a 0-0 draw occurred (Premier League)

– Prior to this in the previous 4, Chelsea y have won 1, and Manchester United have won 3

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L0

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.92 home goals this season, whilst conceding 0.92 (Premier League)

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Manchester United’s have scored an average of 2.08 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.08 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.3, whereas Manchester United are 3.55, with the draw at 3.4.

The last time these two sides met ended in a 0-0 draw.

New Chelsea manager Tuchel’s press-and-possess style has helped the defence because Chelsea has so much more of the ball than it had prior. But its attack has not been great or consistent at creating big scoring chances. Chelsea has created just 8.6 xG in six matches since the manager change.

However, Chelsea’s defence is now comfortably second-best in the Premier League behind Manchester City. They have yet to allow more than 0.7 xGA in a match under their new manager.

Therefore, this again looks to be a cagey tight affair, with both teams looking to avoid defeat. Under 2.5 goals is therefore projected with xG also being cast at 2.33.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Under 2.5’ at 1.87 makes good value appeal. Infogol are also selecting this as high-value at 1.85.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘under 2.5’ at 1.87 before the start for 4 points.



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER CITY V WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 27th February 2021  Time (GMT):12:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where a 1-1 draw played out (Premier League)

– Man City have won 19 consecutive matches (all competitions)

– Man City have not conceded in their last 7 home matches (all competitions)

– Man City have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games (Premier League)

– West Ham have scored the 7th highest number of goals in the Premier League

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where a 1-1 draw played out (Premier League)

– Prior to this in the previous 4, Manchester City have won all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Manchester City’s latest home match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 2.08 home goals this season, whilst conceding 0.58 (Premier League)

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.5 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.17 (Bundesliga)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as massive favourites, currently priced at 1.25, whereas West Ham are 13.5, with the draw at 7.4.

The last time these two sides met ended in a 1-1 draw. Both teams have improved since then admittedly. Manchester City have been on a good run, winning their last home games against lower table opposition (Tottenham, Sheffield United, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace & Brighton).

West Ham United though are now a totally different beast to what City played before. They are strong in every area, and will not sit back and let City just pass it around. They will also counter-attack quickly and will be dangerous from set-pieces. New loan-signing Lingard is making improvements to the team and scoring goals, and all players seem to have a camaraderie and a sense of togetherness, where they will fight for the team to the last.

Manchester City played just Wednesday in Europe in the Champions League, whereas West Ham have had time to prepare for this match without European distraction.

With these points in mind, a split-trade recommendation is made:

Match Odds

Laying ‘Manchester City’ at 1.25 makes decent appeal. Predictology are also backing West Ham to win outright as high-value at 12.46.

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a Lay position on ‘Manchester City’ at 1.25 before the start for 2 points. Therefore, if your normal stake at 1 point is £10 to back, then lay at £80 for 2 points  (total cost equals £20).

BTTS – Entry Point

Backing ‘Yes’ at 2.32 makes decent appeal. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.09.

Entry Point

It is advised to take a back position on ‘BTTS YES’ at 2.32 before the start for 2 points. 



Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester City score first, the two trades will almost balance each other out, therefore keep them open – remember, Manchester City’s price will not fall so much, even on scoring a goal, but the both teams to score market should fall slightly in price

(b) If West Ham score first, both trades should be closed for a decent profit

(c) If there are no goals in the first half, the BTTS trade will be negative, but the lay trade on Manchester City will be more positive. Therefore,

–  Leave both open on the expectation of goals from both sides (remember, the trade is to lay Manchester City to not win)

– Close both trades for a profit

 

League: GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

Match: WERDER BREMEN v EINTRACHT FRANKFURT

Date: 26th February 2021  Time (GMT):19:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Werder Bremen have won in their last 5 matches against Eintracht Frankfurt (all competitions)

– Werder Bremen have won 1 of their last 5 home matches (Bundesliga)

– Werder Bremen have scored an average of 0.9 home goals this season, whilst Eintracht Frankfurt have scored an average of  2.18 away goals (Bundesliga)

– Eintracht Frankfurt have won their last 5 matches (Bundesliga)

– Eintracht Frankfurt have won 9 of their last 10 matches (Bundesliga)

– Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams to score in 7 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, where a 1-1 draw played out (Bundesliga)

– Prior to this in the previous 4, Werder Bremen have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 2, and there has been 2 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Werder Bremen (all competitions)

– Werder Bremen’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Werder Bremen’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Werder Bremen’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Werder Bremen’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Werder Bremen have scored an average of 0.9 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.30 (Bundesliga)

 

Eintracht Frankfurt (all competitions)

– Eintracht Frankfurt’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Eintracht Frankfurt’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Eintracht Frankfurt’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Eintracht Frankfurt’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Eintracht Frankfurt have scored an average of 2.18 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.64 (Bundesliga)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Eintracht Frankfurt go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.87, whereas Werder Bremen are 4.7, with the draw at 3.95.

Eintracht Frankfurt are currently 4th in Bundesliga and coming in to this match after beating Bayern Munich last weekend 2-1. Conversely, Werder Bremen are currently 12th, and have won just once in their last 5 Bundesliga home games.

Looking at other markets. over 2.5 goals market appeals at 1.98, as does both teams to score ‘Yes’ at 1.89. However, although Frankfurt’s matches normally have goals (4 of their last 5 away have seen over 3.5), Werder Bremen have scored just one goal in their last 3 Bundesliga matches.

On current form, the best trade to take here looks to be backing Eintracht Frankfurt in the match odds market.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Eintracht Frankfurt’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.87.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Eintracht Frankfurt’ at 1.8+ before the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Eintracht Frankfurt score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Eintracht Frankfurt maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Werder Bremen score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Eintracht Frankfurt equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Werder Bremen score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Eintracht Frankfurt equalizing and coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half (unlikely), this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Eintracht Frankfurt scoring in the second-half

 

 

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE (UEL)

Match: ARSENAL v BENFICA

Date: 25th February 2021  Time (GMT):17:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– When these sides met in the first leg of this tie last week, a 1-1 draw played out, with Benfica scoring from a penalty (UEL)

– Arsenal have won 6 of their last 7 matches (UEL)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have conceded the third lowest number of goals in the Premier League – only Manchester City and Chelsea have conceded less

– Benfica have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches (UEL)

– Benfica have won just once in their last 5 away games (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– When these sides met in the first leg of this tie last week, a 1-1 draw played out, with Benfica scoring from a penalty (UEL)

– Prior to this, Arsenal have won 2 and Benfica 1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.23 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.08 (Premier League)

 

Benfica (all competitions)

– Benfica’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L1

– Benfica’s latest away match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In Benfica’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Benfica’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Benfica have scored an average of 1.5 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.9 (Primeira League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.85, whereas Benfica are 4.6, with the draw at 4.

The first-leg of these ties are normally more cagey affairs, because the home team doesn’t want to concede. Now, with the score at 1-1 Benfica simply must score, else they go out because of the away goal rule. This means that Benfica cannot just sit back for 90 minutes. As stated, Arsenal are third in the Premier League in terms of lowest goals conceded.  They also showed what happens when teams come out against them, with their recent 4-2 victory against Leeds United.

With this in mind the over 2.5 goals market appeals at 1.91. However, the slightly safer and also high value alternative is the match odds market on an Arsenal win, currently trading at 1.85 to back.

Yes, this is the same trade that was done on 18th February where Benfica were awarded a dubious penalty, but it now looks like Arsenal will make amends and win outright to progress in this competition.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Arsenal’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.85.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Arsenal’ at 1.8+ before the start for 4 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Arsenal score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Arsenal maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Benfica score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Arsenal equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Benfica score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half (unlikely), this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Arsenal scoring in the second-half

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: BORUSSIA M’GLADBACH v MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 24th February 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Borussia Monchengladbach have lost their last 2 home matches (Bundesliga)

– Borussia Monchengladbach have registered under 0.66 expected goals in their last 4 matches (Bundesliga).

– Manchester City have conceded the lowest number of goals so far in the Premier League (15)

– Manchester City have kept 5 consecutive clean sheets (UEFA Champions League)

– Manchester City have not conceded in 10 of their last 14 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played was in November 2016, where a 1-1 draw occurred (UCL)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Borussia M’Gladbach (all competitions)

– M’Gladbach’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– M’Gladbach’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In M’Gladbach’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In M’Gladbach’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– M’Gladbach have scored an average of 1.67 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.25 (Bundesliga)

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Manchester City’slatest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Manchester City’slast 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester City’slast 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 1.92 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.62 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as big favourites, currently priced at 1.33, whereas M’Gladbach are 10.5, with the draw at 6.2.

Manchester City have the tightest defence so far in the Premier League. Just last weekend, Arsenal were unable to score whilst Manchester City maintained possession. I am tempted by the goals under 2.5 market at 2.68, although the risk is if City get an early goal and then follow-up with two more. From this point of view, it does not look like M’Gladbach are likely to score against this solid City unit.

Therefore, the BTTS (both teams to score) ‘No’ market makes decent appeal at 2 (evens).

BTTS

Backing ‘No’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 2. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as high-value.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.9+ before the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of both teams not scoring in the second-half

(b) If Manchester City score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as slightly positive / flat, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of M’Gladbach not scoring

(c) If M’Gladbach score first in the first-half, then:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Leave open on the expectation that Manchester City don’t score in the second-half

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: ATLETICO MADRID v CHELSEA

Date: 23rd February 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides played was in December 2017, where a 1-1 draw occurred at in Madrid (UCL)

– Atletico Madrid are undefeated in 7 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Atletico Madrid have conceded in 9 of their last 10 matche (all competitions)

– Atletico Madrid have drawn 3 of their last 4 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Chelsea are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have won 5 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played was in December 2017, where a 1-1 draw occurred at in Madrid (UCL)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Chelsea win 1, Atletico Madrid 2, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Atletico Madrid (all competitions)

– Atletico Madrid’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Atletico Madrid’s latest home match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Atletico Madrid’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Atletico Madrid’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Atletico Madrid have scored an average of 2.17 home goals this season, whilst conceding 0.58 (La Liga)

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.08 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Atletico go in to this match as slight favourites, currently priced at 2.86, whereas Chelsea are 3, with the draw at 3.1.

At this moment, it is expected Luis Suarez will be starting for Atletico Madrid. He is currently on 16 goals for Atletico and their top goal-scorer. Given his time at Liverpool, he will be relishing the opportunity to score again against the Blues. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s top goal-scorer is Tammy Abraham on 6 goals.

Watching Chelsea play Southampton at the weekend, they disappointed, were uncreative and couldn’t score from open play – with their only goal coming from a penalty.

It is unlikely and unexpected if this Chelsea side can beat the current top-placed La Liga team, well known for their strong defensive record. On top of this, Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone has been at the club now for a number of years and knows his team inside out.  The same can not be said for the new Chelsea manager, Tuchel whom does not have the same understanding of his players.

From this point of view, it is favourable to back Atletico in the match odds market at a good value price of 2.86.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Atletico Madrid’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 2.86.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Atletico Madrid’ at 2.86+ before the start for 4 points.

It is possible you may get better odds nearer the start of kick-off, with many fans backing Chelsea to win this match.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Atletico score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Atletico maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Chelsea score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Atletico equalizing and coming back

 

 

(bii) If Chelsea score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Atletico scoring in the second-half and maintaining their lead

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION v CRYSTAL PALACE

Date: 22nd February 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides played was in October last year, where a 1-1 draw occurred at Selhurst Park (Premier League)

– Brighton are undefeated in 7 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Brighton have not conceded a goal in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 7 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 4 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace are set to be without their top-scorer (Zaha, 9 goals) again for this match

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides played was in October last year, where a 1-1 draw occurred at Selhurst Park (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Brighton win 2, Crystal Palace 1, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Brighton (all competitions)

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Brighton’s latest home match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred zero times

– Brighton’s have scored an average of 0.92 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.25 (Premier League)

 

Crystal Palace (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Crystal Palace’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.08 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.75 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Brighton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.8, whereas Crystal Palace are 6, with the draw at 3.55.

I don’t expect this to be a high-scoring match, given that Brighton have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches, and the fact that Zaha is absent for Crystal Palace. Looking at the under 2.5 goals market, to back is currently 1.7.

There is no reason to overthink things when something looks so obvious from the stats. You have one team going places and looking up; another looking down towards the relegation zone.  The xG (expected goals) analysis also has Brighton on 1.62, with Crystal Palace on a poor 0.61. Therefore, backing Brighton in the match odds market makes most appeal at a decent price of 1.8

Match Odds

Backing ‘Brighton’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.8.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Brighton’ at 1.76+ before the start for 4.5 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Brighton score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Brighton maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Crystal Palace score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Brighton equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Crystal Palace score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Brighton scoring in the second-half and maintaining their lead

 

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Date: 21st February 2021   Time (GMT):12:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, which ended in 3-3 at Tottenham (Premier League)

– West Ham have won 6 of their last 8 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen both teams scoring in 2 of their last 3 matches against Tottenham (Premier League)

– Tottenham have lost 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Tottenham have conceded in 9 of their last 10 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these two sides met was in October last year, where they drew 3-3 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen West Ham win 1, and Tottenham win 3

– 3 of the last 5 matches between these sides have seen goals over 3.5

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham’s have scored an average of 1.58 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.17 (Premier League)

 

Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Tottenham’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.73 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.09 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.64, whereas West Ham are 2.96, with the draw at 3.45.

This price on West Ham appeals, although I will watch how the match opens first, since Tottenham have an early average first goal time (28 minutes). The xG rating is also showing that West Ham are 1.38, whereas Tottenham are 0.94.

Looking at other markets for value, over 2.5 goals appeals the most at a decent 1.97. Considering that West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, as have Tottenham in away games, and that 3 of their last 5 meetings have seen over 3.5 goals, then this looks like a decent value trade.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Overs’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.99. Predictology are also highlighting over 3.5 goals as high-value at 3.42.


 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 1.9+ before the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: SOUTHAMPTON v CHELSEA

Date: 20th February 2021  Time (GMT):12:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in October last year, where they drew 3-3 (Premier League)

– Southampton have lost their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have conceded 18 goals in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have won their last 5 away matches against Southampton (Premier League)

– Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches against Southampton (all competitions)

– Chelsea have scored in 4 of their last 5 away (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these two sides met was in October last year, where they drew 3-3 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Southampton win 1, Chelsea win 2, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Southampton (all competitions)

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Southampton’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.33 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.25 (Premier League)

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.42 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.08 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.8, whereas Southampton are 5.1, with the draw at 3.95.

Looking at other markets for value, over 2.5 goals appeals the most at a decent 1.88. As much as I like the price, Chelsea have seen under 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches. The only one with over, being against Sheffield United which involved an own goal and a penalty.

The safer play here, then looks to be the straight Chelsea back at a decent price of 1.8.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Chelsea’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.8.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 1.75+ before the start for 4.5 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Chelsea score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Chelsea maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Southampton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Chelsea equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Southampton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Chelsea scoring in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v LEEDS UNITED

Date: 19th February 2021 Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Wolves have won the previous 4 meetings between these sides (all competitions)

– Wolves have won 1 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Leeds have won 2 of their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have conceded the third highest number of goals in the Premier League this season (42)

– Leeds have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 7 away matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have scored 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 away games (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

The last time these two sides met was in October last year, where Wolves won 0-1 away (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Leeds win 1 and Wolves win 3

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Wolves (all competitions)

– Wolves latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Wolves latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Wolves last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Wolves last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Wolves have scored an average of 1.17 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.17 (Premier League)

 

Leeds United (all competitions)

– Leeds latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Leeds latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Leeds last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Leeds last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Leeds have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.17 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Wolves go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.46, whereas Leeds are 3.2, with the draw at 3.45.

This should be an entertaining match, although it is difficult to call an outright winner. However, with Wolves top-scorers Neto and Neves expected to start, and with Bamford and Harrison for Leeds, goals should be expected. BTTS ‘Yes’ is currently trading at 1.78 to back, whilst over 2.5 goals is hovering around 2.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Overs’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 2. Predictology is also highlighting this selection as good-value at 1.9.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 1.9+ before the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: BENFICA  v ARSENAL

Date:18th February 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in July 2017, where Arsenal won 5-2 (Emirates Cup)

– Benfica have seen over 3.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Benfica have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have won their last 6 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Arsenal have won by 2 goals or more in their last 5 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 6 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Arsenal have conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

The last time these two sides met was in July 2017, where Arsenal won 5-2 (Emirates Cup)

– Prior to this, the last 2 matches have seen Benfica win 1 and Arsenal win 1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Benfica (all competitions)

– Benfica’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Benfica’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Benfica’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Benfica’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Benfica have scored an average of 1.8 home goals this season, whilst conceding 0.8 (Primeira League)

 

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Arsenal’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Arsenal have scored an average of 3 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 2.36, whereas Benfica are 3.25, with the draw at 3.7.

This is basically a non-home match for both sides, considering they are playing in Rome, Italy (due to Covid-19 restrictions). Arsenal at the weekend brushed Leeds United aside winning 4-2, with Aubameyang scoring a hat-trick. This is after him coming back after being out due to personal family circumstances. I believe that we will see another good performance from the Arsenal striker and captain, and he will see the team to victory.

Arsenal should have too much for a Portuguese side just 4th in their division. They also have the disadvantage of not actually playing at home here.

I expect Arsenal to win 3-1, and the Portuguese side to leave Rome with no fond memories.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Arsenal’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.36.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Arsenal’ at 2.3+ before the start for 4 points.

 

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Arsenal score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Arsenal maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

 

(bi) If Benfica score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Arsenal equalizing and coming back

 

 

(bii) If Benfica score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half (unlikely), this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Arsenal scoring in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: EVERTON v MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 17th February 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January last year, where Manchester City won 2-1 (Premier League)

– Everton have lost their last 2 home matches (Premier League)

– Everton have scored just 1 goal (total) in their last 3 home matches (Premier League)

– Everton have lost their last 5 matches against Man City (Premier League)

– Man City have won their last 16 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have conceded just 1 goal in their last 8 matches (Premier League)

– Manchester City have conceded the least goals in the Premier League (14)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January last year, where Manchester City won 2-1 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Manchester City win all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Everton have scored an average of 1.45 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.55 (Premier League)

 

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 1.91 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.64 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City unexpectedly go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.36, whereas Everton are 10, with the draw at 5.9.

It’s difficult to see how Everton will score against Manchester City without Calvert-Lewin on the pitch.

Manchester City have also been extremely good defensively over the last two months and havnt’t allowed a goal to a team outside the top five sides, and lead the table in lowest goals conceded. In fact, based on expected goals, Manchester City created 36.09 xGF and only allowed its opponents to create 6.19 expected goals.

Therefore, BTTS ‘No’ looks the value trade in this fixture at 1.86.

BTTS

Backing ‘No’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 1.86. Looking at the charts, it appears this price will drop prior to kick-off, and so this is sent out early to enable the best price to be taken.

 

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.82+ before the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of Everton not scoring in the second-half (it is expected Manchester City will score)

(b) If Manchester City score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing as slightly positive / flat, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Everton not scoring

(c) If Everton score first in the first-half, then:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: BARCELONA v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN (PSG)

Date: 16th February 2021 Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was is March 2017, where Barcelona won 6-1 (UCL)

– Barcelona haven’t lost in 17 of their last 18 matches (all competitions)

– Barcelona have seen over 3.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Barcelona have seen over 3.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches against PSG (UCL)

– PSG have seen over 3.5 goals in their last 2 matches (UCL)

– PSG have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 4 matches (UCL)

– PSG’s top-scorer in the Champions League, Neymar (on 6 goals), is unavailable for this match due to injury

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in March 2017, where Barcelona won 6-1 (UCL)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Barcelona win 3 and PSG win 1 (UCL)

– In 4 of their last 5 meetings, the total goals has been over 3.5 (UCL)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Barcelona (all competitions)

– Barcelona’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Barcelona’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Barcelona’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Barcelona’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Barcelona have scored an average of 2.55 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.09 (La Liga)

 

PSG (all competitions)

– PSG’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– PSG’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In PSG’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In PSG’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– PSG have scored an average of 1.92 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.75 (Ligue 1)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Barcelona go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 2.06, whereas PSG are 3.65, with the draw at 4.

Looking at other markets for potential value, backing Both Teams To Score (BTTS) ‘Yes’ is just 1.57, and over 2.5 goals is 1.63 – as much as I expect goals in this match, both of these market prices are not decent enough for a trade recommendation price.

Considering that PSG’s top-scorer in the Champions League, Neymar is not playing, combined with their top assist maker (Di Maria) also ruled out, this game certainly favours Barcelona who are on an upswing in results. Neymar and Di Maria have combined for 10 goals and 11 assists in Ligue 1 this year and have a combined 1.19 xG per 90-minute rate. With these two being out, it will have a major effect on the PSG performance.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Barcelona’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.06.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Barcelona’ at 2+ before the start for 4 points. It appears that their price is already starting to drop, hence why this is being sent out earlier than normal.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Barcelona score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Barcelona maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If PSG score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Barcelona equalizing and coming back

(bii) If PSG score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half (unlikely), this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Barcelona scoring in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA v NEWCASTLE UNITED

Date: 15th February 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last 3 times these sides have met, has resulted in under 2.5 goals and BTTS ‘No’ (Premier League)

– Chelsea have scored 1 goal or less in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have seen under 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 12 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where Chelsea won 0-2 away (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Newcastle win 1 and Chelsea win 3

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.91 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

 

Newcastle United (all competitions)

– Newcastle United’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Newcastle United’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Newcastle United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has 3 times

– In Newcastle United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Newcastle United have scored an average of 0.91 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.55 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea unexpectedly go in to this match as huge favourites, currently priced at just 1.26, whereas Newcastle are 14, with the draw at 7.2.

Considering that Newcastle’s top-scorer Wilson is not playing, combined with Chelsea’s new defensive mind-set, it does appear that Newcastle are unlikely to score here.

Looking at the markets for potential value, backing Both Teams To Score (BTTS) ‘No’ is just 1.67, which is not a decent trade recommendation price.

Considering that Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and Newcastle have a habit of not scoring, the under 2.5 market makes decent appeal at 2.4. This is further backed up by the fact that Newcastle have conceded more than 2 goals just once in their last 11 Premier League matches.

 

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Under’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.4.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Unders’ at 2.34+ before the start for 4 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST BROMWICH ALBION v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 14th February 2021  Time (GMT):14:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In the last 5 meetings between these sides, both teams to score has occurred just once (Premier League)

– West Brom have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– West Brom have lost 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– West Brom have conceded 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have won 12 of their last 15 away matches (Premier League)

– Man United have not conceded in 3 of their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where Manchester United won 1-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen West Brom win 1, Manchester United 2, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Bromwich Albion (all competitions)

– West Brom’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– West Brom’s latest home match record reads W0 D1 L4

– In West Brom’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In West Brom’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– West Brom have scored an average of 0.64 home goals this season, whilst conceding 2.82 (Premier League)

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 2.08 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.09 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United unexpectedly go in to this match as huge favourites, currently priced at just 1.33, whereas West Brom are 11, with the draw at 6.

Looking at other markets for potential value, backing over 2.5 goals is currently trading at 1.6, which still is not appealing, considering Manchester United have seen under this total in 3 of their last 5 away matches. More appealing, and currently at a better price is the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market, favouring ‘No’ at 1.93 (just earlier it was 1.97).

Considering that West Brom haven’t scored in 4 of their last 5 home games, and have the lowest average xG at 0.71 per match, it really doesn’t look likely they will be doing so against a title chasing Manchester United.

 

BTTS

Backing ‘No’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 1.93. Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 1.9.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.84+ before the start for 4 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of West Brom not scoring in the second-half (it is expected Manchester United will score)

 

(b) If Manchester United score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing as flat, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of West Brom not scoring

 

(c) If West Brom score first in the first-half, then:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LEICESTER CITY v LIVERPOOL

Date: 13th February 2021  Time (GMT):12:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In their last 5 meetings, Leicester have not won against Liverpool (Premier League)

– Leicester have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have won 2 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have won their last 2 away games 1-3 (Premier League)

– Liverpool have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where Liverpool won 3-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Liverpool win 3, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Leicester’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Leicester have scored an average of 1.45 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.36 (Premier League)

 

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Liverpool have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.36 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.16, whereas Leicester are 3.7, with the draw also 3.7.

Given that Leicester have won just 2 of their last 5 home matches in the Premier League, combined with Liverpool’s latest 1-3 away wins against decent opposition (Tottenham and West Ham), another away win looks most likely here for the defending Champions.

Add to that the fact that Leicester played midweek in the FA Cup, whilst Liverpool have been rested since their match last Sunday, and it makes an even more compelling case for Liverpool to take the 3 points here, at a high-value price.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Liverpool’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.16. Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 2.12.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Liverpool’ at 2.12+ before the start for 4 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Liverpool score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Liverpool maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Leicester score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Liverpool equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Leicester score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Liverpool scoring 2 goals (Liverpool have scored over 43% of their goals after the 60 minute mark)

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Liverpool scoring and maintaining the lead in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v SOUTHAMPTON

Date: 11th February 2021  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met ended in a 1-1 draw in November last year (Premier League)

– Wolves are undefeated in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Wolves have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 games (all competitions)

– Wolves are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Southampton (all competitions)

– Southampton have lost their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton haven’t won away in their last 5 attempts (Premier League)

– Southampton have conceded 16 goals in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where a 1-1 draw played out (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Wolves win 2, Southampton 1, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Wolves (all competitions)

– Wolves latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Wolves latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Wolves last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Wolves last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Wolves have scored an average of 1.17 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.17 (Premier League)

 

Southampton (all competitions)

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Southampton’s latest away match record reads W0 D1 L4

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.27 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.18 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Wolves go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.48, whereas Southampton are 3.3, with the draw 3.4.

Southampton have been poor of late, not winning in there last 5 away games. Wolves however seem to be improving slightly, with their last game a draw with Leicester and before that beating Arsenal.

Although this looks to be a low-scoring match, the back price on under 2.5 doesn’t appeal at just 1.74. Instead, the match odds market of backing Wolves is trading at a decent price of 2.48.

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Wolves’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 2.48.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Wolves’ at 2.44+ before the start for 4 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Wolves score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Wolves maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Southampton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Wolves equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Southampton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Wolves scoring 2 goals (Wolves have scored over 26% of their goals after the 75 minute mark)

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Wolves scoring and maintaining the lead in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: EVERTON v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Date: 10th February 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In the last 3 meetings between these sides, there have been under 2.5 goals (Premier League)

– Everton have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Everton have conceded the 7th least goals in the Premier League (28)

– Tottenham are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have won 7 of their last 9 matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September last year, where Everton won 0-1 away (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Tottenham win 2, and there has been 2 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Everton have scored an average of 1.6 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5 (Premier League)

 

Tottenham Hotspur (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Tottenham’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L2

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.9 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.9 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Everton go in to this match as slight favourites, currently priced at 2.74, whereas Tottenham are 2.9, with the draw 3.35.

Looking at other markets, the both teams to score market ‘Yes’ offers 1.9. Over 2.5 goals market is trading at 2.16.

At this time, it is not certain what the starting line-ups are for each side. This obviously has a big impact on the trade recommendation. It is assumed at this point that Kane and Son will not be starting for Tottenham, therefore both their top-scorers and assist makers are to be missing.

If this is to be the case and until further notice, the trade recommendation will be for a low-scoring match. A further update will be made if anything changes from the above view-point on release of team news.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.8.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 2.5’ at 1.78+ before the start for 3 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League:ENGLISH FA CUPMatch:MANCHESTER UNITED v WEST HAM UNITEDDate:9th February 2021Time (GMT):19:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In 4 of the last 5 meetings between these sides, both teams have scored (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have won 7 of their last 9 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where Manchester United won 1-3 away (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Manchester United win 1, West Ham 2, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 2.08 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5 (Premier League)

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.5 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.17 (Premier League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.72, whereas West Ham are 5.3, with the draw 4.3.

Looking at other markets, the both teams to score market ‘Yes’ offers 1.75. Over 2.5 goals market is trading at 1.72 (from a previous low of 1.56)

Antonio looks like being rested for West Ham, and new loan-signing Lingard is unavailable to play against his parent club. Whilst Manchester United are favourites, their recent home form of W1 D1 L1 doesn’t inspire confidence at this price.

As this competition progresses, it should be noted that teams are more likely to not be as free-flowing, and will play a cagier, more chess-like game in order not to avoid conceding, especially early on.

It is noted that Fernandes has scored 13 goals for Manchester United, but nearly half of those (6) are from penalties. West Ham have also conceded just 3 goals in their last 6 away matches, so perhaps the high-scoring game anticipated by the market isn’t on the cards for this one.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.4.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 2.5’ at 2.34+ before the start for 2 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LEEDS UNITED v CRYSTAL PALACE

Date: 8th February 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Leeds United have scored 1 goal or less in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Leeds United have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leeds United have seen over 3.5 goals in just 1 of their last 5 matchs (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace have won 1 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace have scored 2 goals (total) in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 away matches  (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where Crystal Palace won 4-1 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Leeds United win 2, and there has been 2 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Leeds United (all competitions)

– Leeds’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3

– Leeds’s latest home match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Leeds’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Leeds’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Leeds have scored an average of 1.4 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.6 (Premier League)

 

Crystal Palace (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Crystal Palace’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just twice

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.18 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.73

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leeds go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.92, whereas Crystal Palace are 4.3, with the draw 4.

Leeds however have won just 2 of their last 5 home games, and have failed to score against Arsenal, Spurs, Brighton and Wolves this season.

Fortunately for Leeds, Crystal Palace are without their main goal-scorer, Zaha (injured), that has scored the majority of Palace’s goals this season (9). Crystal Palace struggle for goals, especially away, and have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 away matches. Without Zaha, this is more of a problem, and manager Roy Hodgson will most likely revert to his most defensive of tactics, and will likely prove incredibly hard for Leeds to breakdown.

Leeds will obviously try and attack from the beginning, but their finishing is not clinical usually and most chances will be squandered. Therefore, against market expectations I am expecting a low scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent value price of 2.36 Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 2.25.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 2.5’ at 2.3+ before the start for 2 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: SHEFFIELD UNITED v CHELSEA

Date: 7th February 2021   Time (GMT):19:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Sheffield United have conceded more than 1 goal just once in their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Sheffield United have scored the joint-lowest number of goals in the Premier League (14, tied with Burnley)

– Chelsea have won 3 of their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have kept clean sheets in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in all of their last 3 matches since the new managers arrival, scoring a total of 3 goals in these matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where Chelsea won 4-1 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Sheffield United win 1, Chelsea 2, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Sheffield United (all competitions)

– Sheffield’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Sheffield’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Sheffield’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Sheffield’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Sheffield have scored an average of 0.73 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.45 (Premier League)

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.36 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.09

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.5, whereas Sheffield United are 8, with the draw 4.7.

With Sheffield United scoring the (joint) lowest goals in the league, and with Chelsea looking at tightening their game up in their last 3 matches under new management (conceding 0 goals, scoring just 3), this looks to be a low-scoring affair.

If pressed to pick a score-line, it would be Chelsea 2-0. The Betfair correct score market is also showing a preference for this, with the favourite score 0-1 at 7.2, followed by 0-2 at 7.6.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent value price of 2. Predictology and Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 1.94 and 1.85 respectively.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 2.5’ at 1.96+ before the start for 3 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: FULHAM v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 6th February 2021  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In the last 5 meetings between these sides, West Ham have won all 5 matches (all competitions)

– Fulham have scored just 1 goal (total) in their last 6 home matches (all competitions)

– Fulham have lost their last 4 home matches (all competitions)

– Fulham have scored the 3rd lowest number of goals in the league, with 17 (Premier League)

– West Ham are undefeated in 9 of their last 10 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have won 7 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have scored 1 goal or more in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where West Ham won 1-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen West Ham win all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Fulham (all competitions)

– Fulham’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– Fulham’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Fulham have scored an average of 0.64 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.55 (Premier League)

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.12, whereas Swansea are 3.9, with the draw 3.6.

In their last 5 home matches, Fulham have managed just a single goal, whereas West Ham have scored 7 in their last 3 away matches, whilst winning all 3.

In terms of xG (expected goals), Fulham are averaging 0.9, whereas West Ham are averaging 1.89.

Combined with the fact that West Ham won all the previous 5 meetings, and a West Ham win looks likely and appealing at a decent price of 2.12.

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘West Ham’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent value price of 2.12.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at 2.1+ before the start for 3.5 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Fulham score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Fulham score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham scoring 2 goals (West Ham have scored 32% of their goals between 75-90 minute mark)

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring and maintaining the lead in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

Match: SWANSEA v NORWICH

Date:5th February 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In there last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times (all competitions)

– Swansea are unbeaten in their last 9 matches (all competitions)

– Swansea have lost 1 of their 13 home matches this season (Championship)

– Swansea have seen under 2.5 goals in 23 of their last 29 matches (all competitions)

– Norwich have drawn their last 2 matches (Championship)

– Norwich have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 away matches (all competitions)

– Norwich have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 7 away matches (Championship)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where Norwich won 1-0 (Championship)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Norwich win 3, and Swansea 1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Swansea (all competitions)

– Swansea’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Swansea’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Swansea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Swansea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Swansea have scored an average of 1.23 home goals this season, whilst conceding 0.46 (Championship)

 

Norwich (all competitions)

– Norwich’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Norwich’s latest away match record reads W1 D2 L1

– In Norwich’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Norwich’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Norwich have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Trading Markets Considered

Norwich go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.74, whereas Swansea are 3. with the draw 3.3.

In their last 3 matches, Norwich have not scored a goal, whereas Swansea have scored in their last 5, whilst also not losing.

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Swansea’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 3. Predictology and Infogol are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.86 and 2.8, respectively.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Swansea’ at 2.9+ before the start for 3 points, combined with a hedge trade detailed below.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Swansea score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Swansea maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Norwich score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Swansea equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Norwich score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Swansea scoring and maintaining the lead in the second-half

 

Hedge Trade

The most probable score-line that would prevent this trade is 1-1. Therefore, it is advised to take a back position in the correct score market as follows:

Back 1-1 @ 7 (0.5 point would cover any loss on the main trade)

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v CHELSEA

Date: 4th February 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides played, it ended in a 0-0 draw (Nov. 2020, Premier League)

– Tottenham have drawn their last 2 matches against Chelsea (all competitions)

– Tottenham have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches against Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea have scored no more than 1 goal in their last 5 away games (Premier League)

– Chelsea have won 1 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, which ended in a 0-0 draw (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Chelsea win 3, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Tottenham’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.5 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.2 (Premier League)

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Chelsea have scored an average of 1.4 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.2

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.18, whereas Tottenham are 3.8, with the draw 3.55.

With 4 of Chelsea’s last 5 games having under 2.5 goals, and with Tottenham missing Harry Kane (their top goal-scorer), it appears this could be a low-scoring affair.

However, the price on under 2.5 is currently 1.89, whilst the favourable back on Chelsea is 2.18. This makes a more appealing potential return, considering Tottenham have lost their last 2 matches, and Chelsea will be feeling the effects of the ‘new manager bounce’. It should also be noted that Tottenham have not beaten Chelsea in their last 6 meetings.

 

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Chelsea’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.18. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.1.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Chelsea’ at 2.1+ before the start for 3 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Chelsea score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Leicester maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Tottenham score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Chelsea equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Tottenham score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Chelsea scoring and maintaining the lead in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: FULHAM v LEICESTER CITY

Date: 3rd February 2021 Time (GMT):18:00

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– 4 of the last 5 meetings between these sides have seen goals over 2.5 (all competitions)

– Fulham have drawn 8 of their last 11 matches (all competitions)

– Fulham have seen both teams scoring in their last 7 matches against Leicester (all competitions)

– Fulham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have seen both teams scoring in their last 3 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester will be without their top-scorer Jamie Vardy, however James Maddison has scored 4 goals in his last 6 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, which ended in a 1-2 away victory for Fulham (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Fulham win 1, Leicester 2, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Fulham (all competitions)

– Fulham’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Fulham’s latest home match record reads W0 D2 L3

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Fulham have scored an average of 0.7 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5 (Premier League)

 

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Leicester’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Leicester have scored an average of 2.1 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.0

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leicester go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1, whereas Fulham are 4.1, with the draw 3.5.

Leicester are currently ranked 4th highest in the league for goals scored, and interestingly score more goals away from home (2.1 against 1.45), whilst also conceding fewer (1 against 1.36). Although they will be without Jamie Vardy for this match, James Maddison has scored 4 goals in his last 6 matches, and Harvey Barnes has scored 7 goals so far.

Considering that Fulham have scored just 1 goal (total) in their last 5 home matches, it would appear that Leicester should have enough to edge this, and will be keen to bounce back from their recent 1-3 home defeat against Leeds.

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Leicester’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.1 (if Vardy were playing, then this price would be much lower). Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.01.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Leicester’ at 2.06+ before the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Leicester score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Leicester maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Fulham score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Leicester equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Fulham score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Leicester scoring and maintaining the lead in the second-half

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v ARSENAL

Date:2nd February 2021  Time (GMT):18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Wolves haven’t won in their last 8 matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have lost their last 2 home matches (Premier League)

– Wolves haven’t scored in their last 2 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won 5 of their last 7 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal haven’t conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, which ended in a 1-2 away victory for Wolves(Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Wolves win 1, Arsenal 1, and there has been 2 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Wolves (all competitions)

– Wolves latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Wolves latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Wolves last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Wolves last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Wolves have scored an average of 1.2 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.3 (Premier League)

 

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Arsenal’s latest away match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.4 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.9

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.28, whereas Wolves are 3.65, with the draw 3.4.

Wolves last 3 matches have seen under 1.5 goals. 2 of Arsenal’s last 3 matches were also under this number. Whilst I’m expecting a low scoring match, the price of under 2.5 at 1.69 doesn’t appeal, considering that Arsenal appear to be getting back to business as usual. It should also be noted that Arsenal currently have the second tightest defence in the league (behind Manchester City).

With this in mind, the price on Arsenal in the match odds market makes most appeal at decent price of 2.28.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Arsenal’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.28. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.24.


 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Arsenal’ at 2.2+ before the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Arsenal score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Arsenal maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Wolves score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Arsenal equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Wolves score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Arsenal scoring and maintaining the lead in the second-half

 

MONDAY 1st FEBRUARY, 2021

NO TRADE DAY

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v LIVERPOOL

Date: 31st January 2021  Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, which ended in a 2-1 home victory for Liverpool (Premier League)

– West Ham have won their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have conceded 3 goals (total) in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have won once in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October last year, which ended in a 2-1 home victory for Liverpool (Premier League)

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Liverpool win 3, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.5 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.1 (Premier League)

 

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L1

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1.9 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.4

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.82, whereas West Ham are 4.6, with the draw 4.2.

 

Aside from Liverpool’s last match (win against Tottenham), in their previous 3 Premier League matches they have scored zero goals. West Ham have also conceded just a single goal (total) in their last 3 home matches.

 

Combined with the closeness of the teams league positions, this is likely to be a tighter, cagier affair than anticipated by the markets.  The under 2.5 goals market therefore makes good appeal at a value 2.5.

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘unders’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.5.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 2.46+ before the start for 2 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: ARSENAL v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 30th January 2021   Time (GMT):17:30

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Arsenal are undefeated in their last 5 meetings between these sides (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have not conceded clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal are undefeated in their last 5 meetings between these sides (Premier League)

– Manchester United have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have recorded the second highest number of shots on target in the Premier League so far this season (114)

– Manchester United have recorded the second highest number of goals in the Premier League so far this season (37)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where Arsenal won 0-1 away

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Arsenal win 2, Manchester United 1 and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.2 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.1 (Premier League)

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 2.4 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.2

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.5, whereas Arsenal are 3.1, with the draw 3.55.

These teams go in to this match with contrasting fortunes in their last Premier League matches, where Arsenal beat Southampton 3-1 away, and Manchester United lost 1-2 at home to bottom side Sheffield United.

It does appear that Arsenal have found their goal-scoring form again, and Manchester United are the second highest goal scorers in the league so far.

Although matches like this can be tight, cagey affairs, this one however appears that it will be more open and therefore have goals.

Whilst also expecting both teams to score (back price 1.7), the over 2.5 goals market makes more appeal at 1.87.

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Overs’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.87. Predictology are also highlighting over 3.5 goals as a high-value selection at 2.95.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Overs’ at 1.84+ before the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– If both sides are creating decent chances, leave open on the expectation of goals in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a good profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

Friday 29th January – No Trade Day

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: TOTTENHAM v LIVERPOOL

Date: 28th January 2021 Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Tottenham have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have not lost in their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have drawn 2 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have won 1 of their last 7 matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals scored in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where Liverpool won 2-1

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Liverpool win all meetings

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Tottenham’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.56 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

 

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1.78 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.44

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.22, whereas Tottenham are 3.45, with the draw 3.75.

Although Liverpool have had a slight goal drought of late, they did put 2 past Manchester United in the FA Cup at the weekend (whilst losing 3-2). Tottenham have also scored 8 goals in their last 3 games.

 

Whilst also expecting both teams to score (back price 1.67), the over 2.5 goals market makes more appeal at 1.79.

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Overs’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.79. Predictology are also highlighting over 3.5 goals as a high-value selection at 2.84.

 

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Overs’ at 1.74+ before the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a good profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE Match: BURNLEY v ASTON VILLA
Date: 27th January 2021 Time (GMT): 18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met in December last year, a 0-0 played out (Premier League)

– Burnley have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Burnley have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Aston Villa have scored 2 goals (total) in their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have not conceded in all 5 of their away wins (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have won 4 of their last 8 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where a 0-0 draw played out

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Burnley win 1, Aston Villa 1, and there have been 2 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Burnley (all competitions)

– Burnley’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Burnley’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Burnley’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Burnley’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Burnley have scored an average of 0.62 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1 (Premier League)

 

Aston Villa (all competitions)

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.56 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.78

 

Trading Markets Considered

Aston Villa go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2, whereas Burnley are 4.1, with the draw also 3.8.

Aston Villa have the 3rd tightest defence in the league, shipping just 18 goals so far this season. Burnley are placed 7th, having shipped 22, but have also scored the fewest (10).

This has the makings of another low-scoring affair, so the under 2.5 goals market is favoured.

Goals Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 2.08. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 1.99.

 

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Unders’ at 2+ before the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CRYSTAL PALACE v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 26th January 2021  Time (GMT):18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Crystal Palace have won just 1 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 2 of their last 3 matches (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace have failed to score in their last 3 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have won their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have not conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in December last year, where a 1-1 draw played out

– Prior to this, the last 4 matches have seen Crystal Palace win 2, West Ham 1, and there have been 2 draws

– 3 of their last 6 meetings have ended in a 1-1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Crystal Palace (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Crystal Palace’s latest home match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.22 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.67 (Premier League)

 

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– West Ham’s have scored an average of 1.33 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.22

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.44, whereas Crystal Palace are 3.35, with the draw also 3.35.

West Ham have definitely benefited from Manager, David Moyes and his defensive discipline. In fact, West Ham have conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 matches. Although Crystal Palace are often hard for teams to break-down, they have still conceded 6 goals in their last 5 matches.

Crystal Palace historically have a better home form then away, partly due to the raucous support at Selhurst Park. However, without that combined with Antonio now fully back in the team, a West Ham win to move them up to a possible 4th spot looks the best call here.

Match Odds

Backing ‘West Ham’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 2.44. A small defensive hedge in the correct score market is also favoured, as detailed below.

 

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at 2.4+ before the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Crystal Palace score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Crystal Palace score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, whilst leaving the hedge trade open

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring in the second-half

Hedge Trade

The most probable score-line that would prevent this trade is 1-1. Therefore, it is advised to take a back position in the correct score market as follows:

Back 1-1 @ 7.4 (0.5 point would cover any loss on the main trade)

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: WYCOMBE WANDERERS v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Date: 25th January 2021          Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Wycombe have scored an average of just 0.7 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.17 (Championship)

– Wycombe have lost 5 of their last 7 matches (Championship)

– Wycombe have won 1 of their last 5 home matches (Championship)

– Tottenham have lost 1 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have scored an average of 2.11 away goals, whilst conceding 0.89 (Premier League)

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January 2017 in the FA Cup, where Tottenham won 4-3

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Wycombe (all competitions)

– Wycombe’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Wycombe’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Wycombe’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 5 times

– In Wycombe’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Wycombe have scored an average of 0.67 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.17 (Championship)

 

Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Tottenham’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Tottenham have scored an average of 2.11 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.89

 

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham unsurprisingly go in to this match as big favourites, currently priced at just 1.21, whereas Wycombe are 16.5, with the draw 8.6.

Looking at the latest team news, Tottenham manager Mourinho has confirmed he will be taking a strong squad to Adams Park, although it is expected that top-scorers Kane and Son will be named as substitutes.

Looking at the correct score market as an indicator, the favourite score-line with the shortest odds is ‘any other away win’, at just 3.15 (meaning the market expectation is for Tottenham to score at least 4 goals).  However, the over 2.5 goals market is trading at just 1.45 to back.

I think it is unlikely Wycombe will score against a Mourinho team this time, which makes the BTTS ‘No’ market at a decent 1.89 appealing for a trade.

 

 

 

BTTS – No

Backing ‘No’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.89.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘BTTS No’ at 1.8+ before the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of Wycombe not scoring (it is expected Tottenham will eventually score)

 

(b) If Tottenham score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing as flat/slightly positive, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Wycombe not scoring
– However, if Wycombe appear to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If Wycombe score in the first-half, this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to reduce the loss, since it is expected Tottenham will score

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: EVERTON v SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY

Date: 24th January 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Everton have won 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Everton have not conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Everton have won to nil in 3 of their last 4 matches against Sheffield Wednesday (all competitions)

– Sheffield Wednesday have seen both teams to score ‘No’, in 4 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Sheffield Wednesday have lost 6 of their last 8 away matches (Championship)

– Sheffield Wednesday have scored an average of o.55 goals in their away matches (Championship)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in 2019 in the League Cup, where Everton won 0-2 away

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Everton have scored an average of 1.88 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5 (Premier League)

 

Sheffield Wednesday (all competitions)

– Sheffield Wednesday’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Sheffield Wednesday’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Sheffield Wednesday’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Sheffield Wednesday’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Sheffield Wednesday have scored an average of 0.55 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.36

 

Trading Markets Considered

Everton unsurprisingly go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.38, whereas Sheffield Wednesday are 10.5, with the draw 5.4.

Looking at the latest team news, Everton manager Ancelotti will be avoiding an upset here by fielding a strong side for this match, including the return top goal-scorer Calvert-Lewin.

 

Looking at the correct score market as an indicator, the favourite score-line with the shortest odds is ‘any other home win’, at 5.9 (meaning the market expectation is for Everton to score at least 4 goals).  Everton are also predicted to start quickly, and have an average first time goal scored of 25 minutes (home) in the Premier League.

 

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘over’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent-value price of 1.84.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘over 2.5’ at 1.84+ before (or slightly after) the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE Match: ASTON VILLA v NEWCASTLE UNITED
Date: 23rd January 2021 Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last 5 meetings between these sides have seen under 2.5 goals (all competitions)

– Aston Villa have not conceded against in their last 4 matches against teams in the bottom half (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have conceded the third lowest number of goals in the league so far (18)

– Aston Villa won 2-0 in their last home match against Newcastle (Premier League)

– Newcastle have lost their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have not scored in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met in June last year,  where a 1-1 draw played out

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen Aston Villa win 1, Newcastle win 1 and 2 draws

– The last 5 meetings have also featured under 2.5 goals

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Aston Villa (all competitions)

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Aston Villa’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just 3 times

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.81 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.12

 

Newcastle United (all competitions)

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– Newcastle’s latest away match record reads W0 D0 L5

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 0 times

– In Newcastle’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Newcastle have scored an average of 1 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.67

 

Trading Markets Considered

Aston Villa go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.57, whereas Newcastle are 6.4, with the draw 4.7.

Considering that Newcastle haven’t scored in their last 5 away games, and that Aston Villa have one of the tightest defences in the league, we should be looking at a low-scoring match.

 

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.7. Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 2.48.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 2.5’ at 2.66+ before the start for 2 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL v BURNLEY

Date: 21st January 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have won 38 of their last 42 home matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Burnley have seen under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches (all competitions)

– Burnley have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

– Burnley have scored 1 goal in their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met in July last year,  where a 1-1 draw played out

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen Liverpool win all matches

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L1

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Liverpool have scored an average of 2.06 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.17

 

Burnley (all competitions)

– Burnley’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– Burnley’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L2

– In Burnley’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Burnley’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Burnley have scored an average of 0.44 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.56

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as huge favourites, currently priced at 1.23, whereas Burnley are 18, with the draw 7.4.

Again, this is not going to be a high scoring goal-fest that many imagine. Burnley will soak up the pressure and Liverpool will struggle against this tight defensive unit.

Personally I may trade the under 2.5 goals market, at least until half-time. BUT for a trade recommendation I would opt for the under 3.5 goals market for an easier more profitable trade.

 

Under 3.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ in this market makes most appeal at a value price of 1.7.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 3.5’ at 1.65+ before the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 4 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half, or

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a slightly negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals have been scored before the 30 minute mark, then close the trade

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER CITY v ASTON VILLA

Date: 20th January 2021    Time (GMT):18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Manchester City and Aston Villa have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League

– Manchester City have won their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City haven’t conceded in their last 4 home matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have won 10 of their last 12 home matches (all competitions)

– Aston Villa have lost 2 of their last 3 matches (all competitions)

– Aston Villa have seen under 3.5 goals in all of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have lost 8 of their last 9 matches against Manchester City (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in the League Cup in March last year, where Manchester City won 1-2 away

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen Manchester City win all matches

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester City (all competitions)

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Manchester City’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Manchester City’s ast 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 1.71 goals this season, whilst conceding 0.78

 

Aston Villa (all competitions)

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.75 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.62

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as huge favourites, currently priced at 1.29, whereas Aston villa are 12.5, with the draw 6.6. Although expecting Manchester City to win here, this price would be unreasonable and unsuitable for a trading recommendation.

Therefore, other liquid markets are looked at. With both teams having the tightest defence in the league, I would expect goals would not be so free-flowing as markets suggest. I would go for the under 2.5 goals market, but this is higher risk if Aston Villa manage to score (which I actually expect them not to). Lets not forget there will be no Aguero for City, and Aston Villa haven’t played since 1st January, so they are likely to be a bit off their game.

The price on over 2.5 goals is currently 1.53, which I will probably lay from the beginning before closing out soon after.

However, the under 3.5 goals market makes good appeal and is still priced at decent value at 1.74.

 

Under 3.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent value price of 1.74.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 3.5’ at 1.7+ before the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 4 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half, or

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a slightly negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals have been scored before the 30 minute mark, then close the trade

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v WEST BROMWICH ALBION

Date: 19th January 2021    Time (GMT):18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– West Ham have seen both teams scoring in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have drawn 2 of their last 3 home matches (Premier League)

– West Brom have drawn 2 of their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

– West Brom have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their 8 away matches (Premier League)

– West Brom have seen both teams scoring in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in the FA Cup in January last year, where West Brom won 0-1 away

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen West Ham win 1, West Brom 1, and there have been 2 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Ham United (all competitions)

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In West Ham’s last 5 home matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.44 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.11

 

West Bromwich Albion (all competitions)

– West Brom’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– West Brom’s latest away match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In West Brom’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 5 times

– In West Brom’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Brom have scored an average of 1 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.89

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.63, whereas West Brom are 6.6, with the draw 4.1. Whilst I expect West Ham to win this match, the price on offer isn’t good enough for a trade recommendation.

From analysis of both teams form, with West Ham scoring and conceding at least 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 home games, and West Brom scoring and conceding in all 5 of their last 5 away games, the Both Teams To Score ‘Yes’ market looks appealing, which is currently trading at 2.04.

BTTS

Backing ‘Yes’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent value price of 2.04. Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as good value at 1.91.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘BTTS Yes’ at 2.02+ before the start for 4 points.

 


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:
(i) A profit can be taken immediately, or
(ii) If West Brom look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

(b) If West Brom score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:
(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of West Ham scoring, or
(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open.

(d) If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize loss.

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE UNITED

Date: 18th January 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In the last 4 meetings between these sides, Newcastle have failed to score (all competitions)

– Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Arsenal have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets (all competitions)

– Arsenal have won 2 of their last 3 home matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have lost 6 of their last 8 matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was earlier this month in the FA Cup, where the sides drew 0-0 (with Arsenal winning 2-0 in Extra Time)

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen Arsenal win all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.11 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.06

 

Newcastle United (all competitions)

– Newcastle United’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– Newcastle United’s latest away match record reads W0 D0 L5

– In Newcastle United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Newcastle United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Newcastle United have scored an average of 1.06 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.59

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.45, whereas Newcastle United are 9, with the draw 4.8. Whilst I expect Arsenal to win this match (1-0 or 2-0), the low-price on offer isn’t enough for a trade recommendation.

Considering that these sides have played each other recently in the FA Cup (0-0 FT), and that Arsenal haven’t conceded in their last 4 matches, another repeat of a low-scoring match seems likely.

The BTTS ‘No’ market is currently trading at 1.79, this makes some appeal, since I don’t see Newcastle scoring in this match (apart from a penalty).

However, with 4 of Newcastle’s last 5 matches producing under 2.5 goals, the under 2.5 goals market appeals at 2.08. It should also be noted that just last month, Liverpool failed to score past Newcastle, and Manchester City managed to win at home just 2-0.

 

Under 2.5

Backing ‘unders’ in this market makes most appeal at a decent value price of 2.08.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 2.5’ at 2.06+ before the start for 3 points.

 


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL  v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date:17th January 2021Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– The last 3 meetings between these sides have seen under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring just once (Premier League)

– Liverpool have won 38 of their last 41 home matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool however, have won their last 2 home matches against Manchester United (Premier League)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have seen both teams scoring in just 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have lost just once in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January last year, where Liverpool won 2-0

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen 2 draws (0-0 and 1-1) and 2 Liverpool wins

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool (all competitions)

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Liverpool have scored an average of 2.18 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.24

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 2 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.41

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.96, whereas Manchester United are 4, with the draw also 4.

Considering that big games like this often produce tight, cagey affairs with both teams more concerned with not losing, combined with Liverpool’s recent Premier League goal draught (1 goal scored in their last 3 matches), the under 2.5 market makes most appeal.

Under 2.5

Backing ‘unders’ in this market makes most appeal at a high-value price of 2.6.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.56+ before the start for 3 points.  It is also expected that this price will begin to fall quite rapidly if no goals have been scored in the first 15 minutes of play.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LEICESTER CITY v SOUTHAMPTON

Date: 16th January 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In the last 3 meetings between these sides, there have been a total of 15 goals (Premier League)

– Leicester have won once in their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Leicester have drawn 2 of their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Leicester have seen BTTS in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have drawn 4 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January last year, where Southampton won 1-2 away

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Leicester City (all competitions)

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Leicester’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Leicester have scored an average of 1.38 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Southampton (all competitions)

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Southampton’s latest away match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Southampton’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Southampton’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.5 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.25

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leicester go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.93, whereas Southampton are 4.5, with the draw 3.8.

Considering that Southampton have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games, and Leicester have scored in 4 of their last 5 home fixtures,  BTTS ‘Yes’ makes most appeal at 1.88. Both teams also have a tendency to score fairly early (35 and 31 mins average), so hopefully this market will be closed by half-time.

BTTS

Backing ‘Yes’ in this market makes most appeal at a value price of 1.88. Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high value at 1.85.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.82+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Leicester score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:
(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or
(ii) If Southampton look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

(b) If Southampton score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:
(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Leicester scoring
(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open.

(d) If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize loss.

 

 

League: ITALIAN SERIE A

Match: LAZIO v ROMA

Date: 15th January 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Lazio have drawn their last 2 matches against Roma (Serie A)

– Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Serie A)

– Roma are unbeaten in their last 19 matches at the Stadio Olimpico (all competitions)

– Roma have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 matches (Serie A)

– Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Serie A)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January last year, where a 1-1 draw played out

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Lazio’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Lazio’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Lazio’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Lazio’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Lazio have scored an average of 1.38 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.62

 

Roma (all competitions)

– Roma’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Roma’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Roma’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Roma’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times

– Roma have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.12

 

Trading Markets Considered

Roma go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.56, whereas Lazio are 2.98, with the draw 3.6.

Considering that Roma have the better side here, the match odds on Roma appeal most, as opposed to over 2.5 goals at 1.68 and BTTS ‘Yes’ at 1.55.

Match Odds

Backing ‘Roma’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.56. Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as high value at 2.45.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Roma’ at 2.5+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Roma score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Roma maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Lazio score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Roma equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Lazio score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Roma scoring in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE Match: ARSENAL v CRYSTAL PALACE
Date: 14th January 2021 Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– In their last 5 meetings, this fixture has produced over 2.5 goals 4 times (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have lost once in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace have lost 4 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace have 2 wins in their last 9 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January last year, where a 1-1 draw played out

– Prior to this, Arsenal have won 1, Crystal Palace 1, and there have been 2 draws

– In all of these last 4 fixtures, goals have been over 3.5

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Arsenal’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.12 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.38

 

Crystal Palace (all competitions)

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Crystal Palace’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.75

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.64, whereas Crystal Palace are 6.6, with the draw 4.1.

Considering that this fixture has produced over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5, and that Arsenal seem to be back to their goal-scoring form, this market makes most appeal.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘overs’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2. Predictology are also high-lighting over 3.5 as high value at 3.29. However, the over 2.5 market carries less risk.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over 2.5’ at 1.98+ at the start for 3.5 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team have been creating many chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v FULHAM

Date:13th January 2021    Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– Tottenham have conceded the second lowest number of goals in the Premier League (15, although Manchester City in first place have played a game less)

– Tottenham have won 8 of their last 9 home matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have not conceded in 7 of their last 9 home matches (all competitions)

– Fulham have not won in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Fulham have scored the fourth lowest number of goals in the Premier League (13)

– Fulham have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January 2019, where Tottenham won 1-2 away

– Prior to this, Tottenham have won the last 4 times

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Tottenham’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Tottenham’s last 5 home matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In Tottenham’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.62 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Fulham (all competitions)

– Fulham’s latest match record reads W1 D4 L0

– Fulham’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Fulham’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Fulham’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Fulham have scored an average of 1 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.57

 

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.57, whereas Fulham are 6.8, with the draw 4.4.

Looking at the under 2.5 goals market, it is currently priced at a decent 2.16, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2.04. From analysis, we should be expecting both of these events to occur in this match.

Considering that Tottenham have conceded the second lowest number of goals scored so far, whilst Fulham score the fourth lowest leads me to consider the BTTS market as having most appeal.

 

BTTS ‘No’

Backing ‘No’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.04. Predictology are also high-lighting BTTS ‘No’ as high value at 1.92.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 2.04+ at the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of Fulham not scoring (it is expected Tottenham will eventually score)

 

(b) If Tottenham score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing as flat, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Fulham not scoring
– However, if Fulham appear to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If Fulham score first in the first-half, this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to reduce the loss, since it is expected Tottenham will score

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BURNLEY v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 12th January 2021   Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

 

– In the last 5 meetings between these sides, under 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times (Premier League)

– Burnley have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Burnley have lost their last 4 home matches against Manchester United (Premier League)

– Burnley have conceded no more than 1 goal in their last 5 home games (all competitions)

– Manchester United have won 10 of their last 11 away matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have won 3 of their last 4 matches (all competitions).

– Manchester United have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in January last year, where Burnley won 0-2 away

– Prior to this, Manchester United have won 3 times and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Burnley (all competitions)

– Burnley’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Burnley’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Burnley’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Burnley’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Burnley have scored an average of 0.71 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Manchester United have scored an average of 2.06 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.51, whereas Burnley are 7.6, with the draw 4.8.

Considering that Burnley have the second lowest number of goals scored so far this season (9), whilst also having the 4th highest number of clean sheets (6), a low scoring affair looks likely. Predictology are high-lighting a 0-2 Man United win as the most likely score-line here.

Looking at the under 2.5 goals market, it is currently priced at a decent 2.24, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2. Again, from analysis, we should be expecting both of these events to occur in this match.

However, with the under 2.5 price offering more value, this will be the basis of this trade recommendation.

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under 2.5’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.24. Infogol are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 2.2.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on Under 2.5 at 2.2+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

 

League: ITALIAN SERIE A

Match: SPEZIA v SAMPDORIA

Date: 11th January 2021     Time (GMT): 19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Spezia have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Serie A)

– Spezia have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 9 matches (all competitions)

– Spezia have lost 5 of their last 7 matches (Serie A)

– Sampdoria have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Serie A)

– Sampdoria have seen BTTS in 9 of their last 10 matches (all competitions)

– Sampdoria have lost 2 of their last 3 matches (Serie A)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in a club friendly in August 2019, where Sampdoria won 3-5 away

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Spezia

– Spezia’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Spezia’s latest home match record reads W0 D1 L4

– In Spezia’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Spezia’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Spezia have scored an average of 1.31  goals this season, whilst conceding 1.94

 

Sampdoria

– Sampdoria’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Sampdoria’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Sampdoria’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Sampdoria’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Sampdoria have scored an average of 1.56 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.62

 

Trading Markets Considered

Sampdoria go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.36, whereas Spezia are 3.45, with the draw also 3.45.

Both teams are coming in to this match off the back of big wins (against Napoli and Inter respectively), where both score-lines were 2-1.

Looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is currently priced at 1.84, with BTTS ‘Yes’ at 1.66. From analysis, we should be expecting both of these events to occur in this match.

However, with the over 2.5 price offering more value, this will be the basis of this trade recommendation.

 

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Over 2.5’ makes most appeal at a decent price of 1.84. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value at 1.82.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on Over 2.5 at 1.8+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team have been creating chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

 

League: ITALIAN SERIE A

Match: FIORENTINA v CAGLIARI

Date: 10th January 2021   Time (GMT):17:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Fiorentina have lost once in their last 5 home matches (Serie A)

– Fiorentina haven’t conceded more than 1 goal in their last 5 home matches (Serie A)

– Fiorentina have scored nearly 30% of their goals in the first 15 minutes of matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari haven’t won in their last 5 away matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari have conceded 1 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari haven’t won any of their last 6 matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari will be missing up to 8 players due to injury, suspension and Covid-19

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in July last year, where a 0-0 draw resulted

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Fiorentina

– Fiorentina’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Fiorentina’s latest home match record reads W0 D4 L1

– In Fiorentina’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Fiorentina’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Fiorentina have scored an average of 1 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Cagliari

– Cagliari’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Cagliari’s latest away match record reads W0 D2 L3

– In Cagliari’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Cagliari’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Cagliari have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.12

 

Trading Markets Considered

Fiorentina go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.8, whereas Cagliari are 5.2, with the draw 3.95.

Cagliari are notoriously bad travellers, and score more goals and concede less when at home in Sardinia. Combined with several missing key players due to suspension, injury and Covid quarantine, a Fiorentina home win here looks the value call.

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Fiorentina’ makes most appeal at a decent price of 1.8. Predictology and Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 1.78.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on Fiorentina at 1.8+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Fiorentina score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Fiorentina maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Cagliari score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Fiorentina equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Cagliari score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Fiorentina scoring in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE UNITED

Date: 9th January 2021  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– In the last 3 meetings between these sides, Newcastle have failed to score (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won their last 3 matches, and conceded just 1 goal (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won to nil in their last 2 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won 14 of their last 15 matches against Newcastle (Premier League)

– Newcastle have lost 4 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have scored 1 goal in their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in February last year, where Arsenal won 4-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, in the last 4 meetings Arsenal have won 3, Newcastle have won 1

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.12 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.38

 

Newcastle United

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Newcastle’s latest away match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Newcastle’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Newcastle’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Newcastle have scored an average of 1.14 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.57

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as huge favourites, currently priced at just 1.32, whereas Newcastle are 11.5, with the draw 6.2.

Whilst I do favour Arsenal to win this match, I do not favour their low price. With Newcastle failing to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches, and Arsenal having the 4th tightest defence in the Premier League, the BTTS market makes most appeal here.

BTTS

Backing ‘No’ makes most appeal at a decent price of 1.82.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position at 1.8+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Left to run further on the expectation of Newcastle not scoring (it is expected Arsenal will score)

(b) If Arsenal score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing as flat/ slightly negative, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Newcastle not scoring
– However, if Newcastle unexpectedly appear to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v CRYSTAL PALACE

Date: 8th January 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Wolves have not conceded in their last 2 home matches against Crystal Palace (Premier League)

– Wolves have lost just once in their last 7 home matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have won just once in their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 4 of their last 7 away matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in October (last year), where Wolves won 2-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, in the last 4 meetings Wolves have won 2, Crystal Palace 1, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Wolves

– Wolves latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Wolves latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Wolves last 5 home matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Wolves last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Wolves have scored an average of 1.12 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Crystal Palace

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Crystal Palace’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.75

 

Trading Markets Considered

Wolves go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.18, whereas Crystal Palace are 3.95, with the draw 3.4.

Considering the last 5 matches between these sides have produced under 2.5 goals and both teams to score ‘No’ 4 times, another low-scoring match is anticipated.

However, looking at under 2.5 goals is 1.72, with BTTS ‘No’ at 1.93. Therefore, in this instance the match odds market backing Wolves makes more appeal at the bigger price (2.18).

Match Odds

Backing ‘Wolves’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.18.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Wolves’ at 2.18 looks a decent value entry point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.16+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Wolves score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Wolves maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Crystal Palace score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Wolves equalizing, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Crystal Palace score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Wolves scoring in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 6th January 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was less than a month ago, where a 0-0 draw played out (Premier League)

– Manchester United have scored the second highest number of Premier League goals so far this season (33)

– Manchester United are undefeated in their last 7 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have conceded the fewest goals so far in the Premier League (13)

– Manchester City have failed to score in their last 3 matches against Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester City haven’t lost in their last 11 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was less than a month ago, where a 0-0 draw played out (Premier League)

– Prior to this, in the last 4 meetings Manchester United have won 3, with Manchester City winning 1

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 home matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.33 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.44

 

Manchester City

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester City’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Manchester City have scored an average of 1.25 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.75

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1, whereas Manchester United are 3.7, with the draw 3.85. Again, being a semi-final this will be a tight affair, with a draw likely at full-time (0-0 or 1-1).

Also, considering the last 3 matches between these sides have produced under 2.5 goals and both teams to score ‘No’, a low-scoring match is expected.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is 2.24, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2.42.

Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.24.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘under 2.5’ at 2.24 looks a decent value entry point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.2+ at the start for 3.5 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

Match: TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v BRENTFORD

Date: 5th January 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score ‘No’, in all of their last 6 home matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have won 7 of their last 8 home matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have won 4 of their last 5 home cup ties (League Cup)

– Brentford have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 away matches (Championship)

– Brentford have scored an average of 1.64 away goals, whilst conceding 0.91 (Championship)

– Brentford haven’t scored a goal in the first 30 minutes of a match (League Cup)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in the League Cup over 20 years ago, where Tottenham won 2-0

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Tottenham’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L2

– In Tottenham’s last 5 home matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In Tottenham’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.62 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Brentford

– Brentford’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Brentford’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Brentford’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Brentford’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Brentford have scored an average of 1.64 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.91

 

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as firm favourites, currently priced at 1.47, whereas Brentford are 8.6, with the draw 4.8. With Tottenham’s strong home form and record for clean sheets, a Tottenham win is hard to oppose. However, the price in this market doesn’t appeal for a straight trade recommendation. Considering 3 of Tottenham’s last 6 home matches have ended 2-0, this score-line looks most likely here.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is 2.22, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2. The half-time/full-time market also appeals for Tottenham/Tottenham at 2.3.

With this match being a semi-final, it is expected a tighter cagier game will be played by both sides.

 

Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.22, combined with a small hedge position in the correct score market (3-0).


 

Entry Point:

Backing ‘under 2.5’ at 2.22 looks a decent value entry point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.2+ at the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half, or for the hedge position to come in to play

 

Hedge Trade

With it expected Tottenham will keep a clean-sheet here, the score-line most likely to prevent this trade is 3-0. It is therefore advised to take a back position on 3-0 for 0.3 points at 12.5 (current price). This would more than cover the stake of the main trade.

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: SOUTHAMPTON v LIVERPOOL

Date: 4th January 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Southampton have drawn 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have scored 1 goal or less in 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have drawn 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in February 2020, where Liverpool won 4-0
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Liverpool have won on all occasions

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Southampton

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Southampton’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.62 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.12

 

Liverpool

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L0

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W1 D4 L0

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Liverpool have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.65, whereas Southampton are 5.7, with the draw 4.5. Although a Liverpool win looks likely, the amount of away draws they have had causes concern. Southampton have also drawn 3 of their last 4 matches.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is a relatively high 2.82, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2.62. Considering the low-scoring stats from both teams recently, playing the under market appeals. However, for slightly less risk the under 3.5 market gives an extra goal protection.

Over / Under 3.5

Backing unders makes most appeal at a decent price of 1.77.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘under 3.5’ at 1.77 looks a decent value entry point.

It is advised to take a back position at 1.75+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 4 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half, or

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a slightly negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals have been scored before the 30 minute mark, then close the trade

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA v MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 3rd January 2021   Time (GMT):16:30

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time this fixture was played was in June 2020, where Chelsea won 2-1
– Chelsea have drawn 2 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)
– Chelsea have 1 win in their last 5 matches (Premier League)
– Manchester City have drawn 2 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)
– Manchester City have drawn 3 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time this fixture was played was in June 2020, where Chelsea won 2-1
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Chelsea have won 1, Manchester City 2, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Chelsea have scored an average of 2.25 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Manchester City

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 1 away goal this season, whilst conceding 0.71

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.32, whereas Chelsea are 3.3, with the draw 3.7.
Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is currently 2.14, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2.38.
Whilst tempted to take the fresher Manchester City to win at a decent price, a tight draw here looks likely. Therefore, I will be looking at the under 2.5 goals market for best value.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing unders makes most appeal at 2.14. Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value, with Predictology high-lighting under 3.5 as value at 1.41.

 

 


Entry Point:

Backing ‘under 2.5’ at 2.14 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.1+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BRIGHTON v WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

Date: 2nd January 2021   Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last 3 meetings between these sides has resulted in a draw (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen both teams scoring in 3 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have drawn 4 of their last 6 home matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have lost their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have scored a single goal or less in 5 of their last away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in March last year, where a 0-0 played out
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Brighton have won 2 and there has been 2 draws

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Brighton

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W0 D3 L2

– Brighton’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Brighton’s have scored an average of 0.88 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Wolves

– Wolves latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Wolves latest away match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Wolves last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Wolves last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Wolves have scored an average of 1.86 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.43

 

Trading Markets Considered

Brighton go in to this match as slight favourites, currently priced at 2.7, whereas Wolves are 3.15, with the draw also 3.15.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is currently a low 1.52, with BTTS ‘No’ at 1.76.

Whilst I do expect this match to have under 2.5 goals, the price doesn’t appeal. Wolves were hard done by in their last match against Manchester United, where they conceded late on via a deflection. Therefore, their back price of 3.15 looks decent.

Match Odds

Backing Wolves makes most appeal at 3.15. Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as high-value.

 

 


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Wolves’ at 3.15 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 3+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Wolves score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit

 

(bi) If Brighton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Wolves equalizing, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Brighton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Wolves scoring in the second-half

Hedge Trade

The most probable score-line that would prevent this trade is 1-1. Therefore, it is advised to take a back position in the correct score market as follows:

Back 1-1 @ 7 (0.5 pts would mostly cover any loss on the main trade)

 

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v ASTON VILLA

Date:1st January 2021   Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

–  Manchester United have won 7 of their last 9 matches (Premier League)

–  Manchester United have won 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have won 3 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have scored just 1 goal in 3 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa boast the second fewest goals conceded in the Premier League (14)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in a friendly in January this year, where Aston Villa won 1-0
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Manchester United have won 3 and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.25 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Aston Villa 

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 away matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.86 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.43

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.82, whereas Villa are 4.5, with the draw 4.2. As with recent upsets, a 1-1 here is predicted at best… not a goal fest.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is currently a decent 2.6, with BTTS ‘Yes’ at 1.6.

It should be noted that 11 out of the last 15 Premier League matches in this busy schedule have had under 2.5 goals.

Aston Villa have the second leanest defence in the league, this can’t be over-looked especially with Cavani missing through suspension. Again, goals under 2.5 looks a good entry position at this high price.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5

The under 2.5 goals market therefore makes most appeal at 2.6.

 

 


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.6 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.54+ at the start for 3 points.

Predictology and Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 2.46.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

Trade Of The Day – Historical Summaries

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED v LIVERPOOL

Date: 30th December 2020    Time (GMT):20:00

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Newcastle have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– In Newcastle’s last 5 home games, they have conceded in every match (Premier League)

– Newcastle have recorded the second lowest number of shots on target (46 – Premier League)

– Liverpool have scored 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have had a 1-1 draw in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have recorded the highest number of shots on target (97 – Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in July this year, where Liverpool won 1-3 away
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Liverpool have won all matches

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Newcastle United

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Newcastle’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Newcastle have scored an average of 1.29 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.86

 

Liverpool

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L0

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W1 D4 L0

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 away matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Liverpool have scored an average of 2.29 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.71

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as massive favourites, currently priced at 1.32, whereas Newcastle are 11.5, with the draw 6.2. The back price on Liverpool does not appeal in the slightest, and I will probably lay them from the beginning before trading out.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is currently a decent 2.86, with BTTS ‘Yes’ at 1.97.

Looking at yesterday’s Premier League fixtures, 4 of the 5 produced under 2.5, with all of them having BTTS ‘No’. I think this is significant in the busy fixture schedule, with the amount of games beginning to take it’s toll.

 

Considering 4 of Liverpool’s last 5 away games has ended 1-1 (this is currently priced at 14), the unders market looks to offer good value.

 

Over / Under 2.5

The under 2.5 goals market therefore makes most appeal at 2.86.

 

 


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.86 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.8+ at the start for 2 points.

Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 2.57.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

HEDGE TRADE

With the main above trade anticipating a low-scoring match, I’m going to take a small hedge position on the correct score market:

Back 1-2 @ 10 for 0.25 points, which would more than cover the main trade.

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST BROMWICH ALBION v LEEDS UNITED

Date:29th December 2020  Time (GMT):18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met ended in a 1-1 draw (Championship
– West Brom have won just 1 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)
– West Brom have seen BTTS in 1 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)
– West Brom have scored just 2 goals (total) in their last 5 home matches (Premier League)
– Leeds have scored just 1 goal in 3 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)
– Leeds have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 away matches (Premier League)
– Leeds have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in January this year in the Championship, where a 1-1 draw played out
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, West Brow have won 2 and Leeds 2

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Brom

– West Brom’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– West Brom’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In West Brom’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In West Brom’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– West Brom have scored an average of 0.71 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 2.14

 

Leeds United

– Leeds’ latest match record reads W2 D1 L1

– Leeds’ latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Leeds’ last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Leeds’ last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Leeds have scored an average of 1.71 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.43

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leeds United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1, whereas West Brom are 3.65, with the draw 3.9.

With Sam Allardyce taking over recently at West Brom, he is sure to tighten things up defensively.  This was evident with their last match against Liverpool, where they came away with a 1-1 draw. This will be a tighter game than expected by the markets, and for that reason the under 2.5 goals market appeals. Also, with the frantic fixtures recently, tiredness must surely be creeping in, again lowering the amount of goals scored.

Over / Under 2.5

The under 2.5 goals market appeals at 2.34.

Predictology and Infogol are also highlighting this selection as high-value.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.34 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.3+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA v ASTON VILLA

Date: 28th December 2020   Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met ended in a 1-2 away win for Chelsea

– Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have won their last 6 matches against Aston Villa (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have not conceded a goal in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in June this year, where Chelsea won 1-2 away

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Chelsea have won all matches

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Chelsea have scored an average of 2.43 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.0

 

Aston Villa

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored just once

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.33

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.77, whereas Aston Villa are 4.9, with the draw 4.2. Laying Chelsea appeals here, however looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is currently 1.62, and BTTS Yes is 1.62.

 

This will be a tighter game than expected by the markets, and for that reason the under 2.5 goals market appeals.

 

Over / Under 2.5

Aston Villa have conceded the second least goals in the Premier League, with just 13 (Manchester City are leaders on 12). Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value.


 

Entry Point:

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.6 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.5+ at the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or

– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match:WEST HAM v BRIGHTON Date:27th December 2020    Time (GMT):14:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met ended in a 3-3 draw

– West Ham have won 4 of their last 7 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have lost 3 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in February this year, where a 3-3 draw resulted

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Westh Ham have won 0, Brighton 2, and there has been 2 draws

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Ham United

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.43 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.36

 

Brighton

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Brighton’s latest away match record reads W0 D3 L2

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Brighton have scored an average of 1.29 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.57

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.42, whereas Brighton are 3.25, with the draw 3.5. 

Looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is currently 2.06, and BTTS Yes is 1.81.

Match Odds

David Moyes is the most experienced Manager in the Premier League, and possibly the most astute. He will win this match against a struggling Brighton side.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘West Ham’ at 2.42 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.4+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham extending / maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Brighton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and scoring further, or

– If the score is still 1-0 by 70 mins, close the trade

(bii) If Brighton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: ASTON VILLA v CRYSTAL PALACE

Date: 26th December 2020  Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these two sides played this fixture, Aston Villa won 2-0

– Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 2 of their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost to nil in their last 8 league defeats (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in July this year, where Aston Villa won 2-0

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Aston Villa have won 1, Crystal Palace 2, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Aston Villa

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Aston Villa’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 2 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.08

 

Crystal Palace

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Crystal Palace’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L1

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.57 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.57

 

Trading Markets Considered

Aston Villa go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.87, whereas Crystal Palace are 4.06, with the draw 4. 

Looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is currently 1.8, and BTTS Yes is 1.74.

Match Odds

Given Aston Villa’s decent form of late (winning 2 and drawing 1 in their last 3 matches), combined with Crystal Palace’s defensive concerns, a back position on Aston Villa looks decent value.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Aston Villa’ at 1.87 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 1.85+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Aston Villa score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Aston Villa extending / maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Crystal Palace score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Aston Villa equalizing and scoring further, or

– If the score is still 1-0 by 70 mins, close the trade

(bii) If Crystal Palace score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Aston Villa scoring in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LEICESTER CITY v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 26th December 2020    Time (GMT):12:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Leicester have seen both teams to score just once in their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Leicester have lost 8 of their last 9 matches Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United have won their last 10 away matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen BTTS in their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in July this year, where Manchester United won 0-2 away

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Manchester United have won 4, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Leicester City

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L1

– Leicester’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored once

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Leicester have scored an average of 1.29 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.43

 

Manchester United

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 3.17 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.44, whereas Leicester are 3.05, with the draw 3.7. 

Looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is currently 1.79, and BTTS Yes is 1.64.

Match Odds

Again, given Manchester United’s impressive away form, combined with their strong record against Leicester, backing Manchester United to win appeals at this price (2.44).


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Manchester United’ at 2.44 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.4+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester United score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Manchester United extending / maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Leicester score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Manchester United equalizing and scoring further, or

– If the score is still 1-0 by 70 mins, close the trade

(bii) If Leicester score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Manchester United scoring in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

Match: EVERTON v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 23rd December 2020  Time (GMT):20:00

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these two sides met at Goodison Park, was in November this year, where Manchester United won 1-3

– Everton have lost 2 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Everton have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Everton have seen both teams scoring in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have won their last 10 away matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen BTTS in their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen over 3.5 goals in all of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have won the League Cup 5 times, with Everton winning 0 times

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met at Goodison Park, was in November this year, where Manchester United won 1-3

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Everton and Manchester United have won one apiece, and there has been 2 draws

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Everton (Premier League)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Everton have scored an average of 2.14 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.57

 

Manchester United (Premier League)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 3.17 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.26, whereas Everton are 3.4, with the draw 3.75. 

Looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is currently 1.73, and BTTS Yes is 1.65.

Match Odds

Given Manchester United’s impressive away form, combined with their record in this Cup, their recent away win against Everton, backing Manchester United to win appeals at this price (2.26).


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Manchester United’ at 2.26 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.2+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester United score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Manchester United extending / maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Everton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Manchester United equalizing and scoring further, or

– If the score is still 1-0 by 65 mins, close the trade

(bii) If Everton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Manchester United scoring in the second-half

 

 

 

League: ITALIAN SERIE ‘A’

Match: JUVENTUS v FIORENTINA

Date: 22nd December 2020    Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

– In the last 6 meetings between these sides, both teams have scored just once (Serie A)

– In the last 6 meetings between these sides, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times (Serie A)

– Juventus have won 5 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Juventus have won their last 9 home matches against Fiorentina (Serie A)

– Fiorentina have scored just a single goal (total) in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Fiorentina have failed to score in their last 4 away matches (Serie A)

– In Firorentina’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 0 times (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year, where Juventus won 3-0 at home

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Juventus have won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Juventus

– Juventus’ latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Juventus’ latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Juventus’ last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Juventus’ last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Juventus have scored an average of 2 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 0.5

 

Fiorentina

– Fiorentina’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Fiorentina’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Fiorentina’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times (zero away)

– In Fiorentina’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Fiorentina have scored an average of 0.83 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.17

 

Trading Markets Considered

Not surprisingly, Juventus go in to this match as clear favourites, currently priced at just 1.36, whereas Fiorentina are 11.  However, for a trade I will be looking to the Both Teams To Score market. Given Fiorentina’s difficulties with scoring away, it is expected Juventus will win to nil.

BTTS

Backing ‘No’ at 1.98 looks a decent value entry trade price.  The Infogol model are also highlighting this market selection as good-value.


 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.95+ at the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Fiorentina not scoring (it is expected Juventus will score)

 

(b) If Juventus score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be flat / showing a small negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Fiorentina not scoring

– However, if Fiorentina appear to be creating chances and having shots on target, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If Fiorentina score first in the first-half, then:

– It is advised to close the trade to cut the loss

 

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 21st December 2020    Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– In Chelsea’s last 5 home games, both teams have scored 4 times (Premier League)

– Chelsea have won twice in their last 5 home games (Premier League)

– Chelsea have scored just 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have scored at least 1 goal in their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where West Ham won 3-2 at home

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Chelsea have won once, West Ham once, and there has been 2 draws

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea (Premier League)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L2

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Chelsea have scored an average of 2 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.08

 

West Ham United

– West Ham United’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– West Ham United’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In West Ham United’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In We st Ham United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– West Ham United have scored an average of 1.62 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.23

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.56, whereas West Ham United are 6.6.  Given Chelsea’s recent dip in form, having lost their last 2 matches, backing Chelsea doesn’t appeal. However, for a trade recommendation I will be looking to the Both Teams To Score market.
BTTS

Backing ‘Yes’ at 1.8 looks a decent trade price. 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.75+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

  1. If Chelsea score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(b) If West Ham look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

 

  1. If West Ham score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Chelsea scoring in the second-half

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

 

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open.

 

4. If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize loss.

League:ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match:MANCHESTER UNITED v LEEDS UNITED

Date: 20th December 2020   Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Manchester United have won 2 of their last 5 home games (all competitions)

– Manchester United have won once in their last 5 home games (Premier League)

– Manchester United have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have seen BTTS in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have scored 3 goals (total) in their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have conceded the joint 3rd highest number of goals in the league (24)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July 2019 (friendly), where Manchester United won 4-0

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester United (Premier League)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.83 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.58

 

Leeds United

– Leeds United’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Leeds United’s latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Leeds United’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Leeds United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Leeds United have scored an average of 1.69 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.85

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United predictably go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.71, whereas Leeds United are 4.8. This is a match where the markets are expecting a goal-fest, with the over 2.5 goals market priced at an extremely low 1.37. Even the ‘any other home win’ in the correct score market is priced at a very low 5.5. 
Given that Manchester United have scored just an average of 0.5 goal at home, the under 3.5 goals market looks decent value at 2.1.

 

Over / Under 3.5

Going against expectations, backing unders at 2.1 looks a decent trade price. Predictology are also even highlighting under 2.5 as a high-value position to take at 3.15. 

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘under 3.5’ at 2+ at the start for 4 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 4 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a slightly negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals have been scored before the 30 minute mark (unlikely), then close the trade

 

 

League: GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

Match: UNION BERLIN v BORUSSIA DORTMUND

Date: 18th December 2020  Time (GMT):19:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have produced over 3.5 goals (all competitions)

– Union Berlin are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 matches (Bundesliga)

– Union Berlin have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Bundesliga)

– Union Berlin have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 9 matches (Bundesliga)

– Borussia Dortmund have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Borussia Dortmund are undefeated in their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Borussia Dortmund have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 9 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year, where Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 at home

– Prior to this, in the last 4 matches Union Berlin have won 1, Borussia Dortmund 2, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Union Berlin

– Union Berlin’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Union Berlin’s latest home match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Union Berlin’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 5 times

– In Union Berlin’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Union Berlin have scored an average of 2.08 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.42

 

 

Borussia Dortmund (all competitions)

– Borussia Dortmund’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Borussia Dortmund’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Borussia Dortmund’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 5 times

– In Borussia Dortmund’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Borussia Dortmund have scored an average of 2.08 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.33

 

Trading Markets Considered

Borussia Dortmund are favourites for this match, priced at 1.81. This seems decent value, but with Union Berlin recording 3 draws in their last 4 home games, this causes a concern.
The BTTS Yes market also appeals, although is currently trading at 1.71.
However, the over / under 2.5 goals market looks decent value and a few ticks higher at 1.77.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing Overs at 1.77 looks a decent trade price considering the high-scoring statistics on this match. Predictology are also highlighting over 3.5 as a high-value position to take at 2.63. However, the over 2.5 market is more liquid and there is less risk involved.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Overs’ at 1.74+ at the start for 4 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half (although close if still no goals by 55 mins)

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

 

Hedge Trade

With Union Berlin’s propensity for drawing games (and Dortmund missing star striker Haaland), it is recommended to take a position on the correct score of 1-1 @ 8.8+ for 0.5 point. This would mostly cover the main trade stake.

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: SHEFFIELD UNITED v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 17th December 2020           Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Sheffield United currently have 1 point in the Premier League and are bottom

 – Sheffield United have lost their last 7 matches (Premier League)

– Sheffield United have scored an average of 0.42 goals and conceded 1.75

– Man United have won their last 9 away matches (Premier League)

 – Man United have scored 3+ goals in their last 9 away matches (Premier League)

– Man United have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 9 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in June this year, where Manchester United won 3-0 at home

– Prior to this, in the last 4 matches Sheffield Utd have won 0, Man Utd 3, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Sheffield United (all competitions)

– Sheffield United’s latest match record reads W0 D0 L5

– Sheffield United’s latest home match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Sheffield United’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Sheffield United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Sheffield United have scored an average of 0.42 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.75

 

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L0

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.73 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.55

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United are favourites for this match, priced at 1.49. This seems decent value considering it is against Sheffield United, sitting at the bottom of the table with just 1 point. However, in order to look for better trading value, the over / under 2.5 goals market looks more profitable.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing Overs at 1.85 looks a decent trade price considering the statistics on this match. Predictology are also highlighting over 3.5 as a high-value position to take at 2.99. However, the over 2.5 market is more tradeable and there is less risk involved.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Overs’ at 1.8+ at the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: ARSENAL v SOUTHAMPTON

Date: 16th December 2020    Time (GMT):18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Arsenal have lost their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have 6 defeats in their last 8 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have scored 1 goal in their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have won 6 of their last 8 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton are unbeaten in their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have scored at least 1 goal in their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in June this year, where Arsenal won 2-0 at home

– Prior to this, in the last 4 matches Arsenal have won 2, Southampton 1, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Arsenal (Premier League)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W0 D1 L4

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored once

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Arsenal have scored an average of 0.83 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.25

 

Southampton (Premier League)

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Southampton’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times (away, 4 times)

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times (away, 3 times)

– Southampton have scored an average of 2 goals this season, whilst conceding 1.42

 

Trading Markets Considered

Almost surprisingly given their recent woeful (Premier League) form, Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.34. This price holds appeal on this market, because looking at the league table from a broader trading perspective, Southampton (4th) would be near the top of the bollinger band, and Arsenal (15th) would be towards the bottom. When this situation occurs, it is expected that positions would begin to revert back to the mean (average).

 

There has also been so many unexpected results, defying analysis and form recently that an Arsenal win here should not be as unexpected as form suggests. Another peculiar aspect uncovered whilst researching this match, is that Southampton haven’t won a Premier League game on a Wednesday in their last 21 attempts. Arsenal however, have only lost one of their last 21 when played on a Wednesday. Now, I am not basing a match prediction on this, but I do believe it is now time for Arsenal to turn the corner, and get a home win.
One further aspect to consider, is that Arsenal are used to playing matches in quick succession, being in the Europa League.  Southampton are not, and I expect this will play to Arsenal’s favour.

Match Odds

Backing Arsenal at 2.32 looks a decent trade price for an Arsenal team looking to start heading upwards. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as a high-value position to take at 2.25.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Arsenal’ at 2.28+ at the start for 4 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Arsenal score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Arsenal extends / maintains the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Southampton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Arsenal equalizing and scoring further, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Southampton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Arsenal scoring in the second-half

Hedge Trade

I’m going to recommend a small hedge on the correct score market, in case this is not Arsenal’s match to record a home win. The most likely scenario as highlighted by Predictology would be 1-1, which should be backed at 7.8 for 0.5 point. This scenario would mostly cover the main trade in terms of stake.

 

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v CHELSEA

Date: 15th December 2020   Time (GMT):18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Wolves have won just once in their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have failed to score in their last 2 matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have scored an average of 0.92 goals, whilst conceding 1.33 per game

– Chelsea have seen under 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have won 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have won 4 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have scored an average of 2.08 goals, whilst conceding 1 per game

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where Chelsea won 2-0 at home

– Prior to this, in the last 4 matches Chelsea have won 2, Wolves 1, and there has been 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Wolves

– Wolves latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Wolves latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Wolves last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Wolves last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Wolves have had 49 shots on target so far this season (12th highest in the League)

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Chelsea have had 68 shots on target so far this season (2nd highest in the League)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.72. This holds decent appeal, since it is expected Chelsea will bounce back from their last 1-0 away defeat at Everton. 

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.83. I like the look of the price on this market, since I think Chelsea will be resistant defensively, probably scoring just 1 or 2 goals. I also don’t think that Wolves will score. However, I am concerned that Chelsea could start the game rapidly and score early on, making this an uncomfortable trade to see through the rest of the match.

Match Odds

Backing Chelsea at 1.72 looks a decent trade price for a Chelsea team that could go top of the table with a win.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Chelsea’ at 1.7+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Chelsea score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Chelsea extends / maintains the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Wolves score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Chelsea equalizing and scoring further, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Wolves score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Chelsea scoring in the second-half

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CRYSTAL PALACE v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Date: 13th December 2020     Time (GMT):14:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

 – Crystal Palace have lost 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 7 of their last 9 matches against Tottenham (all competitions)

– In Crystal Palace’s last 4 defeats they have failed to score (Premier League)

– Tottenham have won 5 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Tottenham have won 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Tottenham have kept 4 consecutive clean sheets (Premier League)

– Tottenham have scored the 3rd most goals in the Premier League (23)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where they drew 1-1 at Crystal Palace

– The 4 meetings prior to that, Crystal Palace have won 1, Tottenham 3

Team Form (last 5 matches):

 

Crystal Palace (all competitions)

– Palaces’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L2

– Palaces’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Palaces’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Palaces’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenaham’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Tottenaham’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Tottenaham’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored once

– In Tottenaham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Tottenham have conceded the lowest number of goals in the league so far (9)

 

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham unsurprisingly go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.86. 

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.95. I like the look of the price on this market, since I think Tottenham will be resistant defensively and look to counter, probably scoring just 1 or 2 goals. I also don’t think that Palace will score. However, I am concerned that the game could become too open and Tottenham score 3.

BTTS ‘No’ is 2.06. I also like the look of this market and price, since I don’t think Palace will score in this match. However, with the high number of penalties being awarded recently, this could see this trade wiped out, which makes me cautious here (so far, 3 penalties have been awarded in 5 games this weekend).

 

Match Odds

Backing Tottenham at 1.86 looks a decent trade price for an in-form side here. I doubt they will concede, and will go on to win the match 0-1 or 0-2. Mourinho will also want to capitalize on both Manchester teams and Chelsea dropping points Saturday, and will not pass up this opportunity against Crystal Palace to further their position. Predictology are also highlighting this selection as good value at 1.81.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Tottenham’ at 1.8+ at the start for 4.5 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Tottenham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Tottenham maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Palace score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Tottenham equalizing and scoring further, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Palace score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Tottenham scoring in the second-half

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: EVERTON v CHELSEA

Date: 12th December 2020     Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Everton have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Everton have lost 4 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Everton have lost their last 2 home matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have won their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have not conceded in their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have scored 2 or more goals in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in March this year, where Chelsea won 4-0 at home

– The 4 meetings prior to that, Chelsea have won 1, Everton 1 and 2 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Everton (all competitions)

– Everton’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Everton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea unsurprisingly go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.75.  This is tempting given Chelsea’s form and Everton’s woes, particularly in defence.

Looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is priced lower at 1.68. BTTS Yes is also around the same price at 1.69. However, only Tottenham (9) have conceded fewer goals than Chelsea’s 11. Therefore, with Everton’s defensive injuries and Chelsea having the second highest goal tally in the league (25), an outright Chelsea win looks decent value here.

Match Odds

Backing Chelsea at 1.75 looks a decent trade price for an in-form genuine title contender.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Chelsea’ at 1.7+ at the start for 3.5 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Chelsea score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Chelsea maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Everton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Chelsea equalizing, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Everton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Chelsea scoring in the second-half

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LEEDS UNITED v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 11th December 2020  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Leeds have drawn 2 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 home matches (all competitions)

– Leeds have scored just 2 goals in their last 4 home games (Premier League)

– West Ham have lost 1 of their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, they have scored just a single goal in 4 of them (Premier League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was over 8 years ago in the Championship, where they drew 1-1 at Leeds

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Leeds United

– Leed’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Leed’s latest home match record reads W1 D2 L2

– In Leed’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Leed’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

West Ham United

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– West Ham’s latest away match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leeds go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.34.  However, it doesn’t appeal to back Leeds at this price due to them only winning 1 match in their last 5.
Leeds and West Ham also have 4 clean sheets apiece. Only Chelsea and Tottenham have more with 5 each. Looking at the over / under 2.5 goals market, it is expected that this match will have goals, with overs available at just 1.65.  This seems at odds with the data, where Leeds have scored just 4 goals in their last 5 games, and West Ham under Moyes will look to keep things tight in defence.  

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘unders’ looks good value here, at around 2.5 (current trading price). Predictology is also highlighting this selection as good value at 2.38.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 2.4+ at the start for 2.5 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or

– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals are scored within 35 minutes, close the trade

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: BAYER LEVEKUSEN v SLAVIA PRAGUE

Date: 10th December 2020   Time (GMT):17:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Leverkusen have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Leverkusen have seen both teams scoring in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Leverkusen haven’t lost in their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Leverkusen have scored an average 3.4 goals whilst conceding 1.6 (Europa League)

– Prague have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Prague have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Prague have scored an average 2.2 goals whilst conceding 1.2 (Europa League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October this year, where Slavia Prague won 1-0 at home

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Bayer Leverkusen

– Leverkusen’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Leverkusen’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Leverkusen’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Leverkusen’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Slavia Prague

– Prague’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Prague’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Prague’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Prague’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leverkusen go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.72.  
Both teams have already qualified from Group C with 12 points. However, this match will determine who takes top-spot, so there is still something to play for.
With both teams prolific scorers, it is expected there will be goals in this match, which makes the over / under 2.5 goals market appealing.

 

Over / Under 2.5

Backing ‘overs’ looks a good play here, at around 1.76. Predictology is also highlighting this selection as good value at 1.64.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘overs’ at 1.7+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of 2 further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating many chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: AJAX v ATALANTA

Date: 9th December 2020   Time (GMT):17:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Ajax have seen under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 home matches (Champions League)

– Ajax have lost 3 of their last 4 home matches (Champions League)

– Ajax drew their last match against Atalanta (Champions League)

– Atalanta have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Atalanta have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October this year, where a 2-2 draw played out at Atalanta

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Ajax

– Ajax’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Ajax’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Ajax’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Ajax’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Ajax have scored an average of 1.4 Champions League goals this season, whilst conceding 1.2.

 

Atalanta

– Atalanta’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Atalanta’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Atalanta’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Atalanta’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 0 times

– Atalanta have scored an average of 1.8 Champions League goals this season, whilst conceding 1.6

 

Trading Markets Considered

Ajax go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.16.  
With the recent previous result between these sides ending in a draw, coupled with the fact Atalanta need just a draw to progress in this competition, it would seem Atalanta will be set to defend their position. Away from home, Atalanta have also conceded just a single goal in their last 4 outings.
This makes the over/under goals market appealing. Backing under 2.5 is available at 3.2, however the more secure under 3.5 price is 1.9. Predictology is also highlighting this as a good value position to take.

 

Over / Under 3.5

Backing ‘unders ’ offers good value at around 1.9.


 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.88+ at the start for 3.5 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 4 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half, or

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a slightly negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals have been scored before the 30 minute mark, then close the trade

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: RB LEIPZIG v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 8th December 2020    Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Leipzig have won their last 7 home matches (all competitions)

– Leipzig have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Leipzig have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Man United have won 8 of their last 9 away matches (all competitions)

– Man United have seen BTTS in their last 6 away matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Man United have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 8 matches (UEFA Champions League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October this year, where Manchester United won 5-0 at home

Team Form (last 5 matches):

RB Leipzig

– Leipzig’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Leipzig’s latest home match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Leipzig’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Leipzig’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Leipzig have scored an average of 1.6 Champions League goals this season, whilst conceding 2.

 

Manchester United

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W4 D0 L1

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 2.6 Champions League goals this season, whilst conceding 1.4

 

Trading Markets Considered

Somewhat surprisingly, RB Leipzig go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.44.  
The markets that I would normally turn to in these circumstances are BTTS ‘Yes’ and over 2.5. However, they are currently trading at just 1.5 and 1.58 respectively, which are not good prices to open a back trade in these markets.
Considering the recent previous result between these sides, coupled with the fact Manchester United need at least a draw to progress in this competition, it would seem that opposing Leipzig would be more beneficial from a trading perspective. Acknowledging that Leipzig have good home form (beating both PSG and Istanbul) in this competition, but also taking in to account their weekend’s gruelling 3-3 encounter with Bayern Munich, it is anticipated that Manchester United will look to win this game outright rather than playing for a draw.

 

Match Odds

Looking at this market, backing ‘Manchester United’ looks good value at around 2.98. Predictology are also highlighting this as good value at 2.85.


 

Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Manchester United’ at 2.9+ at the start for 2 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Manchester United score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Manchester United maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Leipzig score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Manchester United equalizing (they are the highest ranked team in the Premier League for coming back from a losing position), or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Leipzig score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Manchester United scoring in the second-half

 

Hedge Trade

Using the BTTS and over 2.5 goals markets as price reference, the most probable draw score-line that would prevent this trade is 2-2. Therefore, it is advised to take a back position in the correct score market as follows:

Back 2-2 @ 13 (0.16 pts would cover any loss on the main trade)

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BRIGHTON v SOUTHAMPTON

Date: 7th December 2020     Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Brighton have drawn 4 of their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen both teams scoring in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have seen both teams scoring in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have scored in all of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where the teams drew 1-1

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen Southampton win 3, and 1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Brighton

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Brighton’s latest home match record reads W0 D3 L2

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Brighton have scored an average of 1.4 Premier League goals this season, whilst conceding 1.6

 

Southampton

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Southampton’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.9 Premier League goals this season, whilst conceding 1.6

 

Trading Markets Considered

Brighton go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.62.  Considering Brighton haven’t won at home in their last 5 matches, backing them here does not hold any appeal.
In fact, it is a difficult match to predict an outright winner, with a score-draw looking likely (priced at 3.5). The over 2.5 market holds appeal at 2, but the fact that in their last 6 meetings this has occurred just once, deters.
However, expecting a fairly open attacking game, the both teams to score market is of interest.

 

BTTS

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ looks decent at around 1.8.


 

Entry Point:

With Brighton scoring over 21% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, it is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.75+ at the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Brighton score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Southampton look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

(b) If Southampton score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Brighton scoring

(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased at a bigger price.

(d) If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize loss.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: TOTTENHAM v ARSENAL

Date: 6th December 2020     Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Tottenham have scored 21 goals so far this season, over twice as many as Arsenal (10)

– Tottenham have won 4 of their last 5 Premier League matches

– Tottenham have won 6 of their last 7 home matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have won 3 of their last 4 home matches against Arsenal

– Tottenham have not conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches

– Arsenal have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 Premier League matches

– Arsenal have lost 5 of their last 8 Premier League matches

– Arsenal have lost 4 of their last 7 away Premier League matches

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where Tottenham won 2-1 at home

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen Tottenham win 1, Arsenal 1 and 2 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Tottenham

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Tottenham’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored once

– In Tottenham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Tottenham have scored an average of 2.1 Premier League goals this season, whilst conceding 0.9

 

Arsenal

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Arsenal’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1 Premier League goals this season, whilst conceding 1.2

 

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.26.  
Looking at xG (expected goals) analysis, it is anticipated Tottenham will score around 1.76 goals, and Arsenal 1. The match odds market therefor appears good value for an in-form Tottenham side against a poorly performing Arsenal that are struggling to score goals (Premier League).
Backing Tottenham is also being highlighted by Predictology as a good value position, at odds as low as 2.04.

 

Match Odds

Looking at this market, backing ‘Tottenham’ offers good value at around 2.2 to take all 3 points.


 

Entry Point:

With Tottenham scoring over 28% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, it is advised to take a back position on ‘Tottenham’ at 2.18+ at the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Tottenham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Tottenham maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Arsenal score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Tottenham equalizing, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Arsenal score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Tottenham scoring in the second-half

 

Hedge Trade

The most probable score-line that would prevent this trade is 1-1. Therefore, it is advised to take a back position in the correct score market as follows:

Back 1-1 @ 7.4 (0.15 pts would mostly cover any loss on the main trade)

 

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER CITY v FULHAM

Date:5th December 2020      Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Manchester City have won 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City currently have the third highest number of shots in the Premier League, with 144

– Manchester City have won their last 9 matches against Fulham (all competitions)

– Fulham have lost 3 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Fulham have conceded the most goals in the Premier League so far, with 19

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January this year, where Manchester City won 4-0 at home

– Prior to this, the last 4 meetings have seen Manchester City win all 4

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester City

– City’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– City’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In City’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored just once

– In City’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Fulham

– Fulham’s latest match record reads W1 D0 L0

– Fulham’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Fulham’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Fulham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Trading Markets Considered

Not surprisingly, Manchester City go in to this match as massive favourites, priced at just 1.15, which holds zero appeal in backing. Manchester City now seem to be getting back to their usual ruthless goal-scoring ways of last season. This was evident last weekend, when they beat Burnley 5-0.

 

With Fulham currently having the leakiest defence in the league (conceding 19), it is expected this match will contain goals. Looking at the over / under 2.5 market, to back overs is currently trading at just 1.38. However, moving to the over / under 3.5 market, backing overs is available at around 2 (evens) and offers much better value from a trading perspective.

Over / Under 3.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘overs’ looks a superior trade position to take as opposed to the 2.5 market.


 

Entry Point:

With Manchester City’s early average first goal time at home (16 mins), it is advised to take a back position on ‘overs’ at 2.0+ at the start for 2.5 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of 3 goals in the second-half, or

– If neither team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of a further 2 goals in the second-half

(d) If there are three goals in the first-half, this will be showing a decent profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank available profit, or

– Leave open on the expectation of a further goal in the second-half

Pre-Match Analysis

League: EFL CHAMPIONSHIP

Match: BARNSLEY v AFC BOURNEMOUTH

Date: 4th December 2020  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Barnsley have lost 1 of their last 6 home matches (Championship)

– Barnsley have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– Barnsley have seen under 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 15 home matches (Championship)

– Bournemouth have drawn 3 of their last 5 away matches (Championship)

– Bournemouth have scored in all 5 of their last matches (Championship)

– Bournemouth have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 10 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in 2014, where Bournemouth won 0-1 away

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Barnsley

– Barnsley’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Barnsley’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Barnsley’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Barnsley’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 twice

 

Bournemouth

– Bournemouth’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Bournemouth’s latest away match record reads W1 D3 L1

– In Bournemouth’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Bournemouth’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Not surprisingly, Bournemouth (currently 2nd in the league) go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.22. This holds some appeal, but Bournemouth having drawn 3 of their last 5 away outings, coupled with Barnsley’s resilient home form (lost just once in 5), brings enough reservations to look at other markets.
With both teams having scored in four of their last 5 (home/away), the both teams to score ‘Yes’ market looks good value at 1.83.

BTTS

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ offers good value from a trading perspective at around 1.83.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.83+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

1. If Bournemouth score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(b) If Barnsley look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

2. If Barnsley score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Bournemouth scoring in the second-half

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased at a bigger price.

4. If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize loss.


League: UEAFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: AC MILAN v CELTIC

Date: 3rd December 2020   Time (GMT):19:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– AC Milan have won their last 4 of their last 5 matches against Celtic

– AC Milan have won by 2+ goals in their last 3 matches against Celtic

– AC Milan have seen both teams scoring in 2 of their last 5 home matches

– Celtic have lost by 2+ goals in 3 of their last 4 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Celtic have conceded 13 goals in their last 4 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Celtic have scored 4 goals in their last 4 matches (UEFA Europa League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October this year, where Milan won 1-3 away

– Prior to that, in the last 4 meetings Milan have won 3, Celtic 1

– The last 3 times that this fixture has been played, Celtic have failed to score in all matches

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Milan

– Milan’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Milan’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Milan’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Milan’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Celtic

– Celtic’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Celtic’s latest away match record reads W1 D3 L1

– In Celtic’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 5 times

– In Celtic’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Unsurprisingly, Milan go in to this match as big favourites, currently priced at 1.32, which doesn’t hold any appeal for a trade recommendation.
Considering this group is wide open, Milan will be expected to win, whilst also having an eye on their away match to Sampdoria in 3 days time.  The markets that hold most appeal are:

 

– Half-time / Full-time (Milan/Milan) – Milan have an average 1st time goal of 20 mins at home in the Europa League (price 1.87)

– BTTS (No) – Celtic have not scored away in Milan in their last 3 attempts (price 2.02)

– Under/Over 3.5 – It is expected Milan will get the job done, whilst considering their next away match (price 1.78)

 

Over / Under 3.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘unders’ offers good value from a trading perspective at around 1.78. Predictology is even highlighting value in backing under 2.5 at 2.71, but the under 3.5 market gives a safer 1 goal buffer.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.75+ at the start for 2.5 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 4 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half, or

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a slightly negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals have been scored before the 30 minute mark, then close the trade

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEAFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: SEVILLA v CHELSEA

Date: 2nd December 2020   Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Sevilla have won their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Sevilla have lost 1 of their last 9 home matches (Champions League)

– Sevilla have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches

– Chelsea have lost 2 of their last 6 matches (Champions League)

– Chelsea have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 4 away matches (Champions League)

– Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October this year, where a 0-0 draw occurred at Stamford Bridge

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Sevilla

– Sevilla’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Sevilla’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Sevilla’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Sevilla’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored once

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as slight favourites, currently priced at 2.6.  However, this doesn’t hold any appeal for a trade recommendation given Sevilla’s strong home form.
Considering both teams will be pushing for being group winners, and Sevilla’s make-shift defence (coronavirus strikes again), this should be a more open encounter than when these sides met previously. Expecting goals, the over / under 2.5 market offers value.

 

Over / Under 2.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘overs’ offers good value from a trading perspective at around 2.15. Predictology is even highlighting value in backing over 3.5 at 3.29, but the over 2.5 market carries less risk.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘overs’ at 2.1+ at the start for 2.5 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEAFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL v AJAX

Date: 1st December 2020  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last meeting between these sides resulted in a 0-1 away win for Liverpool

– Liverpool have won 9 of their last 12 home matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have won 3 of their last 4 matches (UEFA Champions League)

– Liverpool have seen over 3.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have scored an average of 1 goal in their last 2 home Champions League matches

– Ajax have won their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Ajax have seen BTTS in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Ajax have conceded an average of 1.25 goals in their last 2 away Champions League matches

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in October this year, where Liverpool won 0-1 away

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Liverpool’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Ajax

– Ajax’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Ajax’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Ajax’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Ajax’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as big favourites, currently priced at 1.77.  However, this doesn’t hold any appeal for a trade recommendation given Liverpool’s recent stuttering (losing at home to Atalanta, drawing away at Brighton).
Considering their previous meeting ended with a solitary goal, and Liverpool scoring just a single goal in their last 2 matches, the over / under 3.5 market looks excellent value. It has been noted that Ajax are normally a high scoring side, but this is mainly within their Eredivisie Dutch League.

 

Over / Under 3.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘unders’ offers good value from a trading perspective at around 1.83 (this was trading at 1.9 yesterday). Predictology is even highlighting value in backing under 2.5 at 2.89, but the under 3.5 market gives an additional goal buffer.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.82+ at the start for 2.5 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 4 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half, or

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a slightly negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals have been scored before the 30 minute mark, then close the trade

Pre-Match Analysis

League: PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v ASTON VILLA

Date: 30th November 2020  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last 5 meetings between these sides have seen under 2.5 goals (Premier League)

– West Ham have won 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have won their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Aston Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where a 1-1 draw played out at West Ham

– Prior to this, their 4 most recent Premier League meetings have resulted in West Ham winning 1, Aston Villa winning 1, and 2 draws

– These 5 previous meetings all registered under 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 2

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Ham United

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0 (Premier League)

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0 (all competitions)

– In West Ham’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored twice

– In West Ham’s last 5 Premier League matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Aston Villa

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W2 D0 L3 (all competitions)

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1 (all competitions)

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored once

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 Premier League matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.44. I am tempted to back this, but it is still unclear if West Ham top-scorer (Antonio) will be featuring. Furthermore, the last two meetings between these sides have ended in a draw.
Considering their previous meeting results, West Ham’s improved defensive record, and influential players out or uncertain, the over / under 2.5 market looks better value.

 

Over / Under 2.5.

Looking at this market, backing ‘unders’ offer good value from a trading perspective at around 2.3. Predictology is also highlighting this selection as having good value as low as 2.21.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 2.21+ at the start for 2.5 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or

– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

Pre-Match Analysis

League: PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: SOUTHAMPTON v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date:29th November 2020  Time (GMT):14:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Southampton have lost 1 of their last 7 home matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Manchester United have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have won their last 3 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where a 2-2 draw played out in Manchester

– Prior to this, their last 5 meetings have resulted in Southampton winning 0, Manchester United winning 2, and 3 draws

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Southampton

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L1

– Southampton’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Southampton’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored once

– In Southampton’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

 

Manchester United

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Manchester United’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1 (all competitions)

– In Manchester United’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 5 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1. I am tempted to back this, but with Southampton’s impressive form and Manchester United playing mid-week, then this brings more uncertainty. On top of this, the last two meetings between these sides ending in a draw. However, with both teams scoring recently when home and away respectively, the over / under 2.5 market looks better value.

 

Over / Under 2.5.

Looking at this market, backing ‘overs’ offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.85.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘overs’ at 1.85+ shortly after the start for 3 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the small loss, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of further goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of more than 2 goals in the second-half, or

– If neither team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of a further goal in the second-half

 

Hedge Trade:

With both teams scoring consecutively in their last 4 outings, a 1-1 draw would be the main score-line to prevent this trade coming good. Therefore a position on the correct score market will hedge this position:

Backing 1-1 @ 8 for 0.4 points will cover the above trade stake from this scenario and trading perspective.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: EVERTON v LEEDS UNITED

Date: 28th November 2020    Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Everton have seen BTTS in the first half in 6 of their last 7 home matches (Premier League)

– Everton have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)

– Everton have lost 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have 1 win in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Leeds have scored in all 4 of their away matches this season (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in 2015, where Leeds won 2-0 at home

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Everton

– Everton’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Everton’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1 (all competitions)

– In Everton’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored in all matches

– In Everton’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred in all matches (in fact, they were all over 3.5 goals)

 

Leeds United

– Leeds latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Leeds latest away match record reads W3 D0 L2 (all competitions)

– In Leeds last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Leeds last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Everton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.06. I am tempted to back this, but am thinking that with Leeds scoring in their last 5 away matches, and Everton conceding in their last 5 home matches, then a high scoring match is likely, possibly a draw. In this situation I would look at other markets, particularly BTTS and Over/Under 2.5.

 

Over / Under 2.5.

Looking at this market, backing ‘overs’ seems to offer relatively good value from a trading perspective at around 1.68 – (BTTS Yes is 1.58)

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘overs’ at 1.75+ shortly after the start for 2.5 points. Neither team are prolific early scorers, so even 1.8-1.9 could be achievable to maximize value.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the small loss, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of further goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of more than 2 goals in the second-half, or

– If neither team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of a further goal in the second-half

Pre-Match Analysis

League: PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CRYSTAL PALACE v NEWCASTLE UNITED

Date: 27th November 2020 Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

 

– Crystal Palace have won 2 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches against Newcastle

– In their last 5 home games (all competitions), Crystal Palace have scored just 1 goal in 4 matches)

– Newcastle have lost their last 2 games without scoring (Premier League)

– Newcastle have lost 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– 3 of Newcastle’s last 5 away matches (all competitions) have ended 1-1

– Newcastle have 1 win in their last 7 away matches (beating League 2 side Morecambe in the League Cup)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– In February this year, Crystal Palace won the same fixture 1-0

– Prior to that, the last 5 meetings have resulted in Crystal Palace winning 1, Newcastle winning 2, and 2 draws

– In these last 6 meetings, goals under 2.5 has occurred 6 times, and both teams have scored just once (a 1-1 draw)

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Crystal Palace

– Palace’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Palace’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Palace’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored in 4 matches

– In Palace’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Newcastle

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Newcastle’s latest away match record reads W1 D3 L1 (all competitions)

– In Newcastle’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Trading Markets Considered

Crystal Palace go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.34. I was originally going to recommend a trade on backing Palace, but following news of Zaha still being out due to coronavirus, and the return of Wilson for Newcastle, I have changed my mind.
Zaha is Palace’s top goal-scorer with 5 goals (4 more than any other Palace player). Wilson is Newcastle’s leading scorer with 6 goals (5 more than any other player).
With this taken in to consideration, along with the low scoring history of when these teams meet, and the defensive mind-set of both managers, the Over / Under 2.5 market holds appeal.

 

Over / Under 2.5.

Looking at this market, backing ‘unders’ seems to offer relatively good value from a trading perspective at around 1.7.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.65+ at the start for 2 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or

– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

Further Recommended Trades:

Hedge Trade

With no Zaha, I really can’t see Palace scoring more than 1 goal against a defensive minded Newcastle. However, with the return of top goal-scorer Wilson for Newcastle, it is more likely that if goals were to go over 2.5, then Newcastle could potentially score more than 1.

A hedge position is therefore advised in the correct score market, backing 1-2 @ 17 at the start. 0.15 points would more than cover the under 2.5 position.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: RANGERS v BENFICA

Date: 26th November 2020   Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Rangers have won their last 10 home matches (all competitions)

– Rangers have won 5 of their last 6 matches (UEFA Europa League)

– Rangers have seen over 3.5 goals in their last 3 matches (all competitions). Prior to that, their last 3 matches have all seen under 2.5 goals

– Benfica have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 5 Europa League matches

– Both teams have scored in 4 of Benfica’s last 5 Europa League matches

– Benfica have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– Earlier this month, the game ended in a 3-3 draw. However, it should be noted that in the 19th minute Benfica had a player sent off when they were leading 1-0.

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Rangers

– Rangers latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Rangers latest home match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Rangers last 5 home matches, both teams have scored in zero matches

– In Rangers last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Benfica

– Benfica’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Benfica’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Benfica’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Benfica’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Rangers go in to this match as slight favourites, currently priced at 2.34. Even with their impressive home form however, it is difficult to back them considering the quality of the opposition, which is a big jump up from what they face in the Scottish Premier League.  Benfica though do have a depleted squad for this fixture due to injuries, coronavirus and a suspension (Otamendi in central defence).
With this taken in to consideration, the expectation is that this match will contain goals.

 

Over / Under 2.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘overs’ seems to offer relatively good value from a trading perspective at around 1.7.

 


Entry Point:

With the tendency for both teams to score early, it is advised to take a back position on ‘overs’ at 1.65+ at the start for 2.5 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half

– However, if neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half

 

Pre-Match Analysis

League:UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: BORUSSIA M’GLADBACH v SHAKHTAR DONETSK

Date:25th November 2020Time (GMT):17:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Borussia M’gladbach have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)
– Borussia M’gladbach have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches (all competitions)
– Borussia M’gladbach have not won in their last 2 Bundesliga matches
– Shakhtar Donetsk have seen both teams scoring in 4 of their last 5 away matches
– Shakhtar Donetsk have not lost in their last 5 away matches
– Shakhtar Donetsk have seen 4 of their last 5 away matches having over 2.5 goals

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– Earlier this month, Borussia M’gladbach won the reverse of this fixture 0-6 away

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Borussia M’gladbach

– Borussia M’gladbach’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Borussia M’gladbach’s latest home match record reads W1 D4 L0

– In Borussia M’gladbach’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored in 4

– In Borussia M’gladbach’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

 

Shakhtar Donetsk

– Shakhtar Donetsk’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Shakhtar Donetsk’s latest away match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 4 times once

– In Shakhtar Donetsk’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Trading Markets Considered

Borussia M’gladbach go in to this match as big favourites, priced at just 1.53. However, this price doesn’t hold appeal, since it is anticipated that Shakhtar Donetsk will want to make amends for the 6 goal demolition suffered previously. Therefore, given both teams record of both teams scoring, this market holds better value. 

 

BTTS

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer relatively good value from a trading perspective at around 1.67.

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.7 – 1.75, which should be available less than 10 minutes in to the match, for 2 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a small loss, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the small loss

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half

(b) If Borussia M’gladbach score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Shakhtar Donetsk scoring

– However, if Shakhtar Donetsk don’t appear to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If Shakhtar score in the first-half, this will be showing a decent profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit

– Leave to run further if the home side have been creating chances on the expectation of them also scoring

 

BONUS TRADE:

With Shakhtar’s impressive away record (they also beat Real Madrid 2-3), combined with a less strong Borussia M’gladbach from their last meeting (including Plea, who scored a hatrick last time out), it is fancied opposing a home win holds value.

Predictology are also showing that backing Shakhtar at over 6 holds value.

However, a more conservative trade can be made laying Borussia M’gladbach at the start for 1.53 for 0.5 point.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: RENNES v CHELSEA

Date:24th November 2020Time (GMT):17:55

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Rennes have lost 5 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Rennes have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 14 matches (all competitions)

– Rennes have not scored in their previous three matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have won their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have not conceded in their last 4 away matches (all competitions)

– Chelsea have conceded just one goal in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– Earlier this month, Chelsea won the fixture 3-0 at home

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Rennes

– Rennes latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Rennes latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Rennes last 5 matches, both teams have scored just once

– In Rennes last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

 

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W5 D0 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored just once (1-1, against Spurs)

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred four times

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match clear favourites, priced at 1.56. However, this price doesn’t hold enough appeal, and so other markets are looked at for better value.

BTTS

With Chelsea’s impressive record of clean sheets, combined with Rennes lack of goals in their most recent matches, looking at this market, backing ‘No’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 2.14.

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 2.14 (the bottom price range at 2.06 would also be acceptable) at the start for 1 point.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Rennes not scoring (it is expected Chelsea will score)

(b) If Chelsea score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing a small loss, leading to:

– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Rennes not scoring

– This position could also be increased by 0.5 point at a favourable price if Rennes are lacking good chances

– However, if Rennes appear to be creating chances, then this should be closed

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: LIVERPOOL v LEICESTER CITY

Date: 22nd November 2020    Time (GMT):19:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 matches

– Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 63 home matches

– Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 6 matches against Leicester

– Leicester have won their last 6 matches

– Leicester have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these two teams played resulted in 0-4 away win for Liverpool in December last year

– Prior to that, Liverpool have won four with one draw

– In the last five matches played, goals over 2.5 with both teams scoring has occurred 4 times

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Liverpool

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Liverpool’s latest home match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

Leicester City

– Leicester’s latest match record reads W5 D1 L0

– Leicester’s latest away match record reads W5 D0 L0

– In Leicester’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Leicester’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool unsurprisingly go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.91. However, with their injury list including their top-scorer Salah being quarantined, it is more difficult to raise a case for a home win. Instead, other markets look to offer better trading value.

 

Over / Under 2.5

 

Laying ‘overs’ appears to be the market that offers most value, which is currently available at 1.61.


Over / Under 2.5 – Market Entry Point:

 

It is advised to take a lay position on overs at 1.6 – 1.65 before kick-off. A 2 point stake is advised for this trade.

 

Over / Under 2.5 – Market Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If there have been zero goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

(b) If there has been 1 goal scored in the first-half, this will be showing as flat or a slight negative (depending on the goal time), leading to:

– Close the trade for around scratch

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

(c) If there’s more than 1 goal in the first-half, this trade should be closed to minimize losses

 

Hedge Trades

In the correct score market, the following should be backed at the start:

2-1 @ 9.8 for 0.2 points

1-2 @ 16 for 0.1 points

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED v CHELSEA

Date: 21ST November 2020  Time (GMT):12:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Newcastle have won 3 of their last 14 Premier League matches

– Newcastle have won 2 of their last 10 matches against Chelsea (all competitions)

– Chelsea have won 7 of the last 10 matches against Newcastle (all competitions)

– Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 8 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these two teams played resulted in 1-0 win for Newcastle in January this year

– Prior to that, Chelsea won at home 1-0 in October 2019

– Due to the massive team changes since these matches, head-to-head comparisons are not so useful in this context

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Newcastle United

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Newcastle’s latest home match record reads W3 D0 L2

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Newcastle’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Chelsea’s latest away match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 away matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.53. Although it would be tempting to lay them at this price, the fact is that Newcastle in their last three home games have scored against Everton, Manchester United and Burnley.  It is expected for them to score in this match also.

 

BTTS

 

Backing ‘Yes’ appears to be the market that offers most value, which is currently available at 1.88.

A 2 point stake is advised for this trade.


BTTS – Market Entry Point:

 

I expect this price to fall as kick-off time approaches, and so an acceptable price would be 1.8.  If the start price is below this, then it would be better to wait 10 minutes into the match and 1.88+ may be available again.

 

BTTS Market Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Newcastle score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take decent profit

– Left to run slightly further, on the expectation of Chelsea scoring

(b) If Chelsea score first in the first-half, then the position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a profit

– If Newcastle appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If both teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be:

– Left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half.

– If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP Match: COVENTRY CITY v BIRMINGHAM CITY

Date:20th November 2020   Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Coventry have lost 4 of their last 5 matches

– Coventry have seen both teams scoring (BTTS) in 4 of their 5 home matches

– Birmingham have seen BTTS in each of their last 4 matches

– Birmingham have lost their last 2 matches

– Birmingham have won once in their last 5 away matches (against Preston North End)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last time these two teams played was in the FA Cup in February this year, where a 1-1 draw occurred, with Birmingham eventually winning on penalties after extra-time

– The above match followed a 0-0 tie where Coventry were at ‘home’ (although it should be noted that both teams share the same match ground)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Coventry City

– Coventry’s latest match record reads W1 D0 L4

– Coventry’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Coventry’s last 5 home matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Coventry’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

Birmingham City

– Birmingham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Birmingham’s latest away match record reads W1 D3 L1

– In Birmingham’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In Birmingham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

 

BTTS

With both teams showing a trend of both scoring and conceding goals, ‘Yes’ appears to be the market that offers most value, which is currently available at 1.88.

A 2 point stake is advised for this trade.


BTTS – Market Entry Point:

 

I expect this price to fall as kick-off time approaches, and so an acceptable price would be 1.74.  If the start price is below this, then it would be better to wait 10 minutes in to the game and 1.88+ may be available again.

 

BTTS Market Exit Scenarios:

 

(a) If Coventry score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take decent profit

– Left to run slightly further on the expectation of Birmingham scoring

(b) If Birmingham score first in the first-half, then the position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a profit

– If Coventry appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be:

– left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half.

– If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE   Match:POLAND v NETHERLANDS 

Date: 18th November 2020  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Poland are currently third in their group on 7 points, with Netherlands in second with just one point more. The outcome of this tie will decide the final standing, and even top spot is up for grabs should Italy lose their remaining game

– Poland have not lost their previous 4 home matches, recording 3 wins and a draw (0-0 against Italy)

– The Netherlands have not lost their previous 4 away matches, recording 3 draws and a win

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last meeting between these sides ended in a 1-0 home Netherlands win (UEFA Nations League in September this year)

– Prior to this, the last meeting was a friendly in 2016 where Netherlands defeated Poland 1-2

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Poland

– Poland’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– Poland’s last 4 home matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L0

– In Poland’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match, with 1 match resulting in over 2.5 goals

– Poland’s last match was a 0-2 away loss against Italy (UEFA Nations League)

 

Netherlands

– Netherlands last 5 matches in all competitions reads W1 D3 L1

– Netherlands last 4 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L0

– Netherlands last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– Netherlands last match was a 3-1 home win against Bosnia-Herzegovina (UEFA Nations League)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Both teams should be looking for a win here in order to guarantee at least the second spot in the group. Netherlands go in to this match as favourites (2.02). However, with Poland’s strong home form and Netherlands drawing their last 3 away matches, two trades on separate markets are considered.

1. Match Odds

Netherlands have not won away in their last 3 matches. Combined with the losses of their main goal-keeper (Sillessen), main pair of central defenders (Van Dijk and De Ligt) and centre-halve (De Roon), they will be troubled by a counter-attacking Poland side with arguably the best forward in the world (Lewandowski).

Looking at this market, opposing a ‘Netherlands’ win would seem a decent position to take.

2. BTTS

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ would offer value at around 1.8.

 


Match Odds Entry Point:

It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Netherlands’ at around 2.02 – 2.08 at the start for 1 point. The lower the price taken at, the improved value gained.

 

Match Odds Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Poland score first, then the position can be:

– Closed for a decent profit

– Left to run further, with the expectation that Netherlands will not go on to win

(b) If Netherlands score first, then the position can be:

– Closed immediately to take a loss

– Left open with the expectation that Poland will get at least an equalizer

 

BTTS Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.76 – 1.84 at the start for 1 point. The higher the entry price point, the more value gained. It may be beneficial to wait for the match to begin and take a higher position 10 minutes in. However, if an early goal is scored before placement, an entry opportunity will be missed.

 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Poland score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Netherlands scoring

 

(b) If Netherlands score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit

– If Poland appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

 

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half. If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

 

 

– The Switzerland v Ukraine match has now been called off due to coronavirus

– A new trade recommendation has been given on the Spain v Germany match

 

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE  Match: SPAIN v GERMANY

Date: 17th November 2020            Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Spain have conceded the first goal in six of their previous nine UEFA Nations League matches

– In Spain’s last 5 matches, there have been under 2.5 goals

– Spain need to win this match to win the group, whereas Germany only need one point to retain the top spot

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last two meetings between these sides ended in a 1-1 draw (UEFA Nations League in September this year, and a friendly in 2018)

– Prior to this the previous 3 meetings all resulted in a 0-1 away win (Spain winning two)

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Spain

– Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W1 D3 L1

– Spain’s last 4 home matches in all competitions reads W4 D0 L0

– In Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 2 matches, with all matches resulting in under 2.5 goals

– Spain’s last match was a 1-1 away draw against Switzerland (UEFA Nations League)

 

Germany

– Germany’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D2 L0

– Germany’s last 4 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L0

– Germany’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 4 matches

– Germany’s last match was a 3-1 home win against Ukraine (UEFA Nations League)

Trading Markets Considered

Spain go in to this match as favourites (2.46). However, with Spain managing just a single goal in their last home game against Switzerland, and with Germany expected to keep things tight to grind out the point they need, other markets are considered.

 


Goals Over / Under 2.5

Looking at this market, laying ‘Overs’ would offer value at around 1.73.

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Overs’ at 1.73 at the start for 1 point.

 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there have been zero goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

(b) If there has been 1 goal scored in the first-half, this will be showing as flat or a slight negative (depending on the goal time), leading to:

– Close the trade for around scratch

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

(c) If there’s more than 1 goal in the first-half, this trade should be closed to minimize losses and look for the hedge trades below to recover this

 

Hedge Trades

In the correct score market, the following should be backed at the start:

2-1 @ 10.5 for 0.1 point

1-2 @ 12.5 for 0.1 point

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLAND LEAGUE 1

Match: PLYMOUTH v PORTSMOUTH

Date: 16th November 2020 Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Plymouth are unbeaten in their last 7 home matches

– Plymouth have not beaten Portsmouth in their last 6 meetings

– These two sides have drawn in 4 of their last 6 previous meetings

– Portsmouth are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 away matches

– Portsmouth have not drawn their last 3 away matches at Plymouth

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The last meeting between these sides was in February, 2020, where a 1-1 occurred

– Prior to this in 2018 Portsmouth won 3-0 and a 0-0 result was in 2018

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Plymouth

– Plymouth’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W4 D1 L0

– Plymouth’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W5 D0 L0

– In Plymouth’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 4 matches

– Plymouth’s last match was a 3-1 home win against Newport County (EFL Trophy)

 

Portsmouth

– Portsmouth’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D0 L2

– Portsmouth’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W5 D0 L0

– Portsmouth’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– Portsmouth’s last match was a 0-1 away loss against West Ham United (EFL Trophy)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Portsmouth go in to this match as favourites (2.14). However, they look evenly matched and both have goals in them, so looking at Both Teams To Score looks a better trade to take.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ would be the stand-out market at around 1.75.

 


Entry Point: With both teams having high percentages for scoring in the first 15 minutes, it is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.75 at the start for 2 points.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

1. If Portsmouth score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately

(b) If Plymouth look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

2. If Plymouth score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall substantially and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Portsmouth scoring

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased by 0.5 point at a bigger price.

 

4. If neither teams have scored by 70 minutes and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize losses.

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: BELGIUM v ENGLAND

Date:15th November 2020Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Belgium have scored in their last 23 matches in a row

– Belgium have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 matches

– England have won 7 of their last 9 matches

– England have won 3 of their last 7 away matches

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

– The meeting between the less than a month ago ended in a 2-1 England

– Prior to this in 2018 in World Cup games, Belgium won both meetings 2-0 and 0-1

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Belgium

– Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– Belgium’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W4 D1 L0

– In Belgium’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in all matches

– Belgium’s last match was a 2-1 home win against Switzerland (friendly)

 

 

England

– England’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– England’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– England’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match

– England’s last match was a 3-0 home win against Ireland (friendly)

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Belgium go in to this match as favourites (2.38). However, with a score-draw quite probable, the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) should be considered.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.82.

 


Entry Point: With Belgium scoring 30% of their goals in the first 15 minutes, it is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.82 at the start for 1 point.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

1. If Belgium score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(a) A small profit can be taken immediately

(b) If England look likely to score, wait until later for greater profit

 

2. If England score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall substantially and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(a) Keep the position open on the expectation of Belgium scoring

(b) Close the trade for a decent profit

 

3. If no team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then the position should be left open. Additionally, for increased risk yet greater profit, the position could be increased by 0.5 point at a bigger price.

4. If neither teams have scored by half-time and neither seem to be searching for a goal, then the position should be closed to minimize losses.

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: PORTUGAL v FRANCE

Date: 14th November 2020

Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Portugal have won their last 7 competitive home matches

– Portugal have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches including friendlies

– France have lost 1 of their last 13 matches

– France have won 5 of their last 7 matches (UEFA Nations League)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – In their last meeting just over a month ago, the clash ended in a 0-0 draw

– Prior to this, the last time these sides met was in 2016 (Euros), where Portugal won 1-0

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Portugal

– Portugal’s last 5 matches reads W1 D2 L2

– Portugal’s last 4 home matches reads W3 D1 L0

– Portugal’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring 0 times (including 0-0 results with both France and Spain)

– Portugal’s last match was a 7-0 home win against Andorra (friendly)

 

France

– France’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W3 D1 L1

– France’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W5 D0 L0

– In France’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– In the last 5 away matches, France have scored at least 1 goal in all matches

– France’s last match was a 0-2 home loss against Finland

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Portugal go in to this match as favourites. Ronaldo should be starting for Portugal, however Mbappe (France’s key striker) remains doubtful for France with a hamstring injury.

 


Match Odds

Looking at this market, backing ‘Portugal’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at 2.36 (with the price coming down from a high of 2.96).

 


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘Portugal’ at around 2.36 at the start for 1 pt.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Portugal score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade should be:

– Closed to take the profit

(b) If France score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade for a loss

– If Portugal appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will likely show a small negative (depending on the chances being created). However, with Portugal scoring 67% of their goals in the second-half, it should be left open.

 

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match: SWITZERLAND v SPAIN

Date: 14th November 2020 Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats:

  • Switzerland have conceded in their last 7 matches
  • Switzerland have won 0 of their last 5 matches
  • Switzerland have seen under 2.5 in 2 of their last 3 matches (UEFA Nations League)
  • Spain have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away matches (all competitions)
  • Spain have drawn 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – The last time these sides met less than a month ago, Spain won 1-0

– Prior to that was in 2018 in a friendly, which ended in a 1-1 draw

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Switzerland

– Switzerland’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D2 L3

– Switzerland’s last 3 home matches in all competitions reads W1 D1 L1

– 4 of Switzerland’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– Switzerland’s last match was a 2-1 away loss against Belgium

 

Spain

– Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W2 D2 L1

– Spain’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W0 D4 L1

– In Spain’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 1 match

– In the last 5 away matches, Spain have conceded a goal 4 times and scored at least 1 goal in 3 matches

– Spain’s last match was a 1-1 away draw against Netherlands in a friendly

 

Trading Markets Considered

Spain go in to this match as favourites, but have failed to win in their last 5 away matches. All of these matches also resulted in under 2.5 goals.


Over / Under 2.5

Looking at this market, backing ‘unders’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.92.


Entry Point: It is advised to take a back position on ‘unders’ at 1.92 at the start for 1 pt.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there have been zero goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half

(b) If there has been 1 goal scored in the first-half, this will be showing as flat or a slight negative (depending on the goal time), leading to:

– Close the trade for around scratch

– Leave open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

(c) If there’s more than 1 goal in the first-half, this trade should be closed to minimize losses

Hedge Trades

In the correct score market, the following should be backed at the start:

2-1 @ 17 for 0.1 point

1-2 @ 10 for 0.25 point

______________________________________________________________

 

Trade Of The Day

Pre-Match Analysis

League: ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO Match: BOLTON v SALFORD CITY
Date: 13th November 2020 Time (GMT): 19:45

Key Match Stats:

– Bolton have drawn 4 of their last 7 matches (League Two)

– Bolton’s Nathan Delfouneso has scored 4 goals in his last 4 home matches (all competitions)

– Salford have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

 

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 – These teams have not played each other previously

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Bolton

– Bolton’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W1 D2 L2

– Bolton’s last 5 home matches in all competitions reads W1 D2 L2

– 3 of Bolton’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– Bolton’s last match was a 2-3 home loss against Crewe Alexandra (FA Cup)

 

 

Salford

– Salford’s last 5 matches in all competitions reads W0 D3 L2

– Salford’s last 5 away matches in all competitions reads W3 D0 L2

– In Salford’s last 5 matches in all competitions, both teams have scored in 3 matches

– 3 of Salford’s last 5 matches resulted in both teams scoring

– In the last 5 away matches, Salford have scored at least 1 goal in 4 matches

– Salford’s last match was a 1-2 away win against Rochdale in the EFL Trophy

 

 

Trading Markets Considered

Salford go in to this match as favourites. However, Salford have conceded in 3 of their last away fixtures. With certain key players returning for Bolton, their record of scoring at home looks to continue.

 


Both Teams To Score

Looking at this market, backing ‘Yes’ seems to offer good value from a trading perspective at around 1.9.

 


Entry Point: Both teams having fairly high percentages for goals scored in the first 15 minutes of a match (22.2% and 18.8% respectively). It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.9 at the start for 1 pt.

 


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Bolton score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a profit. Therefore, the trade can either be:

– Closed to take the profit

– Left to run further on the expectation of Salford scoring

(b) If Salford score first in the first-half, this position will be showing a small profit, leading to:

– Close the trade for a small profit

– If Bolton appear to be creating chances, then this should be left open on the expectation of them scoring.

(c) If there are no goals by half-time, this trade will be showing a negative. If teams have been pressing for goals and both had shots on target, this should be left open with the expectation of goals to come in the second-half. If this is not the case, then the position should be closed to minimise the loss.

 

 

Pro Trader – Historical Trades

This page contains all the previously advised daily trades from Pro Trader.

Who Is Pro Trader?

ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial instruments, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on sports trading apps and e-commerce. He lives with his wife and young daughter between their homes of London, Sardinia, Odessa and Sochi.  In his spare time, he is writing a book, enjoys outdoor pursuits with his family, learning Russian and of course, trading football markets.

 


Snap-Shot of the Trading Week (so far)

 

 

 

Historical Trades

League: ITALIAN SERIE A

Match: FIORENTINA v CAGLIARI

Date: 10th January 2021   Time (GMT):17:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Fiorentina have lost once in their last 5 home matches (Serie A)

– Fiorentina haven’t conceded more than 1 goal in their last 5 home matches (Serie A)

– Fiorentina have scored nearly 30% of their goals in the first 15 minutes of matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari haven’t won in their last 5 away matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari have conceded 1 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 away matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari haven’t won any of their last 6 matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari will be missing up to 8 players due to injury, suspension and Covid-19

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in July last year, where a 0-0 draw resulted

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Fiorentina

– Fiorentina’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Fiorentina’s latest home match record reads W0 D4 L1

– In Fiorentina’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Fiorentina’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Fiorentina have scored an average of 1 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Cagliari

– Cagliari’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Cagliari’s latest away match record reads W0 D2 L3

– In Cagliari’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Cagliari’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Cagliari have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.12

 

Trading Markets Considered

Fiorentina go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.8, whereas Cagliari are 5.2, with the draw 3.95.

Cagliari are notoriously bad travellers, and score more goals and concede less when at home in Sardinia. Combined with several missing key players due to suspension, injury and Covid quarantine, a Fiorentina home win here looks the value call.

 

Match Odds

Backing ‘Fiorentina’ makes most appeal at a decent price of 1.8. Predictology and Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 1.78.

 


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on Fiorentina at 1.8+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Fiorentina score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Fiorentina maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Cagliari score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Fiorentina equalizing and coming back, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(bii) If Cagliari score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

 

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Fiorentina scoring in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: ARSENAL v NEWCASTLE UNITED

Date: 9th January 2021  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– In the last 3 meetings between these sides, Newcastle have failed to score (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won their last 3 matches, and conceded just 1 goal (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won to nil in their last 2 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won 14 of their last 15 matches against Newcastle (Premier League)

– Newcastle have lost 4 of their last 6 matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have scored 1 goal in their last 4 matches (all competitions)

– Newcastle have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in February last year, where Arsenal won 4-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, in the last 4 meetings Arsenal have won 3, Newcastle have won 1

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Arsenal (all competitions)

– Arsenal’s latest match record reads W3 D0 L2

– Arsenal’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Arsenal’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Arsenal have scored an average of 1.12 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.38

 

Newcastle United

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Newcastle’s latest away match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Newcastle’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Newcastle’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Newcastle have scored an average of 1.14 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.57

 

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as huge favourites, currently priced at just 1.32, whereas Newcastle are 11.5, with the draw 6.2.

Whilst I do favour Arsenal to win this match, I do not favour their low price. With Newcastle failing to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches, and Arsenal having the 4th tightest defence in the Premier League, the BTTS market makes most appeal here.

BTTS

Backing ‘No’ makes most appeal at a decent price of 1.82.


Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position at 1.8+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Left to run further on the expectation of Newcastle not scoring (it is expected Arsenal will score)

(b) If Arsenal score first in the first-half (as expected), this position will be showing as flat/ slightly negative, leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Newcastle not scoring
– However, if Newcastle unexpectedly appear to be creating chances, then this should be closed

 

 

League: ENGLISH FA CUP

Match: WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS v CRYSTAL PALACE

Date: 8th January 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Wolves have not conceded in their last 2 home matches against Crystal Palace (Premier League)

– Wolves have lost just once in their last 7 home matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have won just once in their last 6 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 4 of their last 7 away matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in October (last year), where Wolves won 2-0 (Premier League)

– Prior to this, in the last 4 meetings Wolves have won 2, Crystal Palace 1, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Wolves

– Wolves latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Wolves latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Wolves last 5 home matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Wolves last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred once

– Wolves have scored an average of 1.12 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Crystal Palace

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record reads W1 D2 L2

– Crystal Palace’s latest away match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Crystal Palace’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Crystal Palace have scored an average of 1.38 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.75

 

Trading Markets Considered

Wolves go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.18, whereas Crystal Palace are 3.95, with the draw 3.4.

Considering the last 5 matches between these sides have produced under 2.5 goals and both teams to score ‘No’ 4 times, another low-scoring match is anticipated.

However, looking at under 2.5 goals is 1.72, with BTTS ‘No’ at 1.93. Therefore, in this instance the match odds market backing Wolves makes more appeal at the bigger price (2.18).

Match Odds

Backing ‘Wolves’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.18.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Wolves’ at 2.18 looks a decent value entry point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.16+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Wolves score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Wolves maintaining the lead for greater profit

 

(bi) If Crystal Palace score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Wolves equalizing, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Crystal Palace score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Wolves scoring in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 6th January 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was less than a month ago, where a 0-0 draw played out (Premier League)

– Manchester United have scored the second highest number of Premier League goals so far this season (33)

– Manchester United are undefeated in their last 7 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester City have conceded the fewest goals so far in the Premier League (13)

– Manchester City have failed to score in their last 3 matches against Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester City haven’t lost in their last 11 matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was less than a month ago, where a 0-0 draw played out (Premier League)

– Prior to this, in the last 4 meetings Manchester United have won 3, with Manchester City winning 1

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 home matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.33 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1.44

 

Manchester City

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester City’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Manchester City have scored an average of 1.25 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.75

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1, whereas Manchester United are 3.7, with the draw 3.85. Again, being a semi-final this will be a tight affair, with a draw likely at full-time (0-0 or 1-1).

Also, considering the last 3 matches between these sides have produced under 2.5 goals and both teams to score ‘No’, a low-scoring match is expected.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is 2.24, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2.42.

Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.24.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘under 2.5’ at 2.24 looks a decent value entry point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.2+ at the start for 3.5 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

Match: TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v BRENTFORD

Date: 5th January 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score ‘No’, in all of their last 6 home matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have won 7 of their last 8 home matches (all competitions)

– Tottenham have won 4 of their last 5 home cup ties (League Cup)

– Brentford have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 away matches (Championship)

– Brentford have scored an average of 1.64 away goals, whilst conceding 0.91 (Championship)

– Brentford haven’t scored a goal in the first 30 minutes of a match (League Cup)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in the League Cup over 20 years ago, where Tottenham won 2-0

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Tottenham (all competitions)

– Tottenham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Tottenham’s latest home match record reads W4 D0 L2

– In Tottenham’s last 5 home matches, both teams to score has occurred zero times

– In Tottenham’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Tottenham have scored an average of 1.62 home goals this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Brentford

– Brentford’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Brentford’s latest away match record reads W4 D1 L0

– In Brentford’s last 5 away matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Brentford’s last 5 away matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Brentford have scored an average of 1.64 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.91

 

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as firm favourites, currently priced at 1.47, whereas Brentford are 8.6, with the draw 4.8. With Tottenham’s strong home form and record for clean sheets, a Tottenham win is hard to oppose. However, the price in this market doesn’t appeal for a straight trade recommendation. Considering 3 of Tottenham’s last 6 home matches have ended 2-0, this score-line looks most likely here.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is 2.22, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2. The half-time/full-time market also appeals for Tottenham/Tottenham at 2.3.

With this match being a semi-final, it is expected a tighter cagier game will be played by both sides.

 

Under 2.5

Backing ‘Unders’ makes most appeal at a value price of 2.22, combined with a small hedge position in the correct score market (3-0).


 

Entry Point:

Backing ‘under 2.5’ at 2.22 looks a decent value entry point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.2+ at the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half, or for the hedge position to come in to play

 

Hedge Trade

With it expected Tottenham will keep a clean-sheet here, the score-line most likely to prevent this trade is 3-0. It is therefore advised to take a back position on 3-0 for 0.3 points at 12.5 (current price). This would more than cover the stake of the main trade.

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: SOUTHAMPTON v LIVERPOOL

Date: 4th January 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Southampton have drawn 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Southampton have seen under 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Liverpool have scored 1 goal or less in 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have drawn 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 away matches (all competitions)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these sides met was in February 2020, where Liverpool won 4-0
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Liverpool have won on all occasions

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Southampton

– Southampton’s latest match record reads W1 D3 L1

– Southampton’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred just once

– In Southampton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred just once

– Southampton have scored an average of 1.62 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.12

 

Liverpool

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L0

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W1 D4 L0

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Liverpool have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.65, whereas Southampton are 5.7, with the draw 4.5. Although a Liverpool win looks likely, the amount of away draws they have had causes concern. Southampton have also drawn 3 of their last 4 matches.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is a relatively high 2.82, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2.62. Considering the low-scoring stats from both teams recently, playing the under market appeals. However, for slightly less risk the under 3.5 market gives an extra goal protection.

Over / Under 3.5

Backing unders makes most appeal at a decent price of 1.77.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘under 3.5’ at 1.77 looks a decent value entry point.

It is advised to take a back position at 1.75+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 4 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 3 goals in the second-half, or

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a slightly negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half

– If 2 goals have been scored before the 30 minute mark, then close the trade

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA v MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 3rd January 2021   Time (GMT):16:30

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time this fixture was played was in June 2020, where Chelsea won 2-1
– Chelsea have drawn 2 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)
– Chelsea have 1 win in their last 5 matches (Premier League)
– Manchester City have drawn 2 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)
– Manchester City have drawn 3 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time this fixture was played was in June 2020, where Chelsea won 2-1
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Chelsea have won 1, Manchester City 2, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W2 D3 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Chelsea have scored an average of 2.25 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1

 

Manchester City

– Manchester City’s latest match record reads W3 D2 L0

– Manchester City’s latest away match record reads W2 D2 L0

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred twice

– In Manchester City’s last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Manchester City have scored an average of 1 away goal this season, whilst conceding 0.71

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.32, whereas Chelsea are 3.3, with the draw 3.7.
Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is currently 2.14, with BTTS ‘No’ at 2.38.
Whilst tempted to take the fresher Manchester City to win at a decent price, a tight draw here looks likely. Therefore, I will be looking at the under 2.5 goals market for best value.

Over / Under 2.5

Backing unders makes most appeal at 2.14. Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value, with Predictology high-lighting under 3.5 as value at 1.41.

 

 


Entry Point:

Backing ‘under 2.5’ at 2.14 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.1+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BRIGHTON v WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS

Date: 2nd January 2021   Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last 3 meetings between these sides has resulted in a draw (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 home matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen both teams scoring in 3 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have drawn 4 of their last 6 home matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have lost their last 3 away matches (Premier League)

– Wolves have scored a single goal or less in 5 of their last away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in March last year, where a 0-0 played out
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Brighton have won 2 and there has been 2 draws

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Brighton

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W0 D3 L2

– Brighton’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Brighton’s have scored an average of 0.88 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Wolves

– Wolves latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Wolves latest away match record reads W1 D0 L4

– In Wolves last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Wolves last 5 matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Wolves have scored an average of 1.86 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.43

 

Trading Markets Considered

Brighton go in to this match as slight favourites, currently priced at 2.7, whereas Wolves are 3.15, with the draw also 3.15.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is currently a low 1.52, with BTTS ‘No’ at 1.76.

Whilst I do expect this match to have under 2.5 goals, the price doesn’t appeal. Wolves were hard done by in their last match against Manchester United, where they conceded late on via a deflection. Therefore, their back price of 3.15 looks decent.

Match Odds

Backing Wolves makes most appeal at 3.15. Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as high-value.

 

 


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Wolves’ at 3.15 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 3+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Wolves score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit

 

(bi) If Brighton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Wolves equalizing, or

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(bii) If Brighton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Wolves scoring in the second-half

Hedge Trade

The most probable score-line that would prevent this trade is 1-1. Therefore, it is advised to take a back position in the correct score market as follows:

Back 1-1 @ 7 (0.5 pts would mostly cover any loss on the main trade)

 

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v ASTON VILLA

Date:1st January 2021   Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

–  Manchester United have won 7 of their last 9 matches (Premier League)

–  Manchester United have won 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Manchester United have won 3 of their last 4 home matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have scored just 1 goal in 3 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa boast the second fewest goals conceded in the Premier League (14)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in a friendly in January this year, where Aston Villa won 1-0
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Manchester United have won 3 and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Manchester United (all competitions)

– Manchester United’s latest match record reads W4 D1 L0

– Manchester United’s latest home match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Manchester United’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Manchester United have scored an average of 1.25 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.5

 

Aston Villa 

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W2 D2 L1

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W3 D1 L1

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred once

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 away matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.86 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.43

 

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.82, whereas Villa are 4.5, with the draw 4.2. As with recent upsets, a 1-1 here is predicted at best… not a goal fest.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is currently a decent 2.6, with BTTS ‘Yes’ at 1.6.

It should be noted that 11 out of the last 15 Premier League matches in this busy schedule have had under 2.5 goals.

Aston Villa have the second leanest defence in the league, this can’t be over-looked especially with Cavani missing through suspension. Again, goals under 2.5 looks a good entry position at this high price.

 

 

Over / Under 2.5

The under 2.5 goals market therefore makes most appeal at 2.6.

 

 


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.6 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.54+ at the start for 3 points.

Predictology and Infogol are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 2.46.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

Trade Of The Day – Historical Summaries

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED v LIVERPOOL

Date: 30th December 2020    Time (GMT):20:00

 

Key Match Stats Summary:

– Newcastle have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– In Newcastle’s last 5 home games, they have conceded in every match (Premier League)

– Newcastle have recorded the second lowest number of shots on target (46 – Premier League)

– Liverpool have scored 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have had a 1-1 draw in 4 of their last 5 away matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have recorded the highest number of shots on target (97 – Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in July this year, where Liverpool won 1-3 away
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Liverpool have won all matches

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Newcastle United

– Newcastle’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Newcastle’s latest home match record reads W2 D1 L2

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 3 times

– In Newcastle’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Newcastle have scored an average of 1.29 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.86

 

Liverpool

– Liverpool’s latest match record reads W2 D3 L0

– Liverpool’s latest away match record reads W1 D4 L0

– In Liverpool’s last 5 matches, both teams to score has occurred 4 times

– In Liverpool’s last 5 away matches, under 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Liverpool have scored an average of 2.29 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.71

 

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as massive favourites, currently priced at 1.32, whereas Newcastle are 11.5, with the draw 6.2. The back price on Liverpool does not appeal in the slightest, and I will probably lay them from the beginning before trading out.

Looking at other markets, under 2.5 goals is currently a decent 2.86, with BTTS ‘Yes’ at 1.97.

Looking at yesterday’s Premier League fixtures, 4 of the 5 produced under 2.5, with all of them having BTTS ‘No’. I think this is significant in the busy fixture schedule, with the amount of games beginning to take it’s toll.

 

Considering 4 of Liverpool’s last 5 away games has ended 1-1 (this is currently priced at 14), the unders market looks to offer good value.

 

Over / Under 2.5

The under 2.5 goals market therefore makes most appeal at 2.86.

 

 


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.86 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.8+ at the start for 2 points.

Predictology are also high-lighting this selection as high-value at 2.57.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

HEDGE TRADE

With the main above trade anticipating a low-scoring match, I’m going to take a small hedge position on the correct score market:

Back 1-2 @ 10 for 0.25 points, which would more than cover the main trade.

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST BROMWICH ALBION v LEEDS UNITED

Date:29th December 2020  Time (GMT):18:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met ended in a 1-1 draw (Championship
– West Brom have won just 1 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)
– West Brom have seen BTTS in 1 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)
– West Brom have scored just 2 goals (total) in their last 5 home matches (Premier League)
– Leeds have scored just 1 goal in 3 of their last 5 away matches (Premier League)
– Leeds have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 away matches (Premier League)
– Leeds have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in January this year in the Championship, where a 1-1 draw played out
– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, West Brow have won 2 and Leeds 2

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Brom

– West Brom’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– West Brom’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In West Brom’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In West Brom’s last 5 home matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– West Brom have scored an average of 0.71 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 2.14

 

Leeds United

– Leeds’ latest match record reads W2 D1 L1

– Leeds’ latest away match record reads W2 D0 L3

– In Leeds’ last 5 away matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Leeds’ last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– Leeds have scored an average of 1.71 away goals this season, whilst conceding 2.43

 

Trading Markets Considered

Leeds United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1, whereas West Brom are 3.65, with the draw 3.9.

With Sam Allardyce taking over recently at West Brom, he is sure to tighten things up defensively.  This was evident with their last match against Liverpool, where they came away with a 1-1 draw. This will be a tighter game than expected by the markets, and for that reason the under 2.5 goals market appeals. Also, with the frantic fixtures recently, tiredness must surely be creeping in, again lowering the amount of goals scored.

Over / Under 2.5

The under 2.5 goals market appeals at 2.34.

Predictology and Infogol are also highlighting this selection as high-value.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.34 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.3+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: CHELSEA v ASTON VILLA

Date: 28th December 2020   Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met ended in a 1-2 away win for Chelsea

– Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have won their last 6 matches against Aston Villa (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 4 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have not conceded a goal in their last 4 matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in June this year, where Chelsea won 1-2 away

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Chelsea have won all matches

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Chelsea

– Chelsea’s latest match record reads W1 D1 L3

– Chelsea’s latest home match record reads W3 D2 L0

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Chelsea’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Chelsea have scored an average of 2.43 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.0

 

Aston Villa

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W3 D1 L1

– Aston Villa’s latest away match record reads W4 D0 L1

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored just once

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 2 away goals this season, whilst conceding 0.33

 

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.77, whereas Aston Villa are 4.9, with the draw 4.2. Laying Chelsea appeals here, however looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is currently 1.62, and BTTS Yes is 1.62.

 

This will be a tighter game than expected by the markets, and for that reason the under 2.5 goals market appeals.

 

Over / Under 2.5

Aston Villa have conceded the second least goals in the Premier League, with just 13 (Manchester City are leaders on 12). Predictology are also highlighting this selection as high-value.


 

Entry Point:

Backing ‘Unders’ at 2.6 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.5+ at the start for 3 points.


 

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:

– Close the trade to take the profit, or

– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

 

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or

– If either team appears to be creating good chances, then this should be closed

 

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match:WEST HAM v BRIGHTON Date:27th December 2020    Time (GMT):14:15

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met ended in a 3-3 draw

– West Ham have won 4 of their last 7 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 home matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have lost 3 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 away matches (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in February this year, where a 3-3 draw resulted

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Westh Ham have won 0, Brighton 2, and there has been 2 draws

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

West Ham United

– West Ham’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– West Ham’s latest home match record reads W2 D2 L1

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 4 times

– In West Ham’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 4 times

– West Ham have scored an average of 1.43 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.36

 

Brighton

– Brighton’s latest match record reads W0 D2 L3

– Brighton’s latest away match record reads W0 D3 L2

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored 3 times

– In Brighton’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred twice

– Brighton have scored an average of 1.29 away goals this season, whilst conceding 1.57

 

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.42, whereas Brighton are 3.25, with the draw 3.5. 

Looking at other markets, over 2.5 goals is currently 2.06, and BTTS Yes is 1.81.

Match Odds

David Moyes is the most experienced Manager in the Premier League, and possibly the most astute. He will win this match against a struggling Brighton side.


Entry Point:

Backing ‘West Ham’ at 2.42 looks a decent value trade entry price point.

It is advised to take a back position at 2.4+ at the start for 3 points.


Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham extending / maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Brighton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and scoring further, or

– If the score is still 1-0 by 70 mins, close the trade

(bii) If Brighton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring in the second-half

 

 

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: ASTON VILLA v CRYSTAL PALACE

Date: 26th December 2020  Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match Stats Summary:

– The last time these two sides played this fixture, Aston Villa won 2-0

– Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet in their last 3 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost 2 of their last 4 away matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have lost to nil in their last 8 league defeats (Premier League)

Previous Head to Head Summary:

 

– The last time these two sides met was in July this year, where Aston Villa won 2-0

– Prior to this in their last 4 meetings, Aston Villa have won 1, Crystal Palace 2, and there has been 1 draw

 

Team Form (last 5 matches):

Aston Villa

– Aston Villa’s latest match record reads W2 D1 L2

– Aston Villa’s latest home match record reads W1 D1 L3

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, both teams have scored twice

– In Aston Villa’s last 5 matches, over 2.5 goals has occurred 3 times

– Aston Villa have scored an average of 2 goals at home this season, whilst conceding 1.08

 

Crystal Palace

– Crystal Palace’s latest match record