Pro Trader – Historical Trades

This page contains all the previously advised daily trades from Pro Trader

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Who Is Pro Trader?

ProTrader started his career and fascination with the financial markets as an Index Analyst at FTSE in 2000.  He has since consulted for 15 years for some of the top Financial Institutions and Investment Banks in the world, where he specialized in financial products, pricing data, trading platforms and risk management solutions.  He first started trading sports markets in early 2000, after the introduction and discovery of Betfair. He now trades the financial markets whilst working on entrepreneurial ventures with a focus on new business start-ups, sports trading apps and e-commerce.


>>> You can access the full historical trading performance summary here


The Trading Snapshot of the Week (and the year so far…)

Historical Trades

League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: WATFORD v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Date: 1st JANUARY 2022  Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in August this year, where Tottenham won 1-0 (PRL)

– Watford have recorded W0 L5 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Watford have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Watford have seen both teams to score in all of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.64, Watford at 5.9, with the draw at 4.5.

Tottenham currently sit 7th in the PRL on 30 points  after 17 matches. Watford are 17th with 13 points after 17 matches played.

Watford are currently 14th best in the league in terms of home xG, with 1.37. Tottenham are 12th for away matches with 1.25.

In terms of xGA Watford are 3rd worst placed for home games with 1.69. Tottenham have the 5th best record for away games with 1.49.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Watford have averaged 1.22 whilst conceding 2.33 at home – scoring less and conceding more than expected.

Tottenham have averaged 0.86 goals, whilst conceding 1.43 goals for away matches – scoring and conceding more than their xG/A metrics.

In terms of absentees or injuries, Watford are set to be without several key players, including Ismaila Sarr (5 goals), Danny Rose, Tom Cleverly and goal-keeper Ben Foster.

Tottenham will be without Steven Bergwijn, Christian Romero and left-back Ryan Sessegnon.

Watford have issues in defence and have leaked 15 goals in their last 5 matches, and have failed to keep a clean-sheet in their 17 matches.

Tottenham have improved considerably from their early season woes, and now under new manager Conte they have found decent goal-scoring form, and have scored 2+ goals in their last 5 of their last 6 PRL matches. Harry Kane’s early barren run also seems to have turned around, and he has scored in their last 3 matches.

With Tottenham’s positive regression, the back price looks good value at 1.64 for an outright Tottenham win against a struggling Watford. However, Watford have scored in all of their last 5 matches, and seen over 2.5 goals in each. The back price on over 2.5 goals is marginally higher at 1.69.

Therefore the recommendation is to look at the Asian Handicap market and back ‘Tottenham (-1)’ at a decent value price of 2.05 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Asian Handicap – Tottenham (-1)

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Tottenham (-1)’ at 2.05+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Tottenham score first, this trade will be in a profit position, leading to:

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Tottenham extending the lead for full profit

(bi) If Watford score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Tottenham equalizing and coming back with a further goal

(bii) If  Watford score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Tottenham coming back with 2 goals

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run on the expectation of Tottenham scoring first in the second-half (which will lead to a break even scenario), and following up with a second for full profit


League: SPANISH LA LIGA (LAL)

Match: VALENCIA v ESPANYOL

Date: 31st DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):15:15

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July last year, where Valencia won 1-0 (LAL)

– Valencia have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Valencia have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Valencia have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Espanyol have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Espanyol have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Espanyol have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

Trading Markets Considered

Valencia go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.88, Espanyol at 4.8, with the draw at 3.8.

Valencia currently sit 7th in the LAL on 28 points  after 18 matches. Espanyol are 11th with 23 points after 18 matches played.

Valencia are currently 11th best in the league in terms of home xG, with 1.43. Espanyol are 10th for away matches with 1.24.

In terms of xGA Valencia are 4th worst placed for home games with 1.53. Espanyol have the 7th worst record for away games with 1.64.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Valencia have averaged 1.78 whilst conceding 1.11 at home – scoring more and conceding less than anticipated.

Espanyol have averaged 0.67 goals, whilst conceding 1.56 goal for away matches – scoring less and conceding more than their xG/A metrics.

In terms of absentees or injuries, Valencia are set to be without defender Paulista due to injury and midfielder Racic (suspension).

Espanyol will be without Lopez in defence, with striker Dimata and defender Gil both fitness doubts.

Valencia have proved strong at home, having lost just 1 of their 9 matches (against Real Madrid). They have however drawn 4, but it should be noted that these have been mostly against teams in the top half of the table. Valencia have also scored in all of their home matches.

Espanyol have been poor away, having lost 6 and drawn 3 of their 9. They have also failed to score in 5 of these, and kept just 1 clean-sheet away.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Valencia to Win’ at a decent value price of 1.88 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Match Odds – Valencia

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Valencia’ at 1.88+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Valencia score first as anticipated, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Valencia maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Espanyol score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Valencia equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Espanyol score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Valencia coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly negative, leading to:

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Valencia scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v BURNLEY

Date: 30th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where Manchester United won 3-1 (PRL)

– Manchester United have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Burnley have recorded W0 L1 D4 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Burnley have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Burnley have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.38, Burnley at 10, with the draw at 5.5.

Manchester United currently sit 7th in the PRL on 28 points  after 17 matches. Burnley are 18th, in the relegation zone with 11 points after just 15 matches played.

Manchester United are currently 5th best in the league in terms of home xG, with 1.81. Burnley are 5th worst for away matches with 0.96.

In terms of xGA Manchester United are 9th best placed for home games with 1.43. Burnley have the leagues worst record for away games with 2.03.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Manchester United have averaged 1.75 whilst conceding 1.62 at home – conceding slightly more and scoring slightly less than anticipated. Burnley have averaged 0.75 goals, whilst conceding 1.62 goal for away matches – slightly better than expected for conceding, although not scoring as many as expected.

In terms of absentees or injuries, Manchester United continue to be without Pogba and will also be without Fernandes (suspension) and Lindelof (Covid).

Burnley will be without Barnes and Roberts, although their top-goalscorer Cornet should make a welcome return from injury.

Burnley haven’t played since December 12th (0-0 with West Ham) due Covid related postponements. Manchester United last played 3 days ago, where they drew 1-1 away to Newcastle.

Manchester United have tightened up since interim manager Rangnick took over, and 4 of their last 5 matches have seen under 2.5 goals, as the team adapt to a new system. Burnley have failed to score in their last 3 matches, and 4 of their last 5 have seen under 2.5 goals scored.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at a decent value price of 2.36 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Under 2.5 Goals

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.36+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match:CHELSEA v BRIGHTON

Date: 29th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where the sides drew 0-0 (PRL)

– Chelsea have recorded W2 L1 D2 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Chelsea have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Brighton have recorded W1 L1 D3 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in none of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Brighton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.44, Brighton at 9.2, with the draw at 4.9.

Chelsea currently sit 3rd in the PRL level on 41 points with 2nd placed Liverpool after 19 matches. Brighton are 11th with 23 points after 17 matches played.

Chelsea are currently 3rd best in the league in terms of home xG, with a decent 2.15, with Brighton 13th best for away matches with 1.16.

In terms of xGA Chelsea are 3rd best placed for home games with 0.99. Brighton have the 4th best record for away games with 1.36.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Chelsea have averaged 2.44, whilst conceding 0.78 at home – conceding less and scoring more goals than anticipated. Brighton have averaged 1 goal, whilst conceding 1 goal for away matches – slightly better than expected for conceding, although not scoring as many as expected.

In terms of absentees or injuries, Chelsea will be without Silva, Kante, Chilwell (injury) as well as Havertz and Werner (Covid).

Brighton have concerns with Trossard, Dunk, Sarmiento and Veltman through injury, although Bissouma will make a welcome return from suspension.

Chelsea have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 PRL matches. whilst Brighton have scored in 4 of their last 5 PRL away matches.

With Chelsea’s key absentees, Brighton should be hopeful of getting on the score sheet here.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent value price of 2.26 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2.26+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Chelsea score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Brighton are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Brighton score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Chelsea scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or​

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: WATFORD v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 28th DECEMBER 202  1Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  July last year, where West Ham won 3-1 (PRL)

– Watford have recorded W1 L4 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Watford have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Watford have seen both teams to score in all of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have recorded W1 L2 D2 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.24, Watford at 3.5, with the draw at 3.7.

Watford currently sit 17th in the PRL just above the relegation zone with 13 points after 16 matches. West Ham are 6th with 28 points after 18 matches played.

Watford are currently 5th worst in the league in terms of home xG, on 1.2, with West Ham 4th best for away matches with 1.65.

In terms of xGA Watford are 2nd worst placed for home games with 1.66. West Ham have the 7th best record for away games with 1.57.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Watford have averaged 1.25, whilst conceding 2.12 at home – conceding more goals than anticipated. West Ham have averaged 1.33, whilst conceding 1 goal for away matches – slightly better than expected for conceding, although not scoring as many as expected.

In terms of absentees or injuries, Watford should have a number of players back in contention following a spell of Covid in the camp.  However their 2nd joint top-goalscorer, Sarr is out, as is goal-keeper Ben Foster.

West Ham have concerns in defence with Zouma, Ogbonna and Cresswell all side-lined through injury, whilst holding midfielder Declan Rice will miss out due to suspension.

Historically, this has been a high scoring fixture between these teams, with over 3.5 goals occurring in all of the last 3 meetings. This is also true of both teams to score – Yes.

With West Ham’s defensive woes, and Rice out, this match should see more offensive play from both sides. Watford have also seen both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in their last 5 matches.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Over 2.5 goals’ at a decent value price of 1.79 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Over 2.5 Goals

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 1.79+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half, otherwise close the trade at around 60 mins if it’s still 0-0.

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half, or

– If neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a decent profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match:NEWCASTLE UNITED v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 27th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):  20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  September this year, where Manchester United won 4-1 (PRL)

– Newcastle have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Newcastle have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester United have recorded W3 L1 D1 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.47, Newcastle at 8, with the draw at 5.

Newcastle currently sit 2nd from bottom in the PRL with just 10 points after 18 matches. Manchester United are 7th with 27 points and 16 matches played.

Newcastle are currently bottom in the league in terms of home xG, on 1.02, with Manchester United 5th for away matches with 1.45.

In terms of xGA Newcastle are the worst placed for home games with 1.89. Manchester United have the 9th best record for away games with a mediocre 1.62.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Newcastle have averaged 1.33, whilst conceding 2.33 at home – both numbers higher than expected. Manchester United have averaged 1.5, whilst conceding 1.38 goals for away matches – slightly better than expected.

In terms of absentees or injuries, Jonjo Shelvey is a doubt and Isaac Hayden is suspended for Newcastle.  Apart from Paul Pogba (who probably wouldn’t start anyway) Manchester United have a close to full-strength squad for Rangnick to select from.

Historically, this has been a high scoring fixture, with over 2.5 goals coming in 4 of the last 5 meetings. This is also true of both teams to score – Yes. Although Manchester United are expected to collect all 3 points here, Newcastle should go all out at home and manage to score with Callum Wilson and Saint-Maximin likely to both start.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent value price of 1.8 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.8+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester United score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Newcastle are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Newcastle score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Manchester United scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: English Premier League (PRL)
Match: Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace
Date: 26th December 2021
Time (GMT): 15:00

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.72, Crystal Palace at 5.7, with the draw at 4.

Tottenham currently sit 7th in the PRL with 26 points, although they have played just 15 matches (the top 4 have all played 18). Crystal Palace are 11th with 20 points and 17 matches played.

Tottenham are currently 15th in the league in terms of home xG, on 1.32, with Crystal Palace 15th for away matches with 1.08.

In terms of xGA Tottenham are 5th worst placed for home games with 1.57. Crystal Palace have the 4th worst record for away games with 1.87.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Tottenham have averaged 1.44, whilst conceding 1.11 at home – better than their xG/A numbers suggest. Crystal Palace have averaged 1.12, whilst conceding 1.88 goals for away matches – very much in-line with their xG/A numbers.

In terms of absentees or injuries, there are no major concerns with either team, and both are expected to field strong sides.

Although Tottenham haven’t recorded outstanding goal scoring numbers so far, they have scored 2 or more goals in their last 3 PRL home games, whilst keeping a clean sheet in 2 of these. Since the appointment of new manager Antonio Conte, they have improved up front and also appear to have tightened up defensively. Further positive regression is expected here, and in search of higher value than a standard back of Tottenham, the following recommendation is made.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Tottenham (-0.5 & -1.0) in the Asian Handicap market at a decent value price of 1.92 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Market: Asian Handicap
Selection: Tottenham (-0.5 & -1.0)
Price / Points: 1.92 / 4 points

With this selection, if Tottenham win by 2 goals then 100% profit is made. If they win by 1 goal, then 50% profit is made. If they do not win, then stake is lost.


Date: 23rd – 25th DECEMBER 2021 – No Trade Day


League: ITALIAN SERIE A (SEA)

Match: NAPOLI v SPEZIA

Date: 22nd DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  May this year, where Napoli won 1-4 (SEA)

– Napoli have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Napoli have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Napoli have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Spezia have recorded W0 L3 D2 in their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Spezia have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Spezia have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

Trading Markets Considered

Napoli go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.27, Spezia at 14, with the draw at 7.

Napoli currently sit 2nd in the SEA with 39 points, with Spezia 17th with just 13 points.

Napoli are currently 3rd in the league in terms of home xG, on 1.94, with Spezia 15th for away matches with 1.04.

In terms of xGA Napoli are 3rd placed for home games with 1.07. Spezia have the 3rd worst record for away games with 1.97.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Napoli have averaged 1.89, whilst conceding 0.67 at home. Spezia have averaged 0.89, whilst conceding 3 goals for away matches.

In terms of absentees or injuries, Napoli will be missing midfielder Ruiz, defender Koulibaly and forwards Insigne and Osimhem (2nd top scorer and joint top scorer, respectively).

With Spezia failing to score in their last 2 away matches (as well as nearly half of their away matches), and Napoli suffering on the attacking front, it seems doubtful both teams will score in this match.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Both Teams To Score – No’ at a decent value price of 1.9 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Both Teams To Score – No

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 1.9+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of one team not scoring

(b) If Napoli score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat/slightly positive leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Spezia not scoring

(c) If Spezia score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Keep open on the expectation of Napoli not scoring

(d) If Napoli score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as positive still, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Spezia not scoring

(dii) If Spezia score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Close the trade, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Napoli not scoring


League: ITALIAN SERIE A (SEA)

Match: JUVENTUS V CAGLIARI 

Date: 21st DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  March this year, where Juventus won 1-3 (SEA)

– Juventus have recorded W3 L1 D1 in their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Juventus have seen over 2.5 goals in none of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Juventus have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Cagliari have recorded W0 L2 D3 in their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Cagliari have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Cagliari have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

Trading Markets Considered

Juventus go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.21, Cagliari at 21, with the draw at 7.4.

Juventus currently sit 7th in the SEA with 31points, with Cagliari second from bottom with just 10 points.

Juventus are currently 9th in the league in terms of home xG, with 1.63, with Cagliari bottom for away matches with 0.72.

In terms of xGA Juventus are 1st placed for home games with just 0.95. Cagliari have the worst record for away games with 2.15.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Juventus have averaged 1.12, whilst conceding 0.88 at home. Cagliari have averaged 0.62, whilst conceding 2.38.

In terms of absentees or injuries, Juventus will be missing Ramsey, Chiesa and Danilo, whilst Pellegrini is a doubt. Cagliari will be without midfielder Marin due to suspension, whilst Strootman is injured.

Taking Juventus to win outright at 1.21 is not tempting, even though they should be expected to win at home here.

However, with Cagliari failing to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches, and Juventus scoring in 4 of their last 5, an alternate market is looked at for better value.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Juventus Win to Nil – Yes’ at a decent value price of 1.8 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Juventus Win to Nil – Yes

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.8+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Juventus score in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) Leave open on the expectation of Cagliari not scoring

(b) If Juventus haven’t scored by half-time, the position will be showing as flat / negative. If they are attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of Juventus scoring, or

(ii) If Cagliari are creating good chances, then close the trade


League: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP (CHA)

Match: FULHAM V SHEFFIELD UNITED

Date: 20th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  February this year, where Fulham won 1-0 (CHA)

– Fulham have recorded W1 L0 D4 in their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Fulham have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Fulham have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Sheffield United have recorded W3 L1 D1 in their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Sheffield United have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Sheffield United have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

Trading Markets Considered

Fulham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.8, Sheffield United at 4.9, with the draw at 4.1.

Fulham currently sit top in the CHA with 45 points, with Sheffield United 14th with 29 points.

Fulham are currently top in the league in terms of home xG, with 2.17, with Sheffield United 6th for away matches with a respectable 1.38.

In terms of xGA Fulham are 4th placed for home games with 1.02. Sheffield United are 4th for away games with a decent 1.22.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Fulham have averaged 2.18, whilst conceding just 0.64. Sheffield United have averaged 1.18, whilst conceding 1.55. This is largely in line with the xG/A numbers, even if Fulham have conceded slightly less goals than expected, and Sheffield United have conceded more than expected.

Fulham have the best goal difference in the league, with a mighty +33, which is almost twice that of 2nd placed Bournemouth on +17. Fulham  however have hit a bit of a dry spell in terms of goals, and have managed just 3 goals in their last 4 matches (3 of which were 1-1 draws). Sheffield United have won their last 3 matches, whilst keeping a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 matches.

In terms of absentees or injuries, neither team have much to report and this match is expected to take place as scheduled.

Taking Fulham to win outright at 1.8 is tempting, but the fact they have drawn their last 4 matches is a concern. Both teams here have decent defences as shown by their xGA ratings.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ at a decent value price of 2.16 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Under 2.5 Goals

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.16+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 19th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):14:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  May this year, where Manchester City won 3-4 (EPL)

– Newcastle have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Newcastle have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester City have recorded W5 L0 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester City have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester City have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.18, Newcastle at 20, with the draw at 9.4.

Newcastle currently sit 19th in the EPL with just 10 points, with Manchester City 1st with 41 points.

Newcastle are currently bottom in terms of home xG, with 1.08. Manchester City are top for away matches with 2.43.

In terms of xGA Newcastle are again the worst for home games with 1.86. Manchester City meanwhile have the best record in the league with just 0.95.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Newcastle have averaged 1.06 in total, whilst conceding 2.18. Manchester City have averaged 2.35, whilst conceding a league low of 0.53.

Newcastle have conceded the most goals in the league so far, with 37 – Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have a combined total of 39.

With Manchester City having the proven tightest defence in the Premier League (and Europe), and with Newcastle’s 2nd highest goal-scorer and creative player (Saint-Maximin) looking doubtful for this fixture, it is difficult seeing Newcastle scoring here. The 2nd best defence in the league belongs to Chelsea, and they have conceded 3 more goals than Manchester City. When Newcastle played Chelsea in October, Newcastle failed to score and created minimal chances.

However, with both teams to score ‘No’ priced at 1.74, an alternate market is favoured for higher value.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Manchester City WIN to Nil’ at a decent value price of 1.9 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

This is a higher risk trade, due to the fact a single goal (from Newcastle) can create a full loss. However, it it is calculated, and the reward is well worth the risk in this instance.

Manchester City Win To Nil – Yes

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.9+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester City score in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) Leave open on the expectation of Newcastle not scoring

(b) If Manchester City haven’t scored by half-time, the position will be showing as flat / negative. If they are attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of Manchester City scoring, or

(ii) If Newcastle are creating good chances, then close the trade


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL) – THIS MATCH WAS POSTPONED DUE TO COVID-19

Match: ASTON VILLA v BURNLEY

Date: 18th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  January this year, where Burnley won 3-2 (EPL)

– Aston Villa have recorded W3 L2 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Aston Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Aston Villa have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Burnley have recorded W0 L1 D4 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Burnley have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Burnley have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Aston Villa go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.8, Burnley at 5.4, with the draw at 3.85.

Aston Villa currently sit squarely mid-table in 10th in the EPL with 22 points, with Burnley 18th with just 11 points.

Aston Villa are currently 18th in terms of home xG, with 1.11. Burnley are 16th for away matches with 0.96.

In terms of xGA Aston Villa are 13th worst for home games with 1.37. Burnley have the worst record in the league with 2.03.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Aston Villa have averaged 1.75, whilst conceding 1.38 at home. Burnley have averaged just 0.75, whilst conceding 1.62 away.

Burnley are the 3rd lowest goal scorers in the league, with just 14 goals and have also failed to score in 50% their away matches, including the last 2. Aston Villa are 9th with 23 goals. They have also tightened up defensively and have conceded just 2 goals in the their last 3 matches.

This appears to be a tight, cagey match with a lack of clear cut goal-scoring opportunities.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at a decent value price of 1.87 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Under 2.5 Goals

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.87+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP (CHA)

Match: BARNSLEY v WEST BROMWICH ALBION

Date: 17th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  December 2019, where the sides drew 1-1 (CHA)

– Barnsley have recorded W0 L3 D2 in their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Barnsley have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Barnsley have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– West Brom have recorded W2 L1 D2 in their last 5 matches (CHA)

– West Brom have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– West Brom have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

Trading Markets Considered

West Brom go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.74, Barnsley at 5.8, with the draw at 3.95.

Barnsley currently sit 2nd from bottom in the CHA with just 13 points, with West Brom 3rd with 40 points.

Barnsley are 18th in terms of home xG, with 1.14. West Brom are 2nd for away matches with a decent 1.83.

In terms of xGA Barnsley are 6th worst for home games with 1.4. West Brom have the best record with just 1.03.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Barnsley have averaged 0.73, whilst conceding 1.36 at home. West Brom have averaged 1.18, whilst conceding 1.09 away.

Barnsley have conceded in all of their last 5 home matches, whilst failing to score in 2 of them. They have also failed to score in 10 of their 22 matches played. West Brom arguably have the best defence in the league as indicated by their xGA metrics, and have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches. However, they have also failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away games.

Even though West Brom have defensive uncertainties due to Covid-19, this has the makings to be a low-scoring match.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at a decent value price of 1.9 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Under 2.5 Goals

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 1.88+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: LIVERPOOL  v NEWCASTLE UNITED

Date: 16th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where the sides drew 1-1 (EPL)

– Liverpool have recorded W5 L0 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Liverpool have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score in 0 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Newcastle have recorded W1 L2 D2 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Newcastle have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.14, Newcastle at a huge 28, with the draw at 11.

Liverpool currently sit 2nd in the EPL with 37 points, with Newcastle second from bottom in 19th with just 10 points.

Liverpool are 2nd in terms of home xG, with 2.39. Newcastle are 17th for away matches with 0.92.

In terms of expected goals against, Liverpool hold the 3rd best position for home games with just 0.99. Newcastle are 8th with 1.6.

Looking at actual goals scored and conceded, Liverpool have averaged 2.38, whilst conceding just 0.62. Newcastle have averaged just 0.62, whilst conceding 2.12.

These metrics point to a convincing home win, hence the market prices quoted above.

Liverpool have won their last 5 home matches, and kept a clean sheet in all of them. Newcastle have failed to score in their last 2 away matches (against Leicester and Arsenal). With Liverpool’s strong form during this fixture heavy period, it is expected that this trend will continue.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Liverpool WIN to Nil’ at a decent value price of 1.8 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Liverpool Win to Nil – Yes

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Liverpool Win to Nil- Yes’ at 1.8+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Liverpool score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) Leave open on the expectation of Newcastle not scoring​

(b) If Liverpool haven’t scored by half-time, the position will be showing as flat / negative. If Liverpool are attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of Liverpool scoring, or

(ii) If Newcastle are creating good chances, then close the trade


13th DECEMBER 2021 – No Trade Day


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: CRYSTAL PALACE v EVERTON

Date: 12th DECEMBER 2021 Time (GMT): 16:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in April this year, where the sides drew 1-1 (EPL)

– Crystal Palace have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Crystal Palace have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Crystal Palace have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Everton have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Everton have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Everton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Crystal Palace go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.34, Everton at 3.7, with the draw at 3.25.

Crystal Palace currently sit 14th in EPL with 16 points, with Everton just above in 13th with 18 points.

Crystal Palace are 16th in terms of home xG, with 1.3. Everton are actually 7th with 1.35.

In terms of expected goals against, Crystal Palace hold the 3rd best position for home games with just 0.94. Everton are 8th with 1.57.

This correlates with the teams actual goals scored, where Crystal Palace have averaged 1.43 at home, whilst conceding 0.86. Everton meanwhile have averaged just 0.86 goals away, whilst conceding 1.71.

These sort of metrics point to a low-scoring win for Crystal Palace. However, after seeing Everton’s determination and win against Arsenal in their last game, this may not be as clear cut as it seems. Both teams will see this as a winnable fixture, and both will be vying for the 3 points.

In their 3 last meetings, both teams have scored, and over 2.5 goals has occurred twice.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent value price of 2.06 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘BTTS – Yes’ at 2.06+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Crystal Palace score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Everton are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit​

(b) If Everton score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Crystal Palace scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: NORWICH CITY v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 11th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  June this year in the FA Cup, where the sides drew 1-1 at the end of normal time, with Manchester United winning 1-2 in extra-time (FAC)

– Norwich have recorded W2 L1 D2 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Norwich have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Norwich have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester United have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.48, Norwich at 7.8, with the draw at 5.

Norwich currently sit bottom in EPL with 10 points – the same as the other relegation zone dwellers Burnley and Newcastle. However, where these teams have a goal difference of -7 and -13 respectively, Norwich have a huge -23.

It is the lack of goals which see them where they are, having scored the fewest goals of all Premier League sides – just 8, as well as the lowest shots on target (44). Norwich have been averaging 0.53 goals per match (although 0.78 at home), whilst conceding 2.07 (1.57 at home).  Manchester United have averaged 1.67 goals per match, whilst conceding 1.6.

Needless to say, Norwich are ranked bottom in the league for xG with just 0.95, whilst Manchester United are 6th with 1.63. Norwich have recorded the 4th worst in the league for xGA with 1.7, with Manchester United 8th worst on 1.52.

With Manchester United looking to tighten up defensively under new manager Ralf Rangnick, it is unlikely Norwich will see their goal-scoring improve much in this match.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Manchester United (-1)’ in the Asian Handicap market at a fair-value price of 1.8 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Asian Handicap – Manchester United (-1)

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Manchester United (-1)’ at 1.8+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester United score first, this trade will be in a profit position, leading to:

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Manchester United extending the lead for full profit

(bi) If Norwich score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Manchester United equalizing and coming back with a further goal (break even scenario)

(bii) If  Norwich score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Manchester United coming back with at least 2 goals

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run on the expectation of Manchester United scoring first in the second-half (which will lead to a break even scenario), and following up with a second for full profit


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: BRENTFORD v WATFORD

Date: 10th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met competitively was in  May this year in the Championship, where Brentford won 2-0 (CHA)

– Brentford have recorded W1 L2 D2 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Brentford have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Brentford have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Watford have recorded W1 L4 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Watford have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Watford have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Brentford go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.34, Watford at 3.5, with the draw at 3.4.

Brentford currently sit 13th in EPL with 17 points, with Watford just above the relegation zone in 17th with 13 points.

In their home matches, Brentford have been averaging 1.14 goals per match, whilst conceding 1.29.  Watford have averaged 1.43 goals per match, whilst conceding 1.71 for away.

Brentford are ranked #16 in the league for home xG with 1.27, whilst Watford are actually 8th for away games with 1.31. Brentford have recorded the 6th worst in the league for xGA with 1.44, with Watford 6th worst for away matches on 1.68.

With Brentford conceding in 4 of their last 5 matches, and Watford conceding in all but 1 of their matches so far in the Premier League, this could be a high-scoring affair.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a fair-value price of 1.83 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers fair-value for this match at 1.83

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.83+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Brentford score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Watford are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Watford score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Brentford scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit​

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE (UEL)

Match: NAPOLI v LEICESTER CITY

Date: 9th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  September this year in the reverse of this fixture, where the sides drew 2-2 (UEL)

– Napoli have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (UEL)

– Napoli have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (UEL)

– Napoli have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (UEL)

– Leicester have recorded W2 L1 D2 in their last 5 matches (UEL)

– Leicester have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (UEL)

– Leicester have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (UEL)

Trading Markets Considered

Napoli go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.14, Leicester at 3.6, with the draw at 3.85.

Napoli currently sit 3rd in UEL Group C with 7 points, in what is an incredibly tight group. Leicester are currently top with 8 points. A win here for either team would see them take top spot. 2nd placed Spartak Moscow also have 7 points, but have a 4 GD shortfall on Napoli.

In their 5 matches so far in the group stage, Napoli have been averaging 2.4 goals per match, whilst conceding 1.6.  Leicester have averaged 2.0 goals per match, whilst conceding 1.6.

Domestically, Napoli are 3rd in Serie A, just 2 points off leaders AC Milan. They have a decent league home xG of 1.77, and the second best league xGA of 1.16 – a positive differential of 0.61 per match.

Leicester are 11th in the Premier League. In xG terms they are placed 8th, with 1.37 but have an xGA of 1.7 – the 3rd worst in the league (just behind Newcastle and Burnley). This leaves them with a negative differential of 0.33 per match.

Napoli are currently ranked #10 in Europe at the moment, and pose a real attacking threat. Leicester are ranked #54 and the defence is leaking goals in both the Premier League and so far in the UEL – they haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their 5 matches.

Further to this, it has been reported that a case of Covid-19 has hit the Leicester squad, with up to 7 players affected. With this, along with the above stats, Napoli should win at home in this match and top the group.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Napoli’ at a good-value price of 2.14 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Match Odds – Napoli

Backing ‘Napoli’ offers good-value for this match at 2.14

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Napoli’ at 2.14 before the start (or as soon as you read this, since the price will drop) for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Napoli score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Napoli maintaining the lead for greater profit​

(bi) If Leicester score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Napoli equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Leicester score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Napoli coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Napoli scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v YOUNG BOYS

Date: 8th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  September this year in the reverse of this fixture, where Young Boys won 2-1 (UCL)

– Manchester United have recorded W3 L1 D1 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Young Boys have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Young Boys have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Young Boys have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.46, Young Boys at 7.8, with the draw at 5.2.

Manchester United currently sit top of Group F with 10 points and just need a draw to secure this position. Young Boys sit at the bottom with 4 points and have no chance of qualifying for the next round of UCL.

In their 5 matches so far in the group stage, Manchester United have been averaging 2.0 goals per match, whilst conceding 1.4 (from 5 matches). Young Boys have averaged 1.73 goals per match, whilst also conceding 1.73 (from 11 matches).

In their last match with new interim manager Ralf Rangnick, Manchester United won 1-0 at home against Crystal Palace. It was also noted that this was Manchester United’s first clean sheet at home for the season, with a more defensive / pressing approach.

Needing just a draw here, Manchester United are set to rotate players ahead of Saturday’s Premier League match against Norwich. This will mean it is likely that their top-scorer is benched (6 UCL goals). Rashford is therefore likely to start (1 UCL goal).

With Manchester United just needing a draw to claim top-spot in the group, it is anticipated that the high-pressing display seen against Crystal Palace will be on show. Young Boys have failed to score in their last 2 away UCL matches and this once again could prove difficult in this match against a more defensively minded Manchester United.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Both Teams To Score – No’ at a good-value price of 2.28 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Both Teams To Score – No

Backing ‘No’ offers good-value for this match at 2.28

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 2.28 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of one team not scoring

(b) If Manchester United score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat/slightly positive leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Young Boys not scoring​

(c) If Young Boys score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Keep open on the expectation of Manchester United not scoring

(d) If Manchester United score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as positive still, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Young Boys not scoring

(dii) If Young Boys score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Close the trade, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Manchester United not scoring


League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: AC MILAN v LIVERPOOL

Date: 7th DECEMBER 2021

Time :(GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  September this year in the reverse of this fixture, where Liverpool won 3-2 (EPL)

– Milan have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Milan have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Liverpool have recorded W5 L0 D0 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Liverpool have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

Trading Markets Considered

Milan a go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.16, Liverpool at 3.45, with the draw at 3.95.

Liverpool have already qualified from their group, taking top-spot. Milan on the other hand sit in 3rd place with 4 points. Above them is Porto with 5 points, whom take on Atletico Madrid at the same time this evening. To take second spot, Milan need to both win this match and for Porto to not win. Chances of this are slim, especially with Porto playing at home.

In their 5 matches so far in the group stage, Milan have been averaging 1.0 goal (both home and away), whilst conceding 1.4. Liverpool have averaged 3 goals per match, whilst conceding 1.0.

In their domestic Serie A league, Milan currently sit top. They have scored 35 goals so far, but have recorded an xG of just 27.08, which points to some negative regression being expected. Indeed, in 4 of their last 5 home matches, Milan has managed just a single goal. In 4 of Milan’s last 5 matches, they have also seen under 2.5 goals.

Liverpool’s xG  is the second best in the Premier League on 2.38 – just 0.03 behind Manchester City. However, as has already been stated by Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp, his side for this fixture will have to be heavily rotated.

Therefore, the usual Liverpool front 3 are unlikely to feature which has been the foundation of their high-scoring matches we have come to expect. This will also have the impact of slowing the pace of the match.

In terms of injuries, Milan will be without Giroud, Castillejo, Rebic and Pellegri. Liverpool will be without Firmino, Curtis Jones through injury, and James Milner is suspended.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at a high-value price of 2.52 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers high-value for this match at 2.52

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at 2.52 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: EVERTON  v ARSENAL

Date: 6th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where Everton won 0-1 (EPL)

– Everton have recorded W0 L4 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Everton have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Everton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Arsenal have recorded W3 L2 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal a go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.08, Everton at 3.9, with the draw at 3.75.

Everton are currently 16th in the league, with 15 points. Arsenal are 7th with 23.  In the last 5 previous head-to-heads, Everton have won 3, Arsenal 1, and there has been 1 draw.

Everton have been averaging 1.57 goals at home, whilst conceding 1.71. Arsenal have averaged just 0.71 away goals, whilst conceding 2.0. Everton have failed to score in 2 of their 7 home matches, whilst Arsenal have failed to score in 4 away matches.

In terms of xG, Everton are ranked #12 in the league for home matches with an average of 1.36, whereas Arsenal come in at #9 for away matches with 1.19. For xGA, Everton are ranked #10 in the league for home matches with 1.42, with Arsenal 4th worst on 1.85 for away games.

In terms of injuries, Everton continue to be without striker Calvert-Lewin, Tom Davies and Salomon Rondon are also expected to miss out. Arsenal will be without defender Kolasinac and midfielder Xhaka.

Although Everton have been on a poor run, their home form metrics are better than Arsenal’s away. Everton appear to be due some positive regression, with Arsenal’s 6th placed league position flattering them.

Therefore the recommendation is to to lay ‘Arsenal’ in the match odds market at a fair value price of 2.08 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Match Odds – Lay Arsenal

Laying ‘Arsenal’ offers fair value for this match at 2.08

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Arsenal’ at 2.08 or less before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Everton score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Everton maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Arsenal score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Everton t equalizing

(bii) If Arsenal score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Everton equalising

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Everton scoring first in the second-half / Arsenal not scoring


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: ASTON VILLA  v LEICESTER CITY

Date: 5th DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  February this year, where Leicester won 1-2 (EPL)

– Aston Villa have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Aston Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Aston Villa have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leicester have recorded W1 L2 D2 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leicester have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leicester have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Aston Villa go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.42, Leicester at 3.25, with the draw at 3.5.

Aston Villa have been averaging 1.71 goals at home, whilst conceding 1.43. Leicester have averaged 1.57 away goals, whilst conceding 1.86. Aston Villa have scored in all of their 7 home matches so far, whilst Leicester have scored in all 7 of their away games.

In terms of xG, Aston Villa are ranked #19 in the league for home matches with an average of just 1.07, whereas Leicester come in at #12 for away matches with 1.15. For xGA, Aston Villa are ranked #9 in the league with 1.32 at home, with Leicester 5th worst on 1.75 for away games.

In terms of injuries, Aston Villa will be without striker Leon Bailey, Bertrand Traore and Trezeguet.

Leicester will be without Youri Tielemans, which is a big loss for them since he is their joint-second top goal-scorer.

Leicester have a tricky away match next week to Napoli in the UEFA Europa League which could prove a distraction to their preparations here. Leicester have won just once in their last 5 away fixtures, and this trend doesn’t look to be changing against a more defensive Aston Villa since the arrival of new manager Steven Gerrard.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Aston Villa’ in the Draw No Bet market at a fair value price of 1.75 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Draw No Bet – Aston Villa

Backing ‘Aston Villa’ offers fair value for this match at 1.75

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Aston Villa’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Aston Villa score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Aston Villa maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Leicester score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Aston Villa equalizing

(bii) If Leicester score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Aston Villa equalizing

– Remember, this is Aston Villa (draw no bet), so even a draw will result in a scratch trade.

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Aston Villa scoring first in the second-half to maximize profit, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v CHELSEA

Date: 4th DECEMBER 2021 Time (GMT):12:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where Chelsea won 0-1 (EPL)

– West Ham have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Chelsea have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Chelsea have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.83, West Ham at 5, with the draw at 3.85.

In their last 5 meetings, West Ham have won 2, and Chelsea 3 matches.

West Ham have been averaging a respectable 1.83 goals at home, whilst conceding 1.43. Chelsea have averaged 2.14 away goals, whilst conceding just 0.29. Interestingly, West Ham have scored in all of their 7 home matches so far, whilst Chelsea have scored in all 7 of their away games.

In terms of xG, West Ham are ranked #4 in the league with an average of 1.68 (1.65 at home), whereas Chelsea come in at #4 for away matches with 1.65. xGA tells another similarly matched story, with West Ham averaging 1.3 at home, with Chelsea 1.39 for away games.

In terms of injuries, West Ham will still be without their centre-back Angelo Ogbonna. Aaron Cresswell is also set to miss out following a back injury suffered with a collision with a goal-post when clearing off the line in their last match.

Chelsea will be without Ben Chilwell, Trevor Chalobah and N’Golo Kante. However, Reece James should be back after missing the previous match.

This will be a tough match for both teams, with Chelsea having the worst of the injuries. With this in mind, although Chelsea concede very few away goals, West Ham should find a way in this fixture and continue their 100% home scoring record.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent value price of 2.02 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 2.02

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Chelsea score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If West Ham are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If West Ham score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:​

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Chelsea scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit​

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: GERMAN BUNDESLIGA (BUN)

Match: UNION BERLIN v RB LEIPZIG

Date: 3rd DECEMBER 2021 Time (GMT):19:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  May this year, where Berlin won 2-1 (BUN)

– Berlin have recorded W1 L2 D2 in their last 5 matches (BUN)

– Berlin have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (BUN)

– Berlin have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (BUN)

– Leipzig have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (BUN)

– Leipzig have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (BUN)

– Leipzig have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (BUN)

Trading Markets Considered

Leipzig go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.18, Berlin at 3.65, with the draw at 3.7.

In their last meeting, Berlin won 2-1. In their last 5 matches, Berlin have recorded W1 L2 D2. Leipzig have recorded W2 L2 D1.

Berlin have been averaging 1.43 goals at home, whilst conceding just 1.0. Leipzig have averaged just 0.5 away goals, whilst conceding 1.17. In fact, Leipzig have yet to win in any of their 6 away matches this season, and have failed to score in 50% of away matches. They have also not kept a clean-sheet in any of their away matches.

Berlin have scored in 6 of their 7 home matches (86%), whilst keeping a clean sheet on 4 occasions (57%).

In terms of xG, Berlin are ranked #15 in the league with an average of 1.14, whereas Leipzig come in at #6 with 1.48. This contradicts the actual goal averages of these teams, indicating that Berlin have been more clinical with fewer attempts.

With the Leipzig squad affected by a recent Covid-19 outbreak, this is not going to help their chances against a Berlin side that clearly produce better results at home than away. Indeed, even if players test negative following having Covid-19, player and team performance is shown to be negatively affected.

Amid concerns about the potentially lower workplace productivity of people who have had Covid-19, evidence from professional football suggests that even six months after an infection, a player’s performance is reduced. Team performance also suffers from more players being infected.” (Source: Economic Observatory)
Trade Recommendation

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Home or Draw’ in the Double Chance market at a decent value price of 1.82 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Double Chance – Home or Draw

Backing ‘Home or Draw’ offers decent value for this match at 1.82

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Home or Draw’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Berlin score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Berlin maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Leipzig score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Berlin equalizing

(bii) If Leipzig score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:​

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Berlin equalizing

– Remember, this is home and draw scenarios being backed, so even a draw will result in full profit.

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Berlin scoring first in the second-half to maximize profit, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: MANCHESTER UNITED v ARSENAL

Date: 2nd DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:15

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  January this year, where they drew 0-0 (EPL)

– Manchester United have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Arsenal have recorded W4 L1 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.08, Arsenal at 3.9, with the draw at 3.75.

Manchester United currently sit in 10th with 18 points, with Arsenal in 5th with 23 points. In their last competitive meeting in April this year, the match ended 0-0. The 4 matches prior to this has seen Arsenal win 3, and there has been 1 draw.

In terms of xG, Manchester United have recorded 19.25 from 13 matches. Arsenal are just marginally worse with 18.31. xGA for Manchester United is a high 23.43, whereas Arsenal have 21.99.

Both teams have under performed, but going in to this match, it would be fair to say Arsenal are in better form. However, they have still managed just 3 goals (total) from 6 away matches – which is is an average of 0.5 goals per match.

All of the last 5 meetings between these sides have seen under 2.5 goals, and this trend looks set to continue where both sides will be more concerned with not losing.

Recommendation

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘under 2.5 goals’ at a decent value price of 2.18 for 3 points (Betfair Exchange).

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match at 2.18

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘under’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: SOUTHAMPTON v LEICESTER CITY

Date: 1st DECEMBER 2021  Time (GMT): 19:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where they drew 1-1 (EPL)

– Southampton have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Southampton have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Southampton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leicester have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leicester have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leicester have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Southampton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.5, Leicester City at 3, with the draw at 3.65.

Southampton currently sit in 16th and with 14 points, with Leicester in 10th with 18 points. In their last competitive meeting in April this year, the match ended 1-1.

In their last 5 matches, Southampton have recorded 2 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw. Leicester have recorded the same.

In terms of xG, Southampton have recorded 16.41 from 13 matches. Leicester are just marginally better on just 17.24. xGA for Southampton is a high 18.5, whereas Leicester have a surprisingly high 21.1.

Both teams have under performed so far this season, with inconsistency being a major factor. However, Leicester slightly edge this encounter with more quality.

Therefore the trade recommendation is to to back ‘Leicester’ in the ‘draw no bet market’ at a decent value price of 2.2 for 4 points (Betfair Exchange).

Draw No Bet – Leicester

Backing ‘Leicester’ offers decent value for this match at 2.2

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Leicester’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Leicester score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Leicester maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Southampton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Leicester equalizing

(bii) If Southampton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Leicester equalizing

– Remember, this is Leicester (draw no bet), so even a draw will result in a scratch trade.

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Leicester scoring first in the second-half to maximize profit, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)
Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED v NORWICH CITY
Date: 30th NOVEMBER 2021Time (GMT):19:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  February last year, where they drew 0-0 (EPL)

– Newcastle have recorded W0 L2 D3 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Newcastle have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Norwich have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Norwich have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Norwich have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Newcastle go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2, Norwich at 4, with the draw at 3.75.

Newcastle currently sit firmly at the bottom of the league in 20th and with just 6 points, with Norwich in 19th with 9 points. In their last competitive meeting in February last year, the match ended 0-0.

In their last 5 matches, Newcastle have recorded 2 losses and 3 draws. Norwich however appear to be turning a corner, having won 2, drawn 1 and 2 losses.

In terms of xG, Newcastle have recorded 12.81 from 13 matches – just under 1 expected goal per match. Norwich are on just 10.72, which is the lowest in the league. xGA for Newcastle is a high 25.4, which is the worst in the league, whereas Norwich have 23.13.

This is an early relegation deciding match. Both teams have had a poor run, but with new Norwich manager Dean Smith, they actually look better. This type of match will be won or lost on who makes the least mistakes, and on the evidence, it would appear that Norwich should just have enough to come away with a point at least.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Norwich (+0.5)’ at a fair value price of 1.9 for 4 points (Betfair Exchange).

Asian Handicap – Norwich (+o.5)

Backing ‘Norwich (+0.5)” offers decent value for this match at 1.9

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Norwich (+0.5)’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Norwich score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Norwich maintaining the lead for greater profi​

(bi) If Newcastle score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Norwich equalizing

(bii) If Newcastle score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Norwich equalizing

– Remember, this is Norwich (+0.5), so even a draw will win full profit

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Norwich scoring first in the second-half to maximize profit, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: SPANISH LA LIGA (LAL)

Match: OSASUNA v ELCHE

Date: 29th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where Osasuna won 2-0 (LAL)

– Osasuna have recorded W0 L3 D2 in their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Osasuna have seen over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Osasuna have seen both teams to score in 0 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Elche have recorded W0 L3 D2 in their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Elche have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Elche have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

Trading Markets Considered

Osasuna go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.88, Elche at 5.3, with the draw at 3.55.

Osasuna currently sit 11th in the league with 19 points, with Elche in 18th with 11 points.

In their last 5 matches, both teams have recorded 3 losses and 2 draws. However, it should be noted that Osasuna has had a much tougher run of fixtures during this spell, having played all the top 4 sides in La Liga.

In terms of xG, Osasuna have recorded 14.92 from 14 matches – just over 1 expected goal per match. Elche are on just 10.9, which is the 2nd lowest in La Liga. xGA for Osasuna is a respectable 15.58, whereas Elche have 19.73.

Looking at the above numbers, this is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair. However, the price on under 2.5 goals is too short at just 1.66.

Therefore the recommendation is to to back ‘Osasuna’ to win outright at home, at a fair value price of 1.88 for 4 points (Betfair Exchange).

Match Odds – Osasuna

Backing ‘Osasuna’ offers decent value for this match at 1.88

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Osasuna’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Osasuna score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Osasuna maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Elche score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Osasuna equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Elche score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Osasuna coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Osasuna scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: MANCHESTER CITY v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 28th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):14:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  October this year, where the sides drew 0-0, with West Ham eventually winning on penalties (League Cup)

– Manchester City have recorded W4 L1 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester City have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Manchester City have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– West Ham have recorded W4 L1 D0 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.31, West Ham at 11.5, with the draw at 6.4.

Manchester City currently sit 3rd in the league with 26 points, with West Ham just one place and 3 points below in 4th. In their last meeting in October (League Cup), the match ended 0-0 (which West Ham won on penalties). Prior to this in the Premier League in February this year, Manchester City won 2-1.

Looking at other metrics, these teams look more closely matched than the above quoted prices warrant:

– Manchester City are #3 in the most league goals scored so far, on 25. West Ham are #4 with 23 goals.

– Both teams have won 4 of their last 5 matches.

– Both teams have failed to score in 1 of their last 5 matches.

– Manchester City have picked up 13 points from their 6 home matches. West Ham have 13 points from their 6 away matches.

– Manchester City have averaged 18.5 shots per match, West Ham 17.

– Manchester City have scored first in 8 of their 12 matches played, West Ham in 7.

In terms of xG, Manchester City have the highest home rating in the league, with 2.32 per match. West Ham have the 3rd best away rating with 1.81.

xGA follows a similar trend, with Manchester City having the best home rating in the league with just 0.57 expected goals against. West Ham have the 5th best away rating with 1.34.

In terms of injuries / absentees, Manchester City are set to be without several key players for them, with Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish, Phil Foden and Ferran Torres all out. West Ham are without centre-back Angelo Ogbonna.

Both teams played mid-week in Europe. Manchester City however played a close to full strength side in order to overcome PSG. West Ham were able to rest key players to ensure they are fresh and prepared for this encounter today.

Taking the above in to consideration, this should be a much closer match than the prices suggest, with both teams scoring.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 2

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester City score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If West Ham are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If West Ham score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Manchester City scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit​

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: NORWICH v WOLVES

Date: 27th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  February last year, where the Wolves won 3-0 (EPL)

– Norwich have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Norwich have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Norwich have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Wolves have recorded W3 L1 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Wolves have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Wolves have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Wolves go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.24, Norwich at 3.75, with the draw at 3.45.

Norwich currently sit 19th in the EPL with just 8 points, with Wolves in 6th with 19 points. In their previous last 5 meetings, Norwich have won 1, Wolves 3, and there has been 1 draw.

Norwich have scored an average of 0.58 goals per match – however at home this number is a slightly better but still unimpressive 0.83. Wolves are averaging 1 goal per match, although away this improves to 1.17. Goals conceded tells a similar story, with Norwich averaging 1.83 at home, whilst Wolves are averaging 1 when away.

xG supports these numbers, where Norwich have the leagues’ worst xG rating (9.32), and xGA number (22.83). Wolves have recorded 16.61 and 15.34 respectively from the 12 matches played so far.

Although Norwich have won their last 2 matches, their numbers are still very poor, and this will be further evident against a Wolves team that have lost just once in their last 5 away matches.

Therefore the trade I’ll be taking is to back ‘Wolves’ at a decent value price of 2.24 for 3 points. A small hedge trade is also recommended, as detailed below:

Hedge Trade

Correct Score Market: Back 1-1 @ 7.4 for 0.5 point.

Match Odds – Wolves

Backing ‘Wolves’ offers decent value for this match at 2.24

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Wolves’ at 2.24 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Wolves score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Wolves maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Norwich score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Wolves equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Norwich score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Wolves coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Wolves scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: FRENCH LIGUE 1 (LI1)

Match: LENS v ANGERS

Date: 26th NOVEMBER 2021 Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  February this year, where the sides drew 2-2 at Angers (LI1)

– Lens have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (LI1)

– Lens have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (LI1)

– Lens have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (LI1)

– Angers have recorded W1 L2 D2 in their last 5 matches (LI1)

– Angers have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (LI1)

– Angers have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (LI1)

Trading Markets Considered

Lens go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.94, Angers at 4.7, with the draw at 3.6.

Lens currently sit 4th in La Ligue with 24 points, with Angers in 6th and just 3 points fewer on 21. In their last meeting in February this year, the sides drew 2-2 at Angers.

Lens have scored an average of 1.79 goals per match – however at home this number jumps to 2.14. Angers are averaging 1.43 goals, although away this drops to 1.29.

xG tells a similar story, where Lens have one of the highest xG ratings (26.74), and also one of the lowest xGA number (14.75). Angers have recorded 18.54 and 16.92 respectively.

Although Lens lost their last match away at Brest, they’ve won 4 of their last 5 home matches. Angers conversely have not won in their last 6 away matches.

Therefore the trade I’ll be taking is to back ‘Lens’ at a decent value price of 1.94 for 3 points.

Match Odds – Lens

Backing ‘Lens’ offers decent value for this match at 1.94

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Lens’ at 1.94 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Lens score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Lens maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Angers score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Lens equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Angers score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Lens coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Lens scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE (UEL)

Match: RAPID VIENNA v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 25th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):17:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  September this year, where West Ham won 2-0 (UEL)

– Rapid Vienna have recorded W1 L3 D0 in their last 4 matches (UEL)

– Rapid Vienna have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4 matches (UEL)

– Rapid Vienna have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 4 matches (UEL)

– West Ham have recorded W3 L0 D1 in their last 4 matches (UEL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4 matches (UEL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 4 matches (UEL)

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.65, Rapid Vienna at 5.9, with the draw at 4.4.

#18 ranked in Europe, West Ham are currently top in group H on 10 points, with #192 ranked Rapid Vienna bottom with 3 points.

In their last UEL matches on 4th November, Vienna lost 3-1 at away against Dinamo Zagreb, whilst West Ham drew away with Genk 2-2. This is actually the first time in their 4 matches played where West Ham have conceded, having kept 3 clean sheets prior to this.

Rapid Vienna have scored a total of 3 goals in their last 4 UEL matches, whereas West Ham have managed 9 during the same period.

Although some rotation is expected, West Ham will approach this game with a strong side looking for a professional, solid display to secure top spot in the group. This will have the advantage of less fixtures and not meeting a UCL drop-out in the next round.

West Ham also currently have the 5th best away xGA in the Premier League, on 1.34 (Chelsea are in 4th with 1.3).

Both Teams To Score – No

Backing ‘No’ offers decent value for this match at 2.2

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at 2.2 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of one team not scoring

(b) If West Ham score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat/slightly positive leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Rapid Vienna not scoring

(c) If Rapid Vienna score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Keep open on the expectation of West Ham not scoring​

(d) If West Ham score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as positive still, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Rapid Vienna not scoring

(dii) If Rapid Vienna score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Close the trade, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham not scoring


League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: MANCHESTER CITY v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN (PSG)

Date: 24th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  September this year, where PSG won 2-0 (UCL)

– Manchester City have recorded W3 L2 D0 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Manchester City have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Manchester City have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– PSG have recorded W2 L1 D2 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– PSG have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– PSG have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.66, PSG at 5.5, with the draw at 4.5.

#3 ranked in Europe, Manchester City are currently top in group A on 9 points, with #8 ranked PSG in 2nd with 8 points.

In their last UCL matches on 3rd November, Manchester City won 4-1 at home against Club Bruges, whilst PSG drew away with bottom placed RB Leipzig.

Manchester City have scored a total of 15 goals in their last 4 UCL matches, which is only bettered by Bayern Munich in this group stage. PSG have managed nearly half as many, with 8 goals during the same period.

In terms of injuries, Manchester City are set to be without their play-maker Kevid De Bruyne (covid-19) and striker Ferran Torres (foot fracture). Jack Grealish is also a possible absentee.

A key likely absentee for PSG is top Italian goal-keeper, Donnarumma (stomach flu). If this is the case, then this will only play further in to Manchester City’s hands.

Therefore the recommendation is to back ‘Manchester City -1’ in the Asian Handicap market at a decent value price of 2 for 3 points.

Note: Although this isn’t a typically traded match, it’s one where better value has been found than conventional markets.

Asian Handicap – Manchester City (-1)

Backing ‘Manchester City (-1)’ offers fair value for this match at 2

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Manchester City (-1)’ at 2+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester City score first, this trade will be in a profit position, leading to:

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Manchester City extending the lead for full profit

(bi) If PSG score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Manchester City equalizing and coming back with a further goal (break even scenario)

(bii) If  PSG score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Manchester City coming back with at least 2 goals

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run on the expectation of Manchester City scoring first in the second-half (which will lead to a break even scenario), and following up with a second for full profit


League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: BARCELONA v BENFICA

Date:23rd NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  September this year, where Benfica won 3-0 (UCL)

– Barcelona have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Barcelona have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Barcelona have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Benfica have recorded W1 L2 D2 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Benfica have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Benfica have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

Trading Markets Considered

Barcelona go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.72, Benfica at 5.4, with the draw at 4.2.

Barcelona are currently 2nd in group E on 6 points, with Benfica in 3rd on 4 points.

In their last respective domestic league encounters, Barcelona just about managed a 1-0 home win over Espanyol (penalty goal), and created just 0.69 xG during the match.

Benfica won at home 6-1 against Sporting Braga, although this score-line is flattering in that their xG here was below 2.5.

Barcelona have scored a total of 3 goals in their last 5 UCL matches, with 2 of these against bottom placed Dynamo Kiev. Benfica have managed 5 goals in their last 5.

In terms of injuries, Barcelona will be without their 2nd and 3rd top goal-scorers in La Liga – Fati and Braithwaite, and so goal opportunities could be limited against a Benfica side that have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 away matches in the Primeira Liga.

Barcelona meanwhile have the 4th best xGA in La Liga, and have conceded just 4 goals in their last 5 home matches.

With so much at stake here in claiming 2nd place in the group, a tight and cagey match is expected, with few goals.

Therefore the recommendation is to back ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at a decent value price of 2.3 for 3 points.

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match at 2.3

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at 2.3 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: ITALIAN SERIE A (SEA)

Match: TORINO v UDINESE

Date: 22nd NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where Torino won 0-1 (SEA)

– Torino have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Torino have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Torino have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Udinese have recorded W1 L1 D3 in their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Udinese have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

– Udinese have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (SEA)

Trading Markets Considered

Torino go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.04, Udinese at 4.3, with the draw at 3.5.

Torino and Udinese are currently placed #14 and #15 in the league, both on 14 points. Torino however have a superior goal difference of +3, Udinese with -3.

Last season, both teams recorded a win in their 2 head-to-heads (0-1 Torino, 2-3 Udinese).

In terms of xG, Torino has recorded 16.51 after 12 matches, and an xgA of 12.26. Udinese fair a little worse, having an xG of 15.57 and an xGA of 16.26.

Torino have shown a much better home form than when away, averaging 2 goals per match, against just 0.5 away. Udinese have similar but less pronounced stats, recording 1.43 at home, with 1 away.

This should therefore favour Torino here to take all 3 points. However, they have a few (5) injury concerns, where Udinese seem better prepared with just a suspension for midfielder Makengo.

Therefore the recommendation is to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent value price of 2.06 for 3 points.

It should also be noted that both teams have scored the vast majority of goals in the second-half (Torino 80%, Udinese 60%), and so patience may be required.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 2.06

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2.06 before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Torino score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Udinese are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Udinese score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:​

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Torino scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow (as mentioned, both have scored more goals in the second-half), or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v LEEDS UNITED

Date: 21st NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  May this year, where Leeds won 3-1 (EPL)

– Tottenham have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Tottenham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leeds have recorded W2 L1 D2 in their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leeds have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

– Leeds have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (EPL)

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.77, Leeds at 5, with the draw at 4.1.

Tottenham are currently placed #10 in the league on 16 points, with Leeds in #17 with 11 points.

In terms of xG, Tottenham has recorded just 11.43 after 11 matches, but have also recorded an xgA of  16.58. Leeds fair little better, having an xG of 13.2 and an xGA of 17.12.

Both teams have their own injury concerns, with Tottenham missing Christian Romero and Giovani Lo Celso. Leeds are still without their main striker, Patrick Bamford, Robin Koch and Luke Ayling.

This is likely to be a very close match to call, with both teams struggling for goals – Tottenham have failed to score in their last 3 league matches, whilst Leeds have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 away matches.

Therefore the recommendation is to lay Tottenham, at a decent value price of 1.74.

Match Odds – Lay Tottenham

Laying ‘Tottenham’ offers decent value for this match at 1.74

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Tottenham’ at 1.74 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Leeds score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Leeds maintaining the lead for greater profit​

(bi) If Tottenham score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Leeds t equalizing

(bii) If Tottenham score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Leeds equalising

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Leeds scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after for a decent profit


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE (EPL)

Match: WOLVERHMPTON WANDERERS (WOLVES) v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 20th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):15:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in  April this year, where West Ham won 2-3 (EPL)

– Wolves have recorded W3 L1 D1 in their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Wolves have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Wolves have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– West Ham have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (LAL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

Trading Markets Considered

West Hame go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.48, Wolves at 3.3, with the draw at 3.35.

Wolves are currently placed #8 in the league, with West Ham in #3rd.

In terms of xG, Wolves has recorded 15.29 after 11 matches, but have also recorded an xgA of  14.9. These numbers just don’t make for a title winning team, or for beating a team that are 5 places ahead and have one of the best xG / xGA differentials.

West Ham should win this match quite comfortably.  However, I’m concerned about Wolves going all out attack, especially with Ogbonna out injured.

Therefore the recommendation is to back ‘over 2.5 goals’, at a decent value price of 2.04.

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘over’ offers fair value for this match at 2.04

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 2.04+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half, otherwise close the trade at around 560 mins if it’s still 0-0.

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half, or

– If neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a decent profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half


League: SPANISH LA LIGA (LAL)

Match: LEVANTE  v ATHLETIC BILBAO Date:

19th NOVEMBER 2021Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in a cup game March this year, where Athletic Bibao won 1-2 in extra time (Copa Del Rey)

– Levante have recorded W0 L2 D3 in their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Levante have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Levante have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Athletic Bilbao have recorded W2 L1 D2 in their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Athletic Bilbao have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (LAL)

– Athletic Bilbao have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

Trading Markets Considered

Athletic Bilbao go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.28, Levante at 3.7, with the draw at 3.35.

Levante is currently placed #19 in the league, with Bilbao in #8th.

In 22 previous fixtures between these sides, Levante have won just 5 times, Bilbao 14, and there has been 3 draws. Interestingly, 16 of the 22 matches have seen over 2.5 goals (73%).

In terms of xG, Levante has recorded 15.24 after 13 matches, which is actually the best out of the bottom 8 teams. The issue is that they also have the one of the highest xGAs, at 18.31. Bilbao have a respectable xG at 18.69, and the second best xGA in the league at just 10.7 (just behind 3rd placed Sevilla).

With Bilbao drawing their last 4 league matches, they will be sure to be looking for a quick start to turn this trend around.

Therefore the recommendation is to back ‘over 2.5 goals’, at a decent value price of 2.34.

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘over’ offers decent value for this match at 2.34

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over’ at 2.34+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half, otherwise close the trade at around 55 mins if it’s still 0-0.

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half, or

– If neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a decent profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half


Date:  17th – 18th NOVEMBER 2021  – No Trade Day


League: WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION (WQE)

Match: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA (BOSNIA) v UKRAINE

Date: 16th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year in the reverse WQE fixture, where the sides drew 1-1

– Bosnia have recorded W1 L1 D3 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Bosnia have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Bosnia have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Ukraine have recorded W1 L0 D4 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Ukraine have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Ukraine have seen both teams to score in all of their last 5 matches (WQE)

Trading Markets Considered

Ukraine go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.85, Bosnia at 4.9, with the draw at 3.85.

Bosnia and Ukraine are currently ranked #56 and #26 respectively in the FIFA World rankings, and are on 7 and 9 points in their group – Bosnia in 4th and Ukraine in 3rd.

However, a win for Ukraine could see them get to the second round of qualification. Finland are in 2nd in the group with 11 points, but tomorrow they play France. Unless France totally show little interest in this game, they should beat Finland, or draw at the very minimum. Therefore, a win for Ukraine would put them in 2nd place and a chance of qualification if they better Finland’s goal difference (if they draw with France).

It is obviously out of Ukraine’s hands with the other result (Finland v France), but they will be sure to get a win here. They last played a WQE over a month ago, and so should be well rested and prepared for this challenge against a team 30 places below them.

Therefore the recommendation is to back ‘Ukraine’ to win, at a fair value price of 1.85.

Match Odds – Ukraine

Backing ‘Ukraine’ offers fair value for this match at 1.85

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Ukraine’ at 1.85+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Ukraine score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Ukraine maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Bosnia score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Ukraine equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Bosnia score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Ukraine coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Ukraine scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION (WQE)

Match: SCOTLAND v DENMARK

Date: 15th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September this year in the reverse WQE fixture, where the Denmark won 2-0

– Scotland have recorded W5 L0 D0 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Scotland have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Scotland have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Denmark have recorded W5 L0 D0 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Denmark have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Denmark have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

Trading Markets Considered

Denmark go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.4, Scotland at 3.5, with the draw at 3.3.

Scotland and Denmark are currently ranked #42 and #10 respectively in the FIFA World rankings, and are on 20 and 27 points in their group – Denmark top and Scotland in second place.

This is the last match of the group, which sees Denmark already qualified. Scotland are also through to a spot in the 2nd round of qualification with their guaranteed second placed finish.

Therefore, this may appear to be a match of little consequence. However, more points for Scotland will help their route in the 2nd round via being seeded higher. Denmark will be keen to keep their momentum and complete an impressive 100% winning record during World Cup qualification.

Although some changes are expected, Denmark manager Kasper Hjulmand is expected to still field a strong team to maintain their winning run, in a low-scoring encounter.

Therefore the recommendation is to back ‘Denmark’ to win, at a high value price of 2.4.

Match Odds – Denmark

Backing ‘Denmark’ offers decent value for this match at 2.4

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Denmark’ at 2.4+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Denmark score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Denmark maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Scotland score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Denmark equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Scotland score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Denmark coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Denmark scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION (WQE)

Match: CROATIA v RUSSIA

Date: 14th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):14:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September this year in the reverse WQE fixture, where the sides drew 0-0

– Croatia have recorded W4 L0 D1 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Croatia have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Croatia have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Russia have recorded W5 L0 D0 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Russia have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Russia have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

Trading Markets Considered

Croatia go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.69, Russia at 5.8, with the draw at 4.1.

Croatia and Russia are currently ranked #18 and #33 respectively in the FIFA World rankings, and are on 20 and 22 points in their group – Russia top and Croatia second.

Croatia have scored in all of their last 5 WQE matches. Russia have the same record.
Russia just need to ‘not lose’ to qualify automatically from the group
With Croatia looking for a win to take the top place in the group, they will undoubtedly go out on the attack from the off. Russia will know that they cannot expect to get through this match defending a 0-0, and so will also be quick on the counter-attack.
Therefore the recommendation is to back Both Teams To Score – Yes, at a decent price of 1.9.

Both teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 1.9

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 1.9+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Croatia score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Russia are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Russia score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Croatia scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION (WQE)

Match: BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA v FINLAND

Date: 13th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):14:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in March this year in the reverse WQE fixture, where the sides drew 2-2

– Bosnia have recorded W1 L2 D3 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Bosnia have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Bosnia have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Finland have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Finland have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Finland have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

Trading Markets Considered

Bosnia go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2, Finland at 4.4, with the draw at 3.55.

Bosnia and Finland are currently ranked #56 and #60 respectively in the FIFA World rankings, and are on 7 and 8 points in their group – so this appears to be a close encounter.

In the reverse fixture of this World Cup qualification group, the sides drew 2-2.

Bosnia have scored in 4 of their last 5 WQE matches – only failing away to France. Finland hold the same record, with also failing to score away to France.

Bosnia have enough talent to score, and includes Inter Milan striker Dzeko (7 goals so far this season) that looks set to start here.

Finnish striker (Pukki) has racked up 6 goals in this qualification campaign alone – the same as the top 4 goal scorers for Bosnia combined.

With both teams looking for a win to replace Ukraine in second place in the group, a similar outcome is expected as their first encounter in March this year.

Therefore the recommendation is to back Both Teams To Score – Yes, at a decent price of 2.

Both teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 2

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at 2+ before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Bosnia score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Finland are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Finland score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Bosnia scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 5+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION (WQE)

Match: ITALY v SWITZERLAND

Date: 12th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in September this year in the reverse WQE fixture, where they drew 0-0

– Italy have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Italy have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Italy have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Switzerland have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Switzerland have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Switzerland have seen both teams to score in none of their last 5 matches (WQE)

Trading Markets Considered

Italy go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.69, Switzerland at 6.4, with the draw at 3.85.

Italy currently sit top of their WQE group with 14 points. Switzerland also have 14 points, but a marginal 2 goal difference less.

Italy and Switzerland are currently ranked #4 and #14 respectively in the FIFA world rankings.

In 4 of their last 5 meetings, these teams have drawn, with all 4 of these having under 2.5 goals.

This is set to be a tight, cagey match between these neighbouring countries – much  like the reverse fixture in September.

This will be compounded, with both teams having notable absentees for this match, especially in attack – where Italy are missing Immobile, their top-scorer in qualification. Switzerland are also missing their top 2 scorers in Zuber (3 goals) and Embolo (2 goals).

Add to this that the Swiss have not conceded in their last 5 qualification matches, and this has the signs of another low or no scoring draw.

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘Under 2.5 goals’ at a decent price of 1.8.

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match at 1.8

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at around 1.8 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: WORLD CUP QUALIFICATION (WQE)

Match: GREECE v SPAIN

Date: 11th NOVEMBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in March this year, where they drew 1-1 (WQE)

– Greece have recorded W2 L1 D2 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Greece have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Greece have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Spain have recorded W4 L1 D0 in their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Spain have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

– Spain have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (WQE)

Trading Markets Considered

Spain go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.46, Greece at 9.4, with the draw at 4.6.

Spain currently sit 2nd in their WQE group with 13 points – 2 behind leaders Sweden. Greece are in 3rd on 9 points, having lost their last match to Sweden.

Greece will then not be able to sit-back – they must play to win to maintain any hope of taking 2nd spot. This will play in Spain’s hands and they should prove to much for Greece to maintain.

Spain have also scored in all of their last 10 away matches and beat Italy 1-2 in their last away game (UEFA Nations League). Greece have conceded in 4 of their last 5 at home.

Both teams have a few absentees for this match, with Spain top-scorer in qualification, Ferran Torres being most notable. However, Spain should still have enough for a comfortable win here.

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘’Spain -1’ in the Asian Handicap market at a fair price of 1.8.

Asian Handicap – Spain (-1)

Backing ‘Spain (-1)’ offers fair value for this match at 1.8

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Spain (-1)’ at around 1.8 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Spain score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Spain maintaining / extending the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Greece score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Spain equalizing and coming back further

(bii) If  Greece score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Spain coming back with goals

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run on the expectation of Spain scoring first in the second-half, and some profit can be taken, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Spain scoring a second, and if so close the trade


Date: 8th – 1oth NOVEMBER 2021 – No Trade Day


League: PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v LIVERPOOL

Date: 7th NOVEMBER 2021 Time (GMT): 16:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January this year, where Liverpool won 1-3 (PRL)

– West Ham have recorded W4 L1 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Liverpool have recorded W2 L0 D3 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Liverpool have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.76, West Ham United at 4.9, with the draw at 4.3.

West Ham United are currently 4th in the league, with Liverpool in 3rd with just 2 points more.

In terms of xG after 10 matches played, West Ham have recorded a very decent 18.93, which is the 3rd best in the league. However, Liverpool are on 25.99, which is the best in the league.
These sides have a very similar xGA, so this is likely to be a close match.
In their last league matches, West Ham beat Aston Villa 1-4, whilst Liverpool drew 2-2 with Brighton.
Liverpool are overvalued for this match, and the price is not worth going near. West Ham have not lost at home in their last 16 matches. Liverpool have also drawn 3 of their last 5 matches, including games against Brentford and Brighton.

Therefore, the trade I will be making is to back ‘West Ham’ in the ‘draw no bet’ market at a very decent price of 3.75.

Draw No Bet – West Ham

Backing ‘West Ham’ offers decent value for this match at 3.75.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Liverpool score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Liverpool score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back with a goal for a draw

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for a profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: Brighton v Newcastle United

Date: 6th NOVEMBER 2021 Time (GMT): 17:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in March this year, where Brighton won 3-0 (PRL)

– Brighton have recorded W0 L1 D4 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Brighton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Newcastle have recorded W0 L3 D2 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Newcastle have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Brighton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced a just t 1.6, Newcastle at 6.4, with the draw at 4.3.

Brighton are currently 8th in the league, with Newcastle in 19th.
In their last match, Brighton drew away to Liverpool 2-2, whilst Newcastle were beaten at home 0-3 by Chelsea.

In terms of xG after 10 matches played, Brighton have recorded 11.55, against Newcastle on 10.21. The more concerning number for Newcastle is their xGA, which is 19.89 – the worst in the league. Brighton have a more respectable 13.6.

All the stats, form and history point to a home win in this encounter, but the price is not good enough to back. Both teams to score has occurred in just 1 of their last 5 meetings. Brighton have seen both teams to score in just 2 of their last 5 home games and under 2.5 goals in 3 of these.

Therefore, the recommendation I will be making is to back ‘Both Teams To Score – No’ at a decent price of 2.​

Both Teams To Score – No

Backing ‘No’ offers decent value for this match at 2.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ before the start for 3.5 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of one team not scoring

(b) If Brighton score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Newcastle not scoring

(c) If Newcastle score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Keep open on the expectation of Brighton not scoring

(d) If Brighton score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as positive still, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Newcastle not scoring

(dii) If Newcastle score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Close the trade, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Brighton not scoring


League: PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: SOUTHAMPTON v ASTON VILLA

Date: 5th NOVEMBER 2021 Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January this year, where Aston Villa won 0-1 (PRL)

– Southampton have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Southampton have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Southampton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Aston Villa have recorded W1 L4 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Aston Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Aston Villa have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Southampton go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.1, Aston Villa at 3.85, with the draw at 3.75.

Southampton are currently 14th in the league, with Aston Villa just a place and a point behind in 15th.
In their last 5 league matches, Southampton have recorded W2 L3 D1. Aston Villa have had a worse run, with just W1 L4 D0. In their last match, Southampton won away to Watford 0-1, whilst Aston Villa were beaten at home 1-4 by West Ham, although they did have a player sent off.​

In terms of xG after 10 matches played, Southampton have recorded 13.41, against Aston Villa on just 10.66. The more concerning number for Aston Villa is their xGA, which is 17.16, where Southampton have 14.47.

Aston Villa are likely to be missing around 6-8 first team starters, including striker Danny Ings, which won’t help in this duel where they have lost 4 of their last 5 meetings with Southampton.

All the stats, form and history point to a home win in this encounter.

Therefore, the recommendation I will be making is to back ‘Southampton’ in the ‘match odds’ market at a decent price of 2.1.

Match Odds – Southampton

Backing ‘Southampton’ offers decent value for this match at 2.1.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Southampton’ before the start for 3.5 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Southampton score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Southampton maintaining the lead for greater profit​

(bi) If Aston Villa score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Southampton equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Aston Villa score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Southampton coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Southampton scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


Date: 4th NOVEMBER 2021 – No Trade Day


League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: Borussia Dortmund v Ajax

Date: 3rd NOVEMBER 2021 Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was their first encounter in group C, where Ajax won 4-0 (UCL)

– Dortmund have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

–  Dortmund have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

–  Dortmund have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Ajax have recorded W3 L2 D0 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

–  Ajax have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

–  Ajax have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

Trading Markets Considered

Ajax go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.46, Dortmund at 2.94, with the draw at 3.9.

Dortmund are currently ranked #11 in Europe, with Ajax in #7, so this match is between two very high quality opponents. This is also shown in their respective league positions, where Dortmund are in 2nd (1 point behind Bayern Munich) and Ajax are top of the Dutch league.

Two weeks ago in their last meeting in group C of the UCL, Ajax won 4-0. The big factor in this match today is that Dortmund will be without their top scorer Braut Haaland. This is a big blow for Dortmund, where much of their play is centred around him as a focal point.

Therefore, the trade I will be making is to back ‘Ajax’ in the ‘Match Odds’ market at a decent price of 1.85.

Match Odds – Ajax

Backing ‘Ajax’ offers decent value for this match at 2.46.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Ajax’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Ajax score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of  Ajax maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Dortmund score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of  Ajax equalizing and coming back

(bii) If  Dortmund score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of  Ajax coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of  Ajax scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after.


League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (UCL)

Match: ATALANTA v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 2nd NOVEMBER 2021 Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was their first encounter in group F, where Manchester United won 3-2 (UCL)

– Atalanta have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Atalanta have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Atalanta have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Manchester United have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (UCL)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in all of their last 5 matches (UCL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.32, Atalanta at 3.15, with the draw at 3.9.

Atalanta are currently ranked #17 in Europe, with Manchester United just one place higher in 16th.

In terms of xG, Atalanta have 18.92 from 11 league games, which is the 4th highest in Serie A. Manchester United are on 16.26 in the Premier League after 10 games, which is better than all teams below them – so it is clear that both sides have attacking intent.

When looking at the xGA numbers, Atalanta have recorded 14.5 which is the worst number in the top 5. Manchester United are currently on 16.31 xGA, which is the highest of all teams down to 15th placed Aston Villa. This again shows that both teams are vulnerable to conceding goals.

In their last league matches, Atalanta drew 2-2 at home to Lazio, and in 4 of their last 5 matches they have seen over 2.5 goals, with all of them seeing both teams to score. Manchester United won 0-3 to Tottenham at the weekend, but prior to that they suffered a 0-5 home defeat by Liverpool.​

The markets I would normally look at for this are over 2.5 goals and BTTS – Yes, however the prices are not good enough at just 1.6 and 1.53 respectively.​

With the humbling at Old Trafford by Liverpool, this seems to have lit the fire that was needed, as the 0-3 win at Spurs demonstrated. This should continue, with a strong teams selection as they pursue a first Champions League trophy since 2008.​

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘Manchester United’ outright in the ‘Match Odds’ market at a decent price of 2.34.

Match Odds – Manchester United

Backing ‘Manchester United’ offers decent value for this match at 2.34.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Manchester United’ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester United score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Manchester United maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Atalanta score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Manchester United equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Atalanta score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Manchester United coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Manchester United scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after


League:PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: WOLVES v EVERTON

Date: 1st NOVEMBER 2021 Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in May this year, where Everton won 1-0 (PRL)

– Wolves have recorded W3 L1 D1 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Wolves have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Wolves have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Everton have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Everton have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Everton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Wolves go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.34, Everton at 3.55, with the draw at 3.4.

Wolves currently sit 11th in the league with 13 points, with Everton in 9th, with just 1 point more.

In terms of xG, Wolves sit exactly as their position dictates – 11th in the league, with 1.25 expected goals per game. Everton are ranked 8th with 1.35, but this drops to 1.29 for their away matches.

When looking at the xGA numbers, Wolves have recorded 1.28 overall, but at home they have just 0.98, which puts them 4th best in the league. Everton are currently on 1.45 xGA, which is the 9th best in the league and in-line with their current position. Their away number is slightly higher on 1.53.​

Looking at the last 5 head-to-heads, Wolves have won 2, and Everton 3.

In their last league matches, Wolves drew away to Leeds 1-1, but have won their previous 3 matches prior to this. Everton lost at home to Watford (2-5), after taking the lead (twice).

This is a tight match to call an outright winner, with a draw quite likely. However, history form and statistics point to both teams scoring.

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ at a decent price of 1.94.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 1.94.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ before (or shortly after the start) for 3.5 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Wolves score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Everton are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Everton score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Wolves scoring, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 4+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League:PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: ASTON VILLA v WEST HAM UNITED

Date: 31st OCTOBER 2021 Time (GMT): 16:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year, where West Ham won 1-3 (PRL)

– Aston Villa have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Aston Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Aston Villa have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have recorded W3 L2 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.56, Aston Villa at 2.98, with the draw at 3.6.

Aston Villa currently sit 15th in the league with 10 points, with West Ham in 4th, with 17 points.

In terms of xG, Tottenham are ranked 13th in the league, with 1.25 expected goals per game – however for their home matches this number drops to just 1.19, putting them as 17th worst in the league. West Ham are ranked 4th with a decent 1.76, but this rises to 1.81 for their away matches (3rd best in the league).

When looking at the xGA numbers, Aston Villa have recorded 1.44, puts them mid-table in 10th. However, they have an impressive home record with just 0.96 (3rd best in the league). West Ham are currently on 1.22 xGA, which is the 3rd best in the league, just behind Liverpool and Manchester City.

Looking at the last 5 head-to-heads, West Ham have won 3, and there has been 2 draws. In fact the last time Aston Villa beat West Ham was in 2015.

In their last league matches, Aston Villa lost away to Arsenal 3-1, and have lost their last 3 matches. West Ham beat Tottenham (1-0) at home.

Looking at their respective statistics, form and historical meetings, it’s difficult to look past a West Ham victory.​

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘West Ham United’ in the ‘match odds’ market at a decent price of 2.56 to win.

Match Odds – West Ham United

Backing ‘West Ham United’ offers decent value for this match at 2.56.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham at around 2.5+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Aston Villa score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Aston Villa score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after


League:PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR v MANCHESTER UNITED

Date: 30th OCTOBER 2021 Time (GMT): 17:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in April this year, where Manchester United won 1-3 (PRL)

– Tottenham have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester United have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester United have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester United have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester United go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.44, Tottenham at 3.1, with the draw at 3.7.

Tottenham currently sit 6th in the league with 15 points, with Manchester United with just 1 point less in 7th.

In terms of xG, Tottenham are ranked 17th in the league, with just 1.05 expected goals per game. Manchester United are ranked 3rd with 1.83. When looking at the xGA numbers, Tottenham have an unimpressive 1.57, which is 7th worst in the league, with Manchester United recording 1.32.

Looking at the last 5 head-to-heads, Manchester United have won 3, Tottenham 1 and there has been 1 draw.

In their last league matches, Tottenham lost away to West Ham 1-0, whilst Manchester United suffered a 0-5 thrashing at home to Liverpool. It is expected there will be a big reaction here from Manchester United.

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘Manchester United’ in the ‘draw no bet’ market at a decent price of 1.8.

Draw No Bet – Manchester United

Backing ‘Manchester United’ offers decent value for this match at 1.8

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Manchester United at around 1.8+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Manchester United score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Manchester United maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Tottenham score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Manchester United equalizing and coming back

(bii) If Tottenham score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:​

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Manchester United coming back

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat / slightly positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Manchester United scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after


League: English Championship (CHA)

Match: Queens Park Rangers (QPR) v Nottingham Forest

Date: 29th OCTOBER 2021 Time (GMT): 19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in April this year, where Nottingham Forest won 3-1 (CHA)

– QPR have recorded W2 L2 D0 in their last 5 matches (CHA)

– QPR have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– QPR have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Nottingham Forest have recorded W4 L1 D0 in their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Nottingham Forest have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (CHA)

– Nottingham Forest have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (CHA)

Trading Markets Considered

QPR go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.26, Nottingham Forest at 3.6, with the draw at 3.55.

QPR currently sit in 7th in the league with 21 points, with Nottingham Forest in 15th. However, there is just 4 points difference, with this league being exceedingly tight.

​In their last meeting in April this year, Nottingham Forest won 3-1. In the last 5 meetings, QPR have won just once.

Nottingham Forest have not lost in their last 5 away matches – winning 4 of them. They were also on a 4 match winning streak, until they lost their last match to 2nd placed Fulham.

QPR lost their last match to 20th placed Peterborough United.

If this trend is to continue, Nottingham Forest will at least get a draw here.

Therefore, the recommendation is to lay ‘QPR’ in the ‘match odds’ market at a fair price of 2.24.

Match Odds – Lay QPR

Laying ‘QPR’ offers fair value for this match at 2.24

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a lay position on ‘QPR’ at around 2.24 before the start for 3 points.​

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Nottingham Forest score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Nottingham Forest maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If QPR score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Nottingham Forest equalizing

(bii) If QPR score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Nottingham Forest equalising

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Nottingham Forest scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after for a decent profit


Date: 28th OCTOBER 2021 – No Trade Day

League: Italian Serie A

Match: Cagliari v Roma

Date: 27th OCTOBER 2021 Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in April this year, where Cagliari won 3-2 (Serie A)

– Cagliari have recorded W1 L3 D1 in their last 5 matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (Serie A)

– Cagliari have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (Serie A)

– Roma have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (Serie A)

– Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (Serie A)

– Roma have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (Serie A)

Trading Markets Considered

Roma go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.61, Cagliari at 6.2, with the draw at 4.5.

Cagliari currently sit bottom of the league with 6 points, with Roma in 4th with 16 points.

In their last meeting in April this year, Cagliari won 3-2. In the meeting before this in Sardinia, the sides drew 2-2.

Cagliari in the south of the Italian island of Sardinia are one of those teams where their home record is vastly better then when playing away. This can be seen in their average goals scored, where at home they have 1.6, compared to just 0.75 away. They also concede considerably less.

Roma have also struggled with their away matches this season, and have won just once in their last 5. Cagliari’s last match was a 3-1 home win against Samdoria on 17th October.

Roma last played on 21st October and lost away to Bode / Glimt in the UEFA conference league (6-1).

I have been to Cagliari’s ground, and it is compact and a tough place for away teams with the home ultras. Therefore, the recommendation is to lay ‘Roma’ in the ‘match odds’ at a decent price of 1.61.

Match Odds – Lay Roma

Laying ‘Roma’ offers decent value for this match at 1.61

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Roma’ at around 1.61 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Cagliari score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Cagliari maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Roma score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Cagliari equalizing

(bii) If Roma score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Cagliari equalising

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for small profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Cagliari scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after for a decent profit


Date: 25th – 26th OCTOBER 2021 – No Trade Day


League: PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v TOTTENHAM

Date: 24th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT): 14:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year, where West Ham won 2-1 (PRL)

– West Ham have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.38, Tottenham at 3.25, with the draw at 3.6.

West Ham currently sit 7th in the league with 14 points, with Tottenham with just 1 point more in 5th.

In terms of xG, West Ham are ranked 4th in the league, with 1.77 expected goals per game. Tottenham are 16th with just 1.06.  When looking at the xGA numbers, West Ham have an impressive 1.23, which is 5th best in the league, with Tottenham recording 1.57.

Tottenham have recently played 3 of their London rivals (Arsenal, Chelsea, Crystal Palace) and lost all of them, whilst conceding 3 goals in each match.

Both sides played in UEFA European competitions mid-week, with West Ham beating Genk 3-0 and Tottenham losing to Vitesse 1-0. Both sides made changes to their usual starting 11, with Tottenham fielding more changes with this match in mind.

This match will be determined by the midfield, and West Ham have a better defensive duo in Rice and Soucek. Overall, the team also has more cohesion than Tottenham with their main striker and captain seeking to move elsewhere.

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘West Ham’ at a decent price of 2.38.

Match Odds – West Ham

Backing ‘West Ham’ offers decent value for this match at 2.38

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at around 2.3+ before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Tottenham score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

(bii) If  Tottenham score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back with two goals

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after


League: PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: BRIGHTON v MANCHESTER CITY

Date: 23rd OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT): 17:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in May this year, where Brighton won 3-2 (PRL)

– Brighton have recorded W2 L0 D3 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Brighton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester City have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester City have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Manchester City have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Manchester City go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.45, Brighton at 8.6, with the draw at 4.9.

Manchester City currently sit 3rd in the league with 17 points, with Brighton just 2 points and 1 place below.

In terms of xG, Brighton are ranked 12th in the league, with just 1.23 expected goals per game. Manchester City are 2nd on 2.15.  When looking at the xGA numbers, Brighton have an impressive 1.1, which is 3rd best in the league. Manchester City however are top with just 0.58.

This is likely to be a low-scoring match, with chance creation at a premium.

Therefore, the trade I will be taking is to back ‘under 2.5 goals’ at a decent price of 2.1.

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match at 2.1

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at around 2.1 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: PREMIER LEAGUE (PRL)

Match: ARSENAL v ASTON VILLA

Date: 22nd OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in February this year, where Aston Villa won 1-0 (PRL)

– Arsenal have recorded W3 L0 D2 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Aston Villa have recorded W2 L3 D0 in their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Aston Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

– Aston Villa have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (PRL)

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2, Aston Villa at 4.2, with the draw at 3.8.

Arsenal currently sit 12th in the league with 11 points, with Aston Villa just 1 point and place below. In their last matches, Arsenal were fortunate to get a draw against Crystal Palace, whilst Aston Villa lost at home to Wolves.

In the last 5 head-to-heads, Aston Villa have a 100% recent record against Arsenal, winning the last 3 to nil.

In terms of xG these sides have similar numbers, with Arsenal on 1.33 per match and Aston Villa on 1.24. However, there’s more of a difference in xGA, where Arsenal have recorded 1.53, with Aston Villa having 1.31 (which is better than Chelsea on 1.32).

As in the last 3 meetings, Arsenal have struggled to break down Aston Villa’s solid defence. Manchester United also experienced this less than a month ago, where Aston Villa won 0-1.

With the teams sitting next to each other in the league table, this will create a cagier match, and quite possibly a low-scoring draw.

Therefore, the value recommendation is to back ‘under 2.5 goals’ at a decent price of 2.16.

Under 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘Under’ offers decent value for this match at 2.16

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Under’ at around 2.16 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a positive position, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit, or
– Leave to run further on the expectation of less than 3 goals occurring in the second-half

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat/slightly positive (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:
– Leave the trade open on the expectation of less than 2 goals in the second-half, or
– If either team appears to be creating many good chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a loss, leading to:
– Close the trade to cut the loss, or
– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of no further goals in the second-half


League: UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v GENK

Date: 21st OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT): 20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– These sides haven’t met before

– West Ham have recorded W4 L1 in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Genk have recorded W1 L4 in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Genk have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Genk have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at just 1.36, Genk at 10, with the draw at 5.9.

It’s not very surprising to see West Ham priced as big favourites here, considering they are ranked #23 in Europe – 131 places higher than Genk (#154).

West Ham have also won their last 2 Europa League matches without conceding a goal (both 2-0). Domestically, their last match in the Premier League saw them beat Everton away (0-1), seeing them up to 7th in the league.

Genk meanwhile have won 1 and lost 1 of their Europa League matches, scoring just a single goal (in 92nd minute against Rapid Vienna). In their last domestic league outing, they lost 2-0 to 9th placed Sporting Charleroi, as well as losing their previous 2 matches prior to this.

Although having one eye on Sunday’s London derby against Tottenham, it is still anticipated that West Ham manager David Moyes will still field a strong side.

Therefore, the recommendation is to back ‘both teams to score – No’ at a decent price of 2.04.

The market is still under developed here, but it is expected to be 5k+ nearer to kick-off.

Both Teams To Score – No

Backing ‘No’ offers decent value for this match at 2.04

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at around 2.04 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of one team not scoring

(b) If West Ham score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Genk not scoring

(c) If Genk score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Keep open on the expectation of West Ham not scoring

(d) If West Ham score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as positive still, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Genk not scoring

(dii) If Genk score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Close the trade, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham not scoring


League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: BARCELONA v DYNAMO KIEV

Date: 20th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):17:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in November last year, where Barcelona won 0-4 (UCL)

– Barcelona have recorded W2 L2 D1 their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Barcelona have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Barcelona have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Kiev have recorded W2 L2 D1 in their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Kiev have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Kiev have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

Barcelona go in to this match as big favourites, currently priced at just 1.29, Kiev at 13, with the draw at 6.6.

Barcelona (ranked #15 in Europe) have experienced a poor start to their season following well documented financial issues at the club, losing their best player and currently sit 7th in La Liga. However, they did register their fourth win at the weekend against Valencia, making it 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Kiev (ranked #46 in Europe) sit top of the Ukrainian Premier league after 11 matches. In their UCL campaign so far, they have recorded a loss and a draw, without scoring a goal. In fact, they have scored just once in their last 5 Champions League matches.

Barcelona have also struggled in the UCL of late, losing their first 2 matches 3-0. They have also scored just 2 goals in their last 5 UCL matches.

With both sides yet to score, combined with news that Kiev are missing several of their forward players, this could turn out to be a low-scoring cagey match.

Therefore, the recommendation is to back ‘both teams to score – No’ at a decent price of 1.96.

This has also occurred in 4 of the last 5 matches for both sides (all competitions).

Both Teams To Score – No

Backing ‘No’ offers decent value for this match at 1.96

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘No’ at around 1.96 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of one team not scoring

(b) If Barcelona score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Kiev not scoring

(c) If Kiev score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Keep open on the expectation of Barcelona not scoring

(d) If Barcelona score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as positive still, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Kiev not scoring

(dii) If Kiev score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Close the trade, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Barcelona not scoring


League: UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

Match: ATLETICO MADRID v LIVERPOOL

Date: 19th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in March last year, where Atletico won 2-3 in extra-time (UCL)

– Atletico have won 3, lost 1 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Atletico have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Atletico have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Liverpool have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

Liverpool go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.36, Atletico at 3.5, with the draw at 3.4.

Atletico (ranked #10 in Europe) are likely to set-up in their standard defensive 4-4-2, but they have the addition of Griezmann to join their top-striker in La Liga, Suarez (4), up front.

Liverpool (ranked #3 in Europe) have been scoring goals at an almost alarming rate, with 18 goals in their last 5 matches. It is no surprise that they have the highest xG in the Premier League, with 20.54 – first placed Chelsea are on 13.45.

Liverpool have also recorded the highest number of shots, with 166 – 24 more than Manchester City.

Therefore, expecting goals in this match, the recommendation is to back over 2.5 goals at a fair price of 2.1.

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘over’ offers fair value for this match at 2.1

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Over 2.5’ at around 2.1 before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half, otherwise close the trade at around 55 mins if it’s still 0-0.

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half, or

– If neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a decent profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match:ARSENAL  v CRYSTAL PALACE

Date: 18th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in May this year, where Arsenal won 1-3 (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won 3, lost 1 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have won 1, lost 1 and drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Crystal Palace have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.77, Crystal Palace at 5.5, with the draw at 3.9.

Arsenal currently sit in 13th spot with 10 points, with Crystal Palace in 14th with 3 points less.

It is expected that Arsenal will start to climb the table, having won 3 and drawn 1 of their last 5. Crystal Palace have also shown potential, scoring 8 goals 8 goals in their last 5.

In 4 of the last 5 meetings between these sides, both teams have scored. They have also seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of those.

Therefore, the recommendation is to back over 2.5 goals at a decent price of 2.

Over 2.5 Goals

Backing ‘over’ offers decent value for this match at 2.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Tottenham’ at around 2.3 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be in a negative position, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Left to run further on the expectation of goals occurring early in the second-half, otherwise close the trade at around 55 mins if it’s still 0-0.

(b) If there is one goal in the first half, this position will be flat / slightly negative (depending on the amount of shots), leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of further goals in the second-half, or

– If neither team appears to be creating chances, then this should be closed

(c) If there are two goals in the first-half, this will be showing a decent profit, leading to:

– Close the trade and take the available profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of another goal in the second-half


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: NEWCASTLE UNITED v TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Date: 17th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):16:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in April this year, where they drew 2-2 (Premier League)

– Newcastle have lost 2 and drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Newcastle have seen both teams to score in all of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Tottenham have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Tottenham have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Tottenham have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Trading Markets Considered

Tottenham go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.28, Newcastle at 3.4, with the draw at 3.65.

Newcastle have had a poor start to the new season, and haven’t won any of their matches. However, they have created an xG of 8.69, which is superior to Tottenham on 7.25 – the 3rd lowest in the league. Their main striker (Harry Kane) has yet to score a goal, and Son remains their top-scorer with 3 goals. However, it has been reported that Son will be missing this match due to having Covid-19

Therefore, the recommendation is to lay Tottenham at a decent price of 2.3.

Match Odds – Lay Tottenham
Laying ‘Tottenham’ offers decent value for this match at 2.3.</strong
Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a lay position on ‘Tottenham’ at around 2.3 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Newcastle score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Newcastle maintaining / extending the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Tottenham score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Newcastle equalizing

(bii) If  Tottenham score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or if Newcastle are creating chances,

– Leave open on the expectation of them equalizing

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as positive, leading to:

– Close the trade for profit, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Newcastle scoring first in the second-half, or wait for a draw which will still profit equally.


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BRENTFORD v CHELSEA

Date: 16th OCTOBER 2021 Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met in a competitive match was in January 2017, where Chelsea won 4-0 (FA Cup)

– Brentford have won 2, lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brentford have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brentford have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have lost 3, lost 1 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Chelsea have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Trading Markets Considered

Chelsea go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.65, Brentford at 6.4, with the draw at 4.1.

This will be a difficult game for Chelsea, considering many players are returning from internationals and/or have injuries (Pulisic, Rudiger, Silva and possibly Lukaku).

Chelsea are top of the table, and have an impressive xG of 13.2. Brentford however are not far behind on 11.03.

Chelsea are not worth backing at this price, considering Brentford last beat West Ham and held Liverpool to a draw.

Therefore, I will be backing Both Teams To Score – ‘Yes’ at a decent price of 2.1.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 2.1.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on BTTS ‘Yes’ at around 2 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Chelsea score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Brentford are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Brentford score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Chelsea scoring in the second-half, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 4+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP 

Match: WEST BROMWICH ALBION v BIRMINGHAM CITY

Date:15th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):20:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met in a competitive match was in June last year, where they drew 0-0 (Championship)

– West Brom have won 2, lost 1 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– West Brom have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– West Brom have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– Birmingham have lost 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– Birmingham have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– Birmingham have seen both teams to score in just 1 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

Trading Markets Considered

West Brom go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.69, Birmingham at 6, with the draw at 4.1.

West Brom are currently 2nd in the league, just 3 points off leaders Bournemouth. Birmingham are however 16th, after a miserable start. Indeed, in their last 5 league matches they have scored just 1 goal, which was a month ago today.

West Brom have conceded 3 goals in their last 5, and have one of the best defences in this division.

Therefore, I will be backing Both Teams To Score – ‘No’ at a decent price of 2.

Both Teams To Score – No

Backing ‘No’ offers decent value for this match at 2.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on BTTS ‘No’ at around 2 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If there are no goals in the first-half, this trade will be showing a profit, leading to:
– Close the trade to take the profit
– Left to run further on the expectation of one team not scoring

(b) If West Brom score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as flat leading to:
– Leave the trade open further on the expectation of Birmingham not scoring

(c) If Birmingham score first in the first-half, this position will be showing as negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Keep open on the expectation of West Brom not scoring

(d) If West Brom score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as positive still, leading to:

– Close the trade to take a profit, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Birmingham not scoring

(dii) If Birmingham score first in the second-half, this position will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Close the trade, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Brom not scoring


Date:11th – 14th OCTOBER 2021  – No Trade Day


League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE

Match:SPAIN v FRANCE

Date:10th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in a friendly in 2017, where Spain won 0-2.

– Spain have won 3, lost 1 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Spain have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Spain have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– France have won 2 and drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– France have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– France have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

France go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 2.68, Spain at 3.1, with the draw at 3.25.

Spain’s’ main striker in this competition, Ferran Torres (Manchester City) is a doubt for this match. He may well start, but looks to be carrying an injury that will hamper his attempts at breaching the French defence.

Against Belgium, France in the second-half looked good going forward, with Benzema, Griezmann and Mbappe all creating chances. They should have more than enough for the Spanish defence once they get the ball and move forward.

Spain just do not have enough in the final third compared to this French side.

Therefore, I will be backing France to win at a decent price of 2.68.

Match Odds – France

Backing ‘France’ offers decent value for this match at 2.68

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘France’ at around 2.68 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If France score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of France maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Spain score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of France equalizing and coming back

(bii) If  Spain score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of France coming back with two goals

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of France scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after


League: WORLD CUP QUALIFIER

Match: SCOTLAND v ISRAEL

Date: 9th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):17:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in March this year, in the reverse fixture of this qualification campaign, where the sides drew 1-1.

– Scotland have won 2, lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Scotland have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Scotland have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Israel have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Israel have seen over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Israel have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

Scotland go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.87, Israel at 5.1, with the draw at 3.65.

Scotland currently sit 2nd in this group on 11 points, with Israel in 3rd and just 1 point behind.

Both sides will not be keen to avoid defeat here against their main rivals for 2nd spot in a group that Denmark have run away with (18 points so far).

Scotland have recorded decent goals per game numbers, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per match. However they have recorded 2.33 in home matches, and scored in 4 of their last 5.

Israel have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches, but also have shown to have decent offensive options (Zahavi, Dabhur and Solomon) and have scored an average of 2.33 goals per match (2.67 away).

Israel have several issues in defence, with some key absentees, which Scotland should be able to exploit. Israel on the other hand may see this as an opportunity of using attack as their best form of defence against a home side that will be looking at going forward.

Therefore, backing ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ offers decent value at 2.08.

It should be noted that this market is not developed yet, but it is expected to be over 5k nearer to kick-off.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 2.08

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at around 2.3 before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Scotland score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Israel are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Israel score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Scotland scoring in the second-half, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 4+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


 WORLD CUP QUALIFIER

Match: CZECH REPUBLIC v WALES

Date: 9th OCTOBER 2021 Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in March this year, in the reverse fixture of this qualification campaign, where Wales won 1-0.

– Czech Republic have won 2, lost 2 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Czech Republic have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Czech Republic have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Wales have won 1, lost 2 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Wales have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Wales have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

Czech Republic go in to this match as favourites, currently priced at 1.85, Wales at 5.8, with the draw at 3.45.

Czech Republic currently sit 2nd in this group, with Wales in 3rd. However, they are both on 7 points, with Wales having played a match less.

Both sides will not be at full-strength due to injuries and illness. The most notable absentee is Gareth Bale for Wales, who has scored 3 goals and made 2 assists during this qualification group.  The other 2 goals scored by Wales during World Cup qualification have come from Daniel James (Leeds Utd) and Harry Wilson (Fulham) who should both be starting here.  Aaron Ramsey (Juventus) should also be returning.

Czech Republic meanwhile have scored 8 goals by 5 different players during qualification so far.

Although Wales will miss Bale for this match, they should have enough to get on the score-sheet against a team ranked 12 places lower than them, and that have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches.

Therefore, backing ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ offers decent value at 2.3.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 2.3

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at around 2.3 before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Czech Republic score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Wales are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Wales score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of Czech Republic scoring in the second-half, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 4+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE (SEMI-FINAL)

Match: BELGIUM v FRANCE

Date: 7th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met competitively was in the 2018 World Cup, where France won 1-0.

– Belgium have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Belgium have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Belgium have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– France have won 1, and drawn 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– France have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– France have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

France go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.7, Belgium at 3.05, with the draw at 3.25.

Belgium have so far in the UEFA Nations League tournament averaged 2.67 goals from 6 matches, whilst France have averaged 2. In terms of goals conceded, Belgium have averaged 1 goal a game, whilst France are slightly less on 0.83.

Belgium have scored in their last 27 home matches, whilst France have scored in their last 14 matches.

With both teams having strong attacks and goal scoring form, this trend looks set to continue in this intriguing semi-final match.

Therefore, backing ‘Both Teams To Score – Yes’ offers decent value at 2.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers decent value for this match at 2.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at around 2 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If France score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Belgium are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Belgium score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of France scoring in the second-half, or

(ii) Close the trade for a profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be 4+ for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss


League: UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE (SEMI-FINAL)

Match: ITALY v SPAIN

Date: 6th OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where the sides drew 1-1, with Italy winning on penalties (Euros 2020)

– Italy have won 1 and drawn 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Italy have seen under 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Italy have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Spain have won 2, lost 1 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Spain have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Spain have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

Italy go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.36, Spain at 3.85, with the draw at 3.15.

4 of the last 5 meetings have produced under 2.5 goals, and with this being a cagey semi-final, this trend looks set to continue.

This will be compounded with the absence of forwards (Immobile for Italy, and Morata for Spain). Spain also have a long list of absentees that were part of their Euro’s contingent.

Whilst Italy are favoured to win, draws in 4 of their last 5 matches doesn’t give enough confidence to back them outright. The under 2.5 goals market is also very low at just 1.53 to back.

Therefore, giving Italy their home advantage in front of their supporters in Milan, backing ‘Italy to qualify’ offers fair value at 1.73 (Betfair Exchange).

To Qualify – Italy

Backing ‘Italy’ offers fair value for this match at around 1.73.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Italy’ at around 1.73 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Italy score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Italy maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Spain score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Italy equalizing

(bii) If  Spain score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Italy coming back with a goal

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Italy scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after

(d) If it’s still level at full-time, this will go to extra-time (30 mins). Therefore,

– Keep the trade open on the expectation of Italy scoring, or

– If Spain look likely to score first, close the trade for scratch / minimal loss

(e) If it’s still level after extra-time, this will go to penalties. Therefore,

– Leave open on the expectation of Italy with their greater experience winning and qualifying


Date: 5th OCTOBER 2021 – No Trade Day


Date: 4th OCTOBER 2021 – No Trade Day


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: WEST HAM UNITED v BRENTFORD

Date: 3rd OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):14:00

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in July this year, where West Ham won 0-1 (Club friendly)

– West Ham have won 2, lost 1 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– West Ham have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brentford have won 1, lost 1 and drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brentford have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brentford have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Trading Markets Considered

West Ham go in to this match as favourites, priced at 1.93, Brentford at 4.7, with the draw at 3.65.

West Ham have shown solid home form, and have only lost once in their last 6 (Manchester United). They have also posted an xG of 11.13 after 6 matches.

West Ham should dominate the midfield with their defensive pairing (Rice & Soucek), and with Premier League top-scorer Antonio, should be too much for Brentford.

Therefore, backing ‘West Ham’ offers decent value at 1.93.

Match Odds – West Ham

Backing ‘West Ham’ offers good value for this match at around 1.93.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘West Ham’ at around 1.93 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Ham score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of West Ham maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Brentford score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of West Ham equalizing and coming back

(bii) If  Brentford score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of West Ham coming back with two goals

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of West Ham scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after


League: ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Match: BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION v ARSENAL

Date: 2nd OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):17:30

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in May this year, where Arsenal won 2-0 (Premier League)

– Brighton have won 3, lost 1 and drawn 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Brighton have seen both teams to score in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

– Arsenal have seen both teams to score in 1 of their last 5 matches (Premier League)

Trading Markets Considered

Arsenal go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.66, Brighton at 3.05, with the draw at 3.3.

Arsenal have had a tougher start to the season, with matches against Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham. Brighton last time out were fortunate to get a draw against Crystal Palace, with a 95 minute equalizer to get a 1-1.

In terms of xG, Brighton are on 6.58, whilst Arsenal are on 7. This looks to be a low-scoring match, but under 2.5 goals is just 1.86 to back.

With Arsenal looking to have turned a difficult corner and recording 3 wins from their last 3 matches, this trend looks set to continue.

Therefore, backing ‘Arsenal’ offers good value at 2.66.

Match Odds – Arsenal

Backing ‘Arsenal’ offers good value for this match at around 2.66.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Arsenal’ at around 2.66 before the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If Arsenal score first, this trade will be in a decent profit position, leading to:

– Close the trade to bank the profit, or

– Leave open for longer on the expectation of Arsenal maintaining the lead for greater profit

(bi) If Brighton score first (in the first-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Leave the trade open on the expectation of Arsenal equalizing and coming back

(bii) If  Brighton score first (in the second-half), this position will be negative, leading to:

– Close the trade to cut the loss, or

– Leave open on the expectation of Arsenal coming back with two goals

(c) If there are no goals in the first-half, this will be showing as flat/negative, leading to:

– Close the trade for small loss, or

– Leave the position to run further on the expectation of Arsenal scoring first in the second-half, and if so, close the trade soon after


League: ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

Match: STOKE CITY v WEST BROMWICH ALBION

Date: 1st OCTOBER 2021  Time (GMT):19:45

Key Match & Team Stats Summary:

– The last time these sides met was in January last year, where Stoke won 0-1 (Championship)

– Stoke have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– Stoke have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– Stoke have seen both teams to score in 4 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

– West Brom have won 2 and drawn 3 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– West Brom have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (Championship)

– West Brom have seen both teams to score in 3 of their last 5 matches (all competitions)

Trading Markets Considered

West Brom go in to this match as favourites, priced at 2.32, Stoke at 3.7, with the draw at 3.3.

Both sides are pushing for promotion to the Premier League, with West Brom top on 22 points and Stoke in 5th with just 4 points less after 10 matches played.

Stoke have averaged 1.8 goals scored in their home fixtures, and have scored in their last 10 (home) matches. West Brom have also been decent in scoring on their travels and have averaged 2 away goals per match, with their last outing seeing them beat Cardiff 0-4.

Therefore, backing ‘both teams to score’ offers good value at 1.94.

Both Teams To Score – Yes

Backing ‘Yes’ offers good value for this match at around 1.94.

Trade Entry Point:

It is advised to take a back position on ‘Yes’ at around 1.94 before (or shortly after) the start for 3 points.

Trade Exit Scenarios:

(a) If West Brom score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall, leading to:

(i) A small profit can be taken immediately, or

(ii) If Stoke are creating chances, wait until later for full trade profit

(b) If Stoke score first in the first-half, then it is expected that the price will fall by a greater amount, and a larger profit can be taken, leading to:

(i) Keep the position open on the expectation of West Brom scoring in the second-half, or

(ii) Close the trade for a decent profit

(c) If neither team has scored by half-time, the position will be showing as a negative. If the teams are both attacking, and appear to be looking for a goal then:

(i) The position should be left open on the expectation of goals to follow, or

(ii) If neither team have been creating chances (check shots on target stats – should be +6 for both teams in total), close the trade to minimize loss